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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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16 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I already did, but to clear it up.

UKMO and ECM in agreement at +72 - +120 at least. With those two in agreement I would be extremely surprised if the GFS is correct. It was also at the top (mild) of its members for that time frame. 

Whats your reasons for believing it to be correct? 

 Cheers

Karl

Contrary to most on here, it does model the NE USA, Greenland better than the Euros...Rmet have a link to local verification, the NOAA page is currently down. I feel gfs 8times out of 10 shows a change in the Eastern us Area it is correct...Remember the GP torpedo which was sending cold our way......only for the gfs to start a shortwave hysteria in here as it modeled it stopping build of heights over Greenland causing fury in here....think 2014 or 2015.....Why do I believe it to be correct now.....It is modeling the Canadian lobe correctly, jet energy will be stronger than modeled by Euros which will see the short term pattern flat......we will see very soon.

Edited by FiftyShadesofSnow

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Deary me it has all gone a bit Pete Tong in here...

All looks rosey for here in Scotland - snow on the way if the ECM and GFS prove correct!

The CFS has this nailed for all the UK and Ireland - only at +870h! 😂

Lovely stuff! ☃️

83252940-27F2-4E92-9E4D-0B0034776671.png

0F6F16DB-EB25-4293-A60C-E56CDE9729B7.png

Edited by Mr Frost

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Just now, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

ensembles GEM 12z

gens-0-1-216.thumb.png.e5ec9ec5255cc82fd3b1f8622d23e115.pnggens-0-1-228.thumb.png.1526d22ba2551f9ec6289cdb903b7b75.pnggens-0-1-240.thumb.png.5a669fbcadeb944f8524cd78c5290675.pnggens-5-1-228.thumb.png.ee76881eff29178c2068dfe0372153de.pnggens-5-1-240.thumb.png.0788cc86b7b26daac9e7f9c7ba8338d3.pnggens-8-1-228.thumb.png.9261cfb0773ab6ba800f09d774259b9f.png     

gens-8-1-240.thumb.png.38952b1b40a3ec4852b493a363a5408e.pnggens-8-1-252.thumb.png.64c2331c1eda8ac7ad246971edddb9cc.pnggens-9-1-216.thumb.png.dce490abe873649a470b5c0f719e84b8.pnggens-9-1-228.thumb.png.2c1dca3f8e6e87cf53f4e85b9043ca54.pnggens-12-1-216.thumb.png.a25f83b77e4010eee493ec4825afd246.pnggens-12-1-228.thumb.png.014c34fa290d37976a0a0d85be5f3767.png    

gens-17-1-240.thumb.png.f684a32e70da8a9cda230d9d4e69e314.pnggens-17-1-252.thumb.png.8e386412f05437f5ef75c30c4b5aa802.pnggens-17-1-264.thumb.png.160fa6537a12c8a58cad3a7348a8a084.pnggens-19-1-252.thumb.png.0363ae3669acfc2ba6c926fc38e88b5a.pnggensnh-20-1-300.thumb.png.4515c41aa5d9fb62b08a677b2a273e08.pnggensnh-20-1-384.thumb.png.63d968d2b03548cdf2b3c0efc53578f0.png      

sliders anyone? 😁

ensemble NAEFS 12z 228h naefsnh-0-0-228.thumb.png.6b0ef0e1a15f066020c99942445ff12e.png end of the run 682283441_naefsnh-0-0-384(1).thumb.png.6c3f89e14913f983db274bf370a949ba.png signal remains for Greenland / northern blocking.

ensemble ECMWF/IFS 12z 240h 759723931_EDH101-240(1).thumb.gif.add204f90b0d941ce2c6d71cbf1887c5.gif 

ensembles FNMOC/NOGAPS 12z

gens-1-1-288.thumb.png.b0b06a89a0a86fa4afd2998a265a50c2.pnggens-1-1-312.thumb.png.3c88a241cd74ba921dc724ea3d309150.pnggens-6-1-252.thumb.png.616182c7a0b09c949224ccaa3a6f5b75.pnggens-6-1-276.thumb.png.7ddd37cdaa705f74cf39a82ceeb3bc41.pnggens-0-3-384.thumb.png.4bb66426130f2859849c1168d6e89509.pnggens-1-3-300.thumb.png.e130ef0b8ba821c2377a5b46370919a7.png       

gens-5-3-348.thumb.png.d6c8577f9877adef4c72ded15ea69d21.pnggens-6-3-276.thumb.png.cd1952a622d877c717766de5928e04ff.pnggens-7-3-360.thumb.png.33ea1abc8bc71191d2781358b3d38788.png   

 

Now they are a bunch of charts I’d take, can we have them all please starting the weekend for the next couple of weeks?

seriously though all we no at this stage is it’s going to turn much colder and there will be a decent chance of snow from around Friday and more especially into the following week.

the excitement is slowly starting to take hold just hope we all have a decent dump out of it with the exception to the mild crew within the group

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ECM 46 day model updates tonight at around 10pm, I think? Should be good.

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Just now, MattStoke said:

ECM 46 day model updates tonight at around 10pm, I think? Should be good.

