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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Boom shake the room

EAE23843-2F43-4967-9352-19933517A12D.thumb.png.58ab2bb02f82c9c38c8f17735a6e5b90.png

Would this get snow south Steve? Everything (including meto) seems always a bit marginal? Sorry...bit of anoptimistic question at best!

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Oh er missus!! 

EC 168 should raise some eyebrows :0

20FCEA48-EB3C-45D2-A1EF-C0C913881CE0.thumb.png.e1186880425a1f10c0071cd64a6c6125.png

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Just now, Chertseystreamer79 said:

Would this get snow south Steve? Everything (including meto) seems always a bit marginal? Sorry...bit of anoptimistic question at best!

Marginal but yes supportive 🙂

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It's gone silly at 192!chart of the winter so far 😆

ECMOPEU12_192_1-2.png

Edited by KTtom

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T192 bringing in Easterly

image.thumb.jpg.d6a2d3afe830ebd18649f6b50bef3eed.jpg

Edit, adding T850s, going cold...

image.thumb.jpg.3a0b705ca443ca9ea4689bbb3b3dd737.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole

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25% confidence could be raised 

Fantastic stuff

DCBECA66-5288-43DD-9EA5-28DD1511B7BD.thumb.png.8213642558357403408f0293d0734a51.png

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Beautiful from the ECM. And this time the uppers of -10 are near. remarkable consistency between the 0z and 12z

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Lovely chart at T192, no mild easterly, heavy snow showers moving in from the North Sea.

Big big upgrade this and getting close to the reliable now.:oldgrin:

ECE1-192.png

ECE0-192-1.png

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A really clean evolution from the 12z ECM this evening, near perfect.

GFS very much trending the same way though is alot more delayed and subdued due to a far more relisiant PV over the Arctic.

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

25% confidence could be raised 

Fantastic stuff

DCBECA66-5288-43DD-9EA5-28DD1511B7BD.thumb.png.8213642558357403408f0293d0734a51.png

yeah which was 5 times more than normal,maybe upto 50% now 

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

25% confidence could be raised 

Fantastic stuff

DCBECA66-5288-43DD-9EA5-28DD1511B7BD.thumb.png.8213642558357403408f0293d0734a51.png

Now that’s what I call a beast from the east

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Big big changes we was looking at north westerlys a few days ago now easterlys but will it bring snow ...

IMG_0035.PNG

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EC 192 wettered.

synoptics great, those cold 850s incoming!

F3290E2C-AFA8-4F9A-86A0-AF1C22AC8E7A.thumb.png.d192f5652633eca10a1f4212894ad3cc.png

 

Edited by chris55

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T192 not t 300😄😄😄 ecm was the one to follow with the beast, let’s hope it’s the one to follow this time👍 

D295D41E-871E-478E-A3B8-E0E890A5F7D6.png

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Just now, snowice said:

BEAST FROM THE EAST 2.

uppers aren't quite as cold but it's getting much closer. But given its much earlier in the season, surface temps would be similar

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6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Well this will shut a few up 🙂

D0B8FC36-FE77-4633-A189-F64F9263E390.png

is that the mild easterly folk were moaning about earlier?

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2 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Big big changes we was looking at north westerlys a few days ago now easterlys but will it bring snow ...

IMG_0035.PNG

Abbie..thats txt book in more ways than the 1 snap..that is a convective..snow machine in the very making !!!!

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Southern Britain buried in snow or am I getting a head of myself.😬

Edited by abbie123

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I know it's exciting & all that, but simply posting 'beast from the east' with no other meat or bones is not acceptable. The post will go missing!

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1 minute ago, chris55 said:

EC 192 wettered.

synopics great, those cold 850s incoming!

F3290E2C-AFA8-4F9A-86A0-AF1C22AC8E7A.thumb.png.d192f5652633eca10a1f4212894ad3cc.png

 

Really want that high to sit over Greenland and pull in a stonking Northerly.

Don’t want a Scandi High and East winds, can’t bear watching everyone getting feet of snow. 

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