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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This is why the models have suddenly flipped to that sharp NW > SE allignment

If you are looking for sustained cold then a SSW split + follow up warmings & continual negative zonal winds are the hallmarks of LONG cold spells, * with the usual caveat that we are the SW point of the cold & could always see some milder air pushing back west *

This could be a crippling final quarter of Winter for Europe & the Balkans- 

Best

S

Fantastic post as ever Steve.  ?

Just hope we are included with Europe and were not forgotten... ?

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24 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

GFS Parallel is on steroids on the 12hr run ...cold and then severe cold at the end

That one caught me out too, CM...I was just about to make a post saying how 'consistent with 06Z' it is!:wallbash:

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as i cant see the GFS 12hr Parallel  ..looking at the all the 12hr ensembles virtually all are showing major height rises spinning out of the Pacific up into Alaska and the arctic..forcing cold air out into N.America ..the further the west this push the colder it will get in Europe and the UK ..IMO looking from over here.

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1 minute ago, No Balls Like Snow Balls said:

Awkward!! ?

Not talking about what your on about mate!! 

Anyhoo  really glad to see things looking up, be good to have something worth remembering this winter, like last, cold winters tend to come in clumps, it's no coincidence they tend to come during Low sun patterns. . . 

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

ECM Mean taking its time ? 

I’m hoping the Op was a warm outlier ? if it’s not a cold outlier I’ll be very pleasantly surprised!!

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

ECM Mean taking its time ? 

I think its the big freeze that the models are sensing is on its way!causing the systems to freeze and crash already!!expect short to medium term upgrades from tomorrow!!

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Looks like all pieces of the pie have come together and we finally have cross model agreement on drastic changes occuring during the last 1/3 of the month. Really interesting few months coming up after such an incredibly slow moving winter. 

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5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

ECM mean T240 . What do we think ? Looks a bit ?

92BF1B3D-22E6-4646-9997-9F1AF0F54061.png

No better than the 00z , and no where near as good as the Op or GEFS...One day we’ll get cross model agreement at the 10 day point!! Op May still have it nailed though, roughly anyway!!

Edited by Ali1977
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22 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

ECM mean T240 . What do we think ? Looks a bit ?

92BF1B3D-22E6-4646-9997-9F1AF0F54061.png

1035 Arctic high and suggestions of a sliding Atlantic low from NW to SE, showing elongation along that axis.

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6 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

1035 Arctic high and suggestions of a sliding Atlantic low from NW to SE, showing elongation along that axis.

Yep i agree  also shows perhaps the op is a few days early in its evolution compared to the other ensembles   its looks all good to me. 

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10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

The graph has finally updated

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.51e3d82e8c82ff22aa25ca05a9cc5ebd.png

The mean and op are reasonably close until around the 17th before a big gap at the very end

Not unexpected Gav. Pretty much exactly the date I thought it might go off. Trend setter perhaps ?

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11 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

1035 Arctic high and suggestions of a sliding Atlantic low from NW to SE, showing elongation along that axis.

It looks similar to the slider we had back last December 

AVN_1_2017121000_1.png

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3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Yep i agree  also shows perhaps the op is a few days early in its evolution compared to the other ensembles   its looks all good to me. 

Yer I remember last Feb/March the op was a little early bringing in the cold , I think @bluearmy  mentioned this the other day . So yes nothing really changes . It’s all good in the hood ?

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