Tomorrow Matt

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18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I fear some are steady suffering from imbyism........ let’s not judge the outlook based on the likelihood that it is more likely /not likely to bring wintry conditions to your backyard 

get the cold in and watch the surprises unfold

excellwnt ec mean to day 10 - bang in line with expectations although a huge spread to our west probably reflects the clusters with a more amplified ridge against a flatter nw/se jet as per the 00z op 

Yeah I think there is certainly some interest out there.

Also worth noting for all that when you've got disrupting troughs and a surface flow coming from Europe you don't need to have 'that' cold of an airflow aloft, -4/5C would probably do it even at the start of a cold spell.

Finally, the 12z op was probably in the top 3/4 most 'boring' runs out there, for good or for bad there was some utterly ridiculous runs, my favourite being P5, which drops a 935mbs PV vortex over the UK and a right royal mix of wintry weather. There are also some really amazing snowy runs in there.

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Tomorrow Matt

Damn. Could have sworn it was on a Sunday. Thanks.

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1 hour ago, BlackburnChris said:

prectypeuktopo.png 4 days away.

The FV3 precip data is slightly different to the live GFS and our system isn't handling that well currently, so I'd tend to take precip charts from it with a massive pinch of salt for now. What you're seeing there is basically a few time slots worth of precip in one go..

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15 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Contrary to most on here, it does model the NE USA, Greenland better than the Euros...Rmet have a link to local verification, the NOAA page is currently down. I feel gfs 8times out of 10 shows a change in the Eastern us Area it is correct...Remember the GP torpedo which was sending cold our way......only for the gfs to start a shortwave hysteria in here as it modeled it stopping build of heights over Greenland causing fury in here....think 2014 or 2015.....Why do I believe it to be correct now.....It is modeling the Canadian lobe correctly, jet energy will be stronger than modeled by Euros which will see the short term pattern flat......we will see very soon.

In fairness, even its own ensembles are much more amplified than the GFS operational run. Not to say its wrong of course, but that really should throw at least some uncertainty into what it is showing.

I'd not look beyond 144hrs with any faith at the moment, you'd only need the models to be over-estimating the energy coming SE and the whole situation will shift over our shores in terms of where the surface cold is located.

Nick, I agree, I wouldn't be surprised if something like that occurs, even if we don't get any great cold afterwards.

Edited by kold weather

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The fact of the matter is we've been seeing boom charts at day 10+ for what seems like an eternity now. ECM day 10 is decent-it's always decent. I said 3 days ago that Greenland heights, or any appreciable northern blocking was off the table for the time being... And well, here we are. 

It will come, but we're looking closer to February now. 

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7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The fact of the matter is we've been seeing boom charts at day 10+ for what seems like an eternity now. ECM day 10 is decent-it's always decent. I said 3 days ago that Greenland heights, or any appreciable northern blocking was off the table for the time being... And well, here we are. 

It will come, but we're looking closer to February now. 

But we are now starting to see better charts before day 10.

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A familiar ext EPS this evening; High amplification upstream with the east Pacific ridge into the Arctic and the vortex/trough down eastern North America. Ergo still a lot of energy exiting the eastern seaboard around the Bermuda high pressure down to the European trough now tending a tad south of the UK. But some of the energy diverges around the still pronounced ridge Iceland/east Greenland. so still portending unsettled and colder than average but a tricky surface analysis which the det. runs will need to sort

8-14.thumb.png.373782e8f05252060284903d6f08e74d.png

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14 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The fact of the matter is we've been seeing boom charts at day 10+ for what seems like an eternity now. ECM day 10 is decent-it's always decent. I said 3 days ago that Greenland heights, or any appreciable northern blocking was off the table for the time being... And well, here we are. 

It will come, but we're looking closer to February now. 

Yes but temperatures are set to start falling away from later this coming week, only a few days away. It is a gradual downward trend in temperatures and a gradual increase in snow risks rather than a sudden plunge into a freeze. A slow process, but potentially prolonged. A messy picture, which raises the risk of conditions being the wrong side of marginal at times but also should bring more opportunities for wintriness rather than being cold but dry, with things less marginal later in the period.

Edited by MattStoke

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11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The fact of the matter is we've been seeing boom charts at day 10+ for what seems like an eternity now. ECM day 10 is decent-it's always decent. I said 3 days ago that Greenland heights, or any appreciable northern blocking was off the table for the time being... And well, here we are. 

It will come, but we're looking closer to February now. 

At no point did anyone in here did claim that heights into Greenland in next week would be primarily route especially with background signals. Day 10 charts which you mention to be "boom" are more likely than any point this winter so far. Only model that consistently had heights into Greenland by mid Jan was the ever atrocious CFS, says a lot. Michael Ventrice on Twitter today did mention the lag on trop impact between SSW warming over Siberia in comparison to SSW over NA (like Feb 2018). The impacts are not felt until 20-30 days after warming - taking us to last week of Jan. That makes US guys also keen on cold last week of Jan into Feb.

Edited by Bullseye
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11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The fact of the matter is we've been seeing boom charts at day 10+ for what seems like an eternity now. ECM day 10 is decent-it's always decent. I said 3 days ago that Greenland heights, or any appreciable northern blocking was off the table for the time being... And well, here we are. 

It will come, but we're looking closer to February now. 

That may be the case, but Greenland blocking isn’t the only deliverable for cold and snow for the UK Crewe. Obviously a Greeny block is the holy grail, but if we have to wait so be it. 

After all Wedges make sledges 🛷 🤙

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