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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Nice to see something in the far reaches of the GFS that resembles what the anomaly charts have shown.

The pressure pushing into Greeland/Iceland region and away from the Azores certainly looks refreshing.

Also, even if FI, it shows a proper winter pattern, and what UK really needs to get a good cold spell.......forget the Atlantic slider games.

Edited by Lloyds32

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30 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

FAX for Friday, decent, not like GFS which gives me a wet day, way too progressive, this looks mostly dry away from far SW

fax84s.gif?1

528 through midway across the country. Not seen that for a fair while. 

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Just now, Leo97t said:

lol i agree that i think the gfs solution is more likely than the ECM. But seriously the gfs consistent? Must be a troll post...

It's been consistent in showing the least wintry mid term output... 

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6 minutes ago, jayb1989 said:

You have to admire the consistency of the GFS, sticking to it’s guns again. Looking favourable now that high pressure will be closer to us than the ECM has been showing. 

I notice Matt Hugo has recently said on twitter he is now favouring the GFS output for early next week as well. 

Hard not to feel a bit disaapointed.

Underststment if gfs wins out. As someone else pointed out if there's a lesser more boring  Pattern shown in the minority sods law is it will manifest over any more interesting forecasts 

 

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Looks like ECM is now blowing up Fridays low.:olddoh:

ECM1-72.gif

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's been consistent in showing the least wintry mid term output... 

Crewe it’s been woeful the last few days . Even the stats that someone posted earlier, it was close to navgem 😂

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Just now, bluearmy said:

cant you lot at at least wait twenty minutes to see what ec op does with the weekend ??

Im actually more bothered about the ECM eps mean than the op at this stage.

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1 minute ago, snowray said:

Looks like ECM is now blowing up Fridays low.:olddoh:

ECM1-72.gif

looks similar to yesterdays 12z op and the icon, ukmo ……….

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Just looked at the GEFS 12z mean and to me it indicates predominantly cool / cold zonality with occasional milder interludes but more emphasis on colder towards the end.

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4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Crewe it’s been woeful the last few days . Even the stats that someone posted earlier, it was close to navgem 😂

It can be as woeful as it likes globally but all that matters is what we experience here in UK. The average Joe doesn't give a hoot over nwp stats, just whether it's a. Cold and b. Snowy... A misplaced slider may not mean much to global verification stats but it means everything to weather on the ground for our patch. 

Edited by CreweCold

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

looks similar to yesterdays 12z op and the icon, ukmo ……….

Bang in line with yesterday’s 12z run 

00574A37-CE15-4F4D-913A-4B01767343DA.png

6ACAD834-4069-43DD-9F59-9DB3A2467B23.png

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13 minutes ago, jayb1989 said:

You have to admire the consistency of the GFS, sticking to it’s guns again. Looking favourable now that high pressure will be closer to us than the ECM has been showing. 

I notice Matt Hugo has recently said on twitter he is now favouring the GFS output for early next week as well. 

Hard not to feel a bit disaapointed.

Not sure why you would be disappointed when we are talking about stuff for next week. It’s wednesday for crying out loud, next week is fi and will chop and change as we all know

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Thursday, 2 days away, not going to being the country to a standstill, but nice to see for some all the same.

 

BE17E059-62A7-4596-9A8D-A402D66A2973.gif

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8 minutes ago, snowray said:

Looks like ECM is now blowing up Fridays low.:olddoh:

ECM1-72.gif

No it’s not

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7 minutes ago, snowray said:

Looks like ECM is now blowing up Fridays low.:olddoh:

ECM1-72.gif

at day 4, the system is discreet compared to being the trough extension as was showing before …….. 

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It can be as woeful as it likes globally but all that matters is what we experience here in UK. The average Joe doesn't give a hoot over nwp stats, just whether it's a. Cold and b. Snowy... A misplaced slider may not mean much to global verification stats but it means everything to weather on the ground for our patch. 

Yer that’s very true but I think the gfs has move towards the ecm solution through today . 75/25 blend in favour of ecm

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3 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Not sure why you would be disappointed when we are talking about stuff for next week. It’s wednesday for crying out loud, next week is fi and will chop and change as we all know

Tuesday***

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7 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Not sure why you would be disappointed when we are talking about stuff for next week. It’s wednesday for crying out loud, next week is fi and will chop and change as we all know

Yes things have gone wrong in the past at T72, let alone T120.

Looking ok now, big relief, similar to UKMO.

ECE1-120.png

Edited by snowray

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Supprised to see the snow depth forecast from the Euro4 for Thursday afternoon! Surely this is overdone ?

54A2CA59-C848-47F9-A205-0C3DA062C4A1.jpeg

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ECM day 6 looks good to me! (Need to click image!!!!!)

ECMOPEU12_144_1.png

Edited by mulzy

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