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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    At D9 the GFS and ECM:

    1702828699_gfs-0-216(1).thumb.png.8e79c49651776791109194562457b542.png845281004_ECM1-216(1).thumb.gif.0b7e12e19531c26553910d812c13a057.gif

    ECM still sending chunks of the Canadian vortex rather than systems so better than the GFS. Just do not want further corrections towards the GFS tomorrow, though the GFS 12z was an outlier synoptic wise so unlikely?

    Rare to see another incoming D10 ECM promising chart though!!!

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    So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

    I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

    It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire

    The ECM is about 200 miles to the East compared to the 0z. Still a similar evolution, just a matter of positioning.

    EDIT - as the 240 shows.

    Edited by ukpaul
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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Could be a few days pain for long term gain, continued signs that Canadian vortex lobe is beginning to wain, it’s having one last spew at us before it skulks off! Keep that HP to our west and pressure low to our south and we will be in business eventually.

    This actually echos what the UKM long Rangers must be saying as their outlooks kind of point to it being mixed to begin with, with increasingly cold/very cold conditions as we head into late month, heads up, nothing to worry about yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    1 minute ago, Johnp said:

    Am I the only one who thinks this is a decent ECM?

    At day 9 it's really not that different to this morning's.

    Yes John it is a good run . You were always gonna get the downgrade posts bla bla bla . Variations of the same theme . 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    image.jpg

    image.jpg

    ECM T240, underlining yet again all roads lead to cold with this post SSW setup.

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    Just now, karlos1983 said:

    Never mind potential, ECM D10 I’ll rip your hand off thanks!

    F7CB198C-9C69-4D52-8703-C3D27ADB1EDF.thumb.png.59070682289d6604763de225cf3c6408.pngE1ECF9E4-11E2-4DC1-AB8D-87AEF52527CA.thumb.png.9e5257c85be38f78b51cd7bc3d239eb1.png

    Yep got there in the end mate , O/T C Fawkes thinking the week after next could be interesting ……….Lets hope GFS can get to grips with things later 

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    240 doesn't end bad at all...stationery front with increasing continental air into the mix - so possible snow for some lucky people (central/eastern areas?).

    Only annoying part is the continuation of low heights near to Iceland and Greenland...

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    9 minutes ago, Dennis said:

    Look to situation next friday/saturday could give headbreaks for snow

    nmm-17-119-0.png

    Head breaks or heartbreaks ? Headaches certainly for forecastsers and heart ache for some on here I reckon. Will likely come down to 24hrs or less before and the high res models to place the rough snow line. 

    Edited by Tim Bland
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK

    Hoping for a chunk of cold to dive south a la ecm....expecting flat as a pancake like gfs. Reverse psychology, prove me wrong!

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    ECM 12z actually quite close to this morning's run - the pattern has shifted east by a couple of hundred miles.  Who's to say it can't shift back west on the next run?  Anyway, the destination is clear - cold or even very cold

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    TBF we all new the ECM was not gonna match this mornings run , it was a stonking run . All variations of a cold theme . Yes tonight’s run is not as good as this mornings run but tonight’s is still good . Everyone moans no matter what . This morning people where moaning it was a dry run ?. You can never win . ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Again the ECM op, as with this morning, relying on wedges to get that flow NW to SE:

    1526421093_ECM1-216(2).thumb.gif.80756e7180c88f65bfec844830ddcdad.gif464057837_ECM1-240(1).thumb.gif.f84efb75a5be807f97bda38b7e3be8ba.gif

    I am not saying that it isn't possible at this range to get mesoscale details correct, but I am doubtful bearing in mind how bad the 0z got it wrong. I would be sceptical of this repeating again tomorrow and still suggest that D5 ends with FI and hope tomorrow is more enlightening!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, nick sussex said:

    Very good consistency from the ECM. Whether it’s correct is another matter later on however it’s miles better than the GFS if you’re looking for snow chances .

    The best output is hands down the UKMO at day 6 . That would evolve similar to the ECM but with more sharpness and corrected west .

    The GFS early evolution has no support and its odds against that will verify .

    You know Nick, these ECM runs are not a million miles away from the GEFS mean, yes they're a bit better but you would expect that, so there is great support for this kind of evolution.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    Just now, Steve Murr said:

    So the 00z is probably the western Envelope of the High, the 12z probably the Eastern End - ( 144-192 )

    The reality will be a midpoint- so if the 12z has -6c & the 00z had -10c creeping in then the -8c line off a light continental flow will so just fine...

    Plus no end in site across day 10 so that would be a 7 day spell now ???

    Let’s hope so ....delighted to see the trough drop at the end in line with expectations 

    That envelope would be great to work with - disrupting front crossing the country as the trough drops around it - pockets of 520 dam with slp around 1000mb ..........

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    Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
    4 minutes ago, IDO said:

    Again the ECM op, as with this morning, relying on wedges to get that flow NW to SE:

    1526421093_ECM1-216(2).thumb.gif.80756e7180c88f65bfec844830ddcdad.gif464057837_ECM1-240(1).thumb.gif.f84efb75a5be807f97bda38b7e3be8ba.gif

    I am not saying that it isn't possible at this range to get mesoscale details correct, but I am doubtful bearing in mind how bad the 0z got it wrong. I would be sceptical of this repeating again tomorrow and still suggest that D5 ends with FI and hope tomorrow is more enlightening!

    The 0z didn't get it wrong! We are only twelve hours closer to the forecast period and this a variation! At least wait until we are actually closer to the date before calling a forecast bust...

    As ever with these siutations, we will see variations east and west, with the forecast track narrowing as we get closer to the event. Probabilities of some form of system taking a track around the areas modelled now seems likely, but it'll be around the three day mark before we can really get any idea of the track, and probably a day or two out before we can consider snow/Rain. Etc.

    Edited by WhiteFox
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    You know Nick, these ECM runs are not a million miles away from the GEFS mean, yes they're a bit better but you would expect that, so there is great support for this kind of evolution.

    I’m talking about the GFS op upto day 6 . Zero support from the other main ops . 

    All the others disrupt the low to the west of the UK , the GFS has it se of the UK.

    Edited by nick sussex
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Let’s hope so ....delighted to see the trough drop at the end in line with expectations 

    That envelope would be great to work with - disrupting front crossing the country as the trough drops around it - pockets of 520 dam with slp around 1000mb ..........

    Yeah just a bit to much vortex @168 on the 12z for comfort- just need to redistribute the energy more SSE & not ESE !

    Mean should be better !

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    Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
    31 minutes ago, IDO said:

    ECM and GFS at D71706428686_ECM1-168(1).thumb.gif.41868447a27e09511cba8a6179e2bf76.gifgfs-0-168.thumb.png.c6d3acb432a534e09a283ca4991b8561.png:

     

    Care to elaborate as I imagine this is meaningless to anyone new to the forum?

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    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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