Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Message added by Paul

Recommended Posts

36 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I would have to say the ECM mean does look good at 240 hrs. ..However higher heights to the North would be welcome

Build it (the cold) and they will come, JS; the writing's on the wall...Stick with what the teleconnections are indicating, long term, and you'll not go far wrong...interim model-variance is par for the course...👍

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The issue is, given what we saw unfold stratospherically, we cannot be surprised by some of the less appealing trop output we see currently. 

Interitus (I think) showed a 3D plot of the predicted downwelling and it clearly showed daughter vortices across Canada and Scandinavia, with mid latitude blocking being suppressed into the Atlantic/to our SW. Now what do we see in the trop modelling at present... Yep you guessed it. It was well advertised. Along with the Arctic high. 

Patience is required here as I believe the next stage will be a decent Scandi HP into February. Why? Because that is where strat events map us to next. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

The issue is, given what we saw unfold stratospherically, we cannot be surprised by some of the less appealing trop output we see currently. 

Interitus (I think) showed a 3D plot of the predicted downwelling and it clearly showed daughter vortices across Canada and Scandinavia, with mid latitude blocking being suppressed into the Atlantic/to our SW. Now what do we see in the trop modelling at present... Yep you guessed it. It was well advertised. Along with the Arctic high. 

Patience is required here as I believe the next stage will be a decent Scandi HP into February. Why? Because that is where strat events map us to next. 

If we could still just get some sort of Greeny first, we might get a trop led Greeny, if we could, i really think this could be up there with one of the greatest second halves of winter since records began, as it is, we still have a chance of a whitening.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The fact of the matter is we've been seeing boom charts at day 10+ for what seems like an eternity now. ECM day 10 is decent-it's always decent. I said 3 days ago that Greenland heights, or any appreciable northern blocking was off the table for the time being... And well, here we are. 

It will come, but we're looking closer to February now. 

Since when have we been seeing boom charts on the ECM prior to the last few runs? It has pretty much down sod all for most of the winter so far.

The cold has been showing in FI to land between the 18th - 20th for the past 7 days on the GFS and now all models are showing this with snow opportunities popping up in the nearer time frames as well.

It is coming, 1987 it may not be but at least we have a chance of the white stuff.....better than 10c and cloudy. 

Edited by Radiating Dendrite

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If we could still just get some sort of Greeny first, we might get a trop led Greeny, if we could, i really think this could be up there with one of the greatest second halves of winter since records began, as it is, we still have a chance of a whitening.

Yes there is a chance in the mean time... Absolutely.

A trop led Greeny would suit me down to the ground (as it would many others). 

But I think its fair to temper some expectations of brutal cold in the next couple of weeks. Of course we may all see some snow but it's not as nailed on as the end game (main course) , which is at least 2 weeks away in my honest opinion. 

Edited by CreweCold

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

My god is this a weather forum or a weather models rehab forum? The signal for Greenland blocking has only strenghthened on this evenings runs. 

ECM

3DBCB396-7462-439D-931C-E437DC8317EA.thumb.png.8770bbf2ce0767b83385b36bf2d652f0.png

GFS

5A96BAD0-9212-495D-A876-B3219A162A58.thumb.png.8c568366214f80612fcbc3a0f5060413.png

I’m not seeing whats changed? The next 1/2 weeks always looked cold zonal, the EC op shows a few snow events in the next 7-10 days.

The next two weeks never really looked to be anything more than cold zonal/slider lows but now we’re seeing signs of proper blocking towards the end of the month. 

Below average across all models for the foreseeable, snow producing cold for much of that time, too  

Deep cold BFTE? No. But that was never in the offering, anyway. 

Don’t follow every single ops run. Stick with the ensembles and you’ll have a much smoother ride..

 

Great to see that the ECM has got it nailed again, Daniel...Bin the GFS, it's crap; heights near Greenland are far too intense. Expect it to move towards the euros!:santa-emoji:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not feeling the love from the models (yet) in terms of much lying snow imminent apart from the northern elevations and prone spots. The ground is not that cold and we need a few solid frosts over a few consecutive nights.

This thread does get contradictory but I guess that is down to human, rather than model bias in many cases.

To me, looking at all current model output, the direction of travel is good but more of a rollercoaster than a log flume drop.

What a week coming up of political theatre and model drama. Plenty of uncertainties with both. Nothing will be agreed until everything is agreed.........

18Z's coming out soon and I think we need to keep the ICON interest alive, as it did well last March with its modelling of the cold/snow as I remember.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just a note that slp above 1030 mb in the greeny regions remains under 10% chance pre day 15 on the eps

i think a strong greeny ridge is week 3 if it comes ......in the meantime. I don’t see any issues with a southerly jet into a Euro trough with wedges keeping us on the right side of incoming systems .....but that is a risky scenario for the southern half of the uk ....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very interesting weather on the way colder later this week with a  chance of some snow it's the following week I think the real cold and snow will hit long range BBC weather just said very wintery weather on way with low pressure slides under the high pressure  a lot of snow...

