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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Hmmm not come to fruition on the 12zecm?on to the 18z then

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    So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

    I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

    It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
    4 minutes ago, sorepaw1 said:

    Nice chart ice cold . Will it be likely to see -8 more widely say  at T192.

    Yesterday's 12z chart?!

    EDIT: Already spotted as being wrong chart.

    Edited by ukpaul
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

    Bizarrely GFS P precipitation charts on Netweather are broken and seem to always show continuous precipitation over the whole map.

    looks more like 5 years ago todays, 12Z, date on bottom looks weird

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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Second day on the trott we have a surpressed 00z ECM then a progressive 12z - so you end up with a big swingometer-

    ?irritated.

    What did you really expect Steve , this mornings ECM was really or very nearly as good as we could EVER have hoped , to repeat would have been a miracle ….nothings changed …………….as you know 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    5 minutes ago, BlackburnChris said:

    prectypeuktopo.png 4 days away.

    Surely this can’t be right !!

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Ecm begins mixing out the cold..

    However its a pretty sure bet that the overheads will be more fridgid-as we fall within 72hr mark..

    A simple story of larger scale dynamics..

    On a smaller scale.

    Ec great with genral synops..but has tendancy to under play 850hpa's..

     

    ECU0-168.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Hopefully this isn’t a new signal picked up on to blow that low up, GFS ensembles quite keen on the same scenario!

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    Posted
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
    1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    looks more like 5 years ago todays, 12Z, date on bottom looks weird

    Here is an example taken from the latest GFS P run from Tue 15th at 3 & 6pm.

    3pm.thumb.jpg.a5425d0e77735fc8e4b56d6204506f66.jpg1695529062_Tue6pm.thumb.jpg.94555ae332333d8065a6fa9743b65663.jpg

    It's not right.

     

    Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

    What did you really expect Steve , this mornings ECM was really or very nearly as good as we could EVER have hoped , to repeat would have been a miracle ….nothings changed …………….as you know 

    No I know however the ECM 12z is so inconsistent - like I posted in my bias post about 7-8 days ago 12z ECM zonal bias. 

    Same as yesterday, it may not be to bad today, just over progressive.

    But the overprogressive nature isnt as bad as yesterday- still enough cold in the tanks for snow @192

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    ECM downgrade was pretty much nailed after the amazing 00z. Yet some are surprised? Why?

    Natural variation.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    just when you think it’s sorted ecm joins gfs in spoiling the party,going flat with jet  stream going over the top ,mild outlier again!,hoping

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
    2 minutes ago, Light Without Heat said:

    UK buried.. Awesome chart 

    The reality:

    102-779UK.thumb.gif.801aef43ac07b834e0ca72313cd84ca9.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL

    Here is the 6pm and 9pm charts for the one just posted, there's no way it can go from one frame to the next looking like that on the GFS P.

    Defo an error somewhere.

    732661610_thurs6pm.thumb.jpg.0915fe1f2030d52860feeb313b890a15.jpg1379239767_Thursday9pm.thumb.jpg.fe795d60a996acd1366fc3800071eb48.jpg

    Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    5 minutes ago, Light Without Heat said:

     

    Delete

    Edited by Johnp
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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Uppers aren’t exactly mild.

    345430C0-D538-476B-9EC4-7D0D5DA43DE5.thumb.png.b80d778e15a1e5f880b744681ff7af6c.png

    so anyone thinking this will be an outlier on the temp graphs, think again. Synoptically it may well be...

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    192 a great example...check the vent/and jet prof..

    A preety clear indication of miss dynamics....of 850 uppers.

    Have no fear..all should align and tighten...

    The azores does'nt have me to concerned..

    And is feasible to become our friend...in a passing point

    ECH4-192.gif

    ECH0-192 (1).gif

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Looks OK @192 steve..

    Its a cold run so far ..

    Should end well imho..

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire

    Am I the only one who thinks this is a decent ECM?

    At day 9 it's really not that different to this morning's.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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