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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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At 216 kind of similar to 1991 ........ nice little pool of -10s for the south of the uk 🙂

396EB745-2312-4DCC-9B91-A585B5F0488C.thumb.png.3286e6e532431df75a2bba5d9e81f605.png

C512C5AF-1D35-45E0-A81E-30F3204E685C.thumb.png.8fbb2f6ea7b57a2b6e2d8d157e8fb224.png

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Lovely ECM ! old GFS Is not too dissimilar and ECM is being consistent now

287484E7-523E-4E4A-AC80-84075A4BF64B.gif

F5320241-3804-4378-B3A1-16EAF94D611A.png

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I dont even really like easterlies but this still makes me excited. Would be heavy thundery showers in london by 220hrs

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The ecm op is following what the EC 46 dayer being alluding too, but having been badly bitten a few years back and ECM weakness by amplifying too much until we see cross model agreement specially the beast killer METO it’s just nice FI candy

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:shok:OMG more weather porn from the ECM!:yahoo:

 

The mild easterly is gone for good tonight!!!!:cold:

ECE1-216.png

ECE0-216.png

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2 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Really want that high to sit over Greenland and pull in a stonking Northerly.

Don’t want a Scandi High and East winds, can’t bear watching everyone getting feet of snow. 

Less Imbyism lol, though once the cold is established snowfall can crop up anywhere! 

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I'm just wondering if this projection of a easterly is a response to the 22nd of December SSW..

Just a thought. 

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sea-temperature (1).png

GFSOPEU00_0_35 (2).png

ECM1-216 (1).gif

Pass us the shovel john

..i cant seem 2 find my car!!!!!

Edited by tight isobar

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1 minute ago, snowray said:

:shok:OMG more weather porn from the ECM!:yahoo:

 

The mild easterly is gone for good tonight!!!!:cold:

ECE1-216.png

ECE0-216.png

Aye, Steve to see feet of snow, best location possible

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It's another beautiful ECM tonight, and good consistency with the morning's run. A little disappointing (if you like snow) not to have more cold in situ at T168 as the diving low is a fantastic snow opportunity, but the low itself is the trigger for a better easterly immediately after. 

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Just now, southbank said:

The ecm op is following what the EC 46 dayer being alluding too, but having been badly bitten a few years back and ECM weakness by amplifying too much until we see cross model agreement specially the beast killer METO it’s just nice FI candy

which ec46 ??  this ec run is for w/c 21st jan …….

btw, i agree re the amplification off the esb …….. need to see ukmo at least in agreement on the 00z run

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Just now, tight isobar said:

sea-temperature (1).png

GFSOPEU00_0_35 (2).png

ECM1-216 (1).gif

Could be retrogression to Greenland here allowing cold reinforcement from the north east then we are locked in for cold for a while.

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Als a cut off Greenland High at 216-

Rare as hen Twins with teeth !

430D96A5-60FF-4F76-B2D6-BE45586F18DB.thumb.jpeg.207b6266dcd4c2929b984bfa67e3e830.jpeg

 

very rare on this run  - its Iceland!

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Nice upper trough over the south = SNOW

image.thumb.png.c730bdbd408ef974e2266484604607a1.pngimage.thumb.png.9fc1260978665a7c936314edc28ebd0c.png

😎

Edited by Purga

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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

That is an immaculate conception! 🤣

talk about consistency! I was not expecting this at all must admit

103E7E1A-F687-48F4-A54A-88983506DB78.thumb.png.7f999e953802de8f583a7d0e7f9b038b.png

Praying at the garden of GEFSemane that that comes off!  

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6 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The GFS lovers were waiting to pounce if the ECM went balls up , but it’s holding strong it’s a stonker . 

ECM day 9 - amazing 👌

1776B12D-954F-419F-987B-6E1E4380C9DD.png

-11 uppers into mr Murr neck of the woods will have Him  yelling Boom

Edited by Winter Hill

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3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

The GFS lovers were waiting to pounce if the ECM went balls up , but it’s holding strong it’s a stonker . 

ECM day 9 - amazing 👌

1776B12D-954F-419F-987B-6E1E4380C9DD.png

That weather would do me fine, IC - but who are these 'GFS lovers' to whom you so fondly refer? Those who don't accept 'the GFS is always crap' to be the Word of God?

Get a grip, peeps, not all of us prefer 'outwitting' computer models to the real weather?:santa-emoji:

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Ignoring the mild 850s pilling in from the Atlantic.....the overall synoptic pattern is mint and should allow for continued cold air to eventually make it back into the mix.

97959137-4D05-46B9-B316-A90B362B7B5F.thumb.png.b910e4f21d5b2a4fda3a3fc875710071.png

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I was thinking how nice it would be to wake up tomorrow at six to find the overnight runs had actually upgraded for once this winter!...unfortunately, I think the bar has been set a little high this evening,. Be nice to go to work in a good mood for a change!

 

ECMOPEU12_240_1-5.png

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