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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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2 minutes ago, bigsnow said:

im no map reader but last time i looked Germany was land locked with no coast..

Most of it is land locked but it has got a small area of coast to the North sliced by its border with Denmark.

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Just about every 18z GFS ensembles powers up the vortex and has either a +ve AO, or a super +ve AO....

Got to think something has gone whack with this set of runs, for it to be SO different from other runs is not giving a lot of confidence.

 

Edited by kold weather
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Awwww my post has been removed lol.  Anyway every time i look at the GFS i think this can't be right.  The lack of human correction over the pond must be having an impact so i am more confused than ever.

However I can't totally dismiss it so I am still not shouting about any snow chances to my friends Imby but am convinced we are going to get quite cold.

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

I was actually exspecting worse . So are take that as a positive. 

A lot of the scatter is from quite fast moving lows bringing down brief NW airflows that don't really embed at all. A few colder runs but even they are pretty tame all things being said.

Compared to the ECM ensembles, they are truly dreadful, having looked through them all...only a few have anything remotely looking good in the long term.

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4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Some scatter there.

image.thumb.png.8681e76f1bed8ff5ba1d8e9c8a76a7b9.png

Looks like good agreement there for the no slider with the 850 temps getting to zero now for us!!so maybe ecm and ukmo are too far west!!shame really!!on the 12z there were still quite a few members going for the slider and a bigger scatter but they all gone now mate!!

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1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

image.thumb.png.2e50d98e32e04bdf15b14dede11889e9.png

18z swingometer tones down the northern blocking and a lot of zonality in the ens members.

Will GFS end up with egg on its face or has it pulled off a major feat? We probably won't find out for a little while longer.

As long as we don't know if GFS is affected by the shutdown, we have to assume that it is, so not in its best conditions. That's why I won't use it too much for any stable forecasts atm

regards

Edited by Vikos
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16 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

On this note, I wish you goodnight 

183297E9-EE1D-434D-BCF6-729D589F17F5.thumb.gif.73c310a1590b2e0c66c1c417e7899654.gif

STUNNING!

Close to -20c ? 

Bloomin heck Karlos, daytime max minus 8C, in the heat zone of London, that is day after tomorrow stuff as far as our little islands are concerned... I'll be trying to hunt this member down in the morning! 

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3 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Bloomin heck Karlos, daytime max minus 8C, in the heat zone of London, that is day after tomorrow stuff as far as our little islands are concerned... I'll be trying to hunt this member down in the morning! 

Haha I wish we could see the synoptic chart for that run, unbelieveable! I'll try and find it on the US weather website! 

Ah!... the furthest I can look at individual ensemble members is January 24th....

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Quite amazing to still see these marked differences within such a short timeframe .

Then later on the ECM and GFS are worlds apart with the PV. One side note just reading the MJO update the forecaster mentioned a disconnect between what the models are showing for most of the USA and what they’d expect given the forecast for the MJO in phases 4 to 7.

The MJO suggests warmer , the models suggest colder .

 

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4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Quite amazing to still see these marked differences within such a short timeframe .

Then later on the ECM and GFS are worlds apart with the PV. One side note just reading the MJO update the forecaster mentioned a disconnect between what the models are showing for most of the USA and what they’d expect given the forecast for the MJO in phases 4 to 7.

The MJO suggests warmer , the models suggest colder .

 

Which one would we prefer for the states and which one would help us?

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7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Bloomin heck Karlos, daytime max minus 8C, in the heat zone of London, that is day after tomorrow stuff as far as our little islands are concerned... I'll be trying to hunt this member down in the morning! 

If you find it please share ??

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Quite amazing to still see these marked differences within such a short timeframe .

Then later on the ECM and GFS are worlds apart with the PV. One side note just reading the MJO update the forecaster mentioned a disconnect between what the models are showing for most of the USA and what they’d expect given the forecast for the MJO in phases 4 to 7.

The MJO suggests warmer , the models suggest colder .

 

I suspect the shunt south of the lobes of  trop PV over N America and Europe by coupling with splitting troughs in the lower stratosphere negate the effects of the MJO imprint over coming days, SSW reversal dripping down perhaps overriding the MJO signal. The strat impacts fighting against the MJO imprint on the trop probably leading to some uncertain modelling for sure.

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Which one would we prefer for the states and which one would help us?

If the MJO isn’t impacting the USA as would be expected then it shouldn’t be effecting Europe either in the normal manner .

It’s currently weakening before re emerging in 3 or 4 depending on which model . 

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1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

If you find it please share ??

You would need upper air temps of about minus 20 850hpa to see day time max of minus 8c in London I would imagine. Astonishing, but I think the first half  of Feb has the coldest ever lowest mean of  max temps at about minus 6.6 C, can't remember how far back that was  but it certainly possible to see extreme temps lol

Edited by SLEETY
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