IMG_0029.PNG

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Best ICON run of the last few days coming up - pity its only to 120!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Right the Icon has fired up 🚀

Lets reset & go again.

Just a reminder the boom charts are at day 10 'as well as' day 4...

Plenty of anow about this week, Thursday seems trough day to me!!

 

Not like you Steve to forget how to spell snow model fatigue maybe setting in have a break mate cold is coming snow will follow 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

This might be rubbish, but I can't help but think, had these same synoptics occurred in the 90's and especially 80's, there would have been a greater chance of countrywide snow events, particularly for the southern half of the country with less marginal temperatures?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The signal has been there over the past week or so in Fl for colder charts to show,then to be dropped,it always happens,then to be picked up closer the time(near term upgrades),there will always be chopping and changing from one day to another that always happens and never all the big three show consistancy even out past 96hrs esp when it comes to pin pointing trough disruption,remember that ecm easterly!,i think it was 72 hrs away and it was a no go

anyway looking at some of the latest stuff just in and i like the look of the 8-14 day cpc anomoly,a true arctic high there with pos link up from the atlantic high,trough dropping down into Europe with pos easterlies to follow

814day_03.thumb.gif.128bcf2ec632196e9925cbe482401297.gif

latest NAO/AO

the NAO still on neutral territory whereas the AO shows a dip into neg territory with three members gunning for -5

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.74d7d7fa8e5299f08195d4bef10518db.gifao.sprd2.thumb.gif.c96cec7407b2d2b8f0718fe8c4e15d88.gif

Dutch ecm ens

the temps are cold and the wind direction has progressed over the last few days with regards to an easterly element to them

eps_pluim_tt_06260.thumb.png.5d3fc4d47e3ab5f44a945a142291b545.pngeps_pluim_dd_06260.thumb.png.1cb8f6a4e41f9c9392b63cf8cda7609f.png

a final note to visiters new or old that have just come on here or have just logged in.look at all the posts from today on previous pages cos there is some very good info for newbies and the like,i wish that i have the knowledge of some people on here but i don't,probably due to more commitments i suppose🤔

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Best ICON run of the last few days coming up - pity its only to 120!

Steve its sliding!!!looks amazing!!no more oval shape low!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have been reading more about the SSW 

And what i didn't find out was .

If there was a Greenland high

Or a scandi high already in place would this be helped by the effects of the SSW 

Or wouldn't it make a different .

 

 

Edited by sorepaw1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ICON 18Z - More negative tilt on the low/greater chance of a snow event THIS Friday!! Lovely Jubbly!!

Before image.thumb.png.1ade19b385a56da086cb03a40400aeb2.png
 

After image.thumb.png.f9eb01296af4b31a0c895a414baa360d.png

Edited by PerfectStorm

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Don said:

This might be rubbish, but I can't help but think, had these same synoptics occurred in the 90's and especially 80's, there would have been a greater chance of countrywide snow events, particularly for the southern half of the country with less marginal temperatures?

But we haven't had the snow yet, so how can you pass that judgement? Let's wait and see first!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

But we haven't had the snow yet, so how can you pass that judgement? Let's wait and see first!

Lol quite right!  However, my point was, the chances of getting more countrywide snow events would probably have been greater from the upcoming synoptics (if they come off as predicted), with cooler global temps etc.  Like you say, though, lets wait and see!

Edited by Don

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

I have been reading more about the SSW 

And what i didn't find out was .

If there was a Greenland high

Or a scandi high already in place would this be helped by the effects of the SSW 

Or wouldn't it make a different .

 

 

A Scandi high can often be the trigger for a SSW, via wave 2 pulses, the infamous exceptional Jan 1987 severe cold and snow via a robust Scandi high actually occurred prior to a SSW a few weeks later.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Yes but temperatures are set to start falling away from later this coming week, only a few days away. It is a gradual downward trend in temperatures and a gradual increase in snow risks rather than a sudden plunge into a freeze. A slow process, but potentially prolonged. A messy picture, which raises the risk of conditions being the wrong side of marginal at times but also should bring more opportunities for wintriness rather than being cold but dry, with things less marginal later in the period.

Yes, I think that's the best anyone can say right now; downward trend in temperatures, a spell of cold zonality (caveat alert - WNW bias, not W to E conventional tracking), with marginal 850s - and yes, before people jump on me, I know we don't need -10s due to polar maritime LP tracking, however they will STILL be marginal and hit and miss - bringing the usual challenges for UKMO in such messy situations. At least it won't be the wrong kind of snow (no powder snow, more traditional wet compacted stuff) where it does fall. Whether it settles is another point altogether, elevation will be your friend (hello Buxton). 

All looking fairly standard fayre in the mid term, with at least some snow to satisfy the starved, beyond that, no one knows. However the winter bar of expectation has definitely been lowered in the MME. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...