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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Don’t like this GFS run at all, too much energy going over the top of the ridge after the ‘slider’, even the slider looks like a disappointment to many on the GFS! Bloody GFS! We keep getting stonking ensembles when are we going to see the OP go with one of these outcomes 

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    So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

    I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

    It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    gfsnh-0-204.pnggfs

    What it lacks in early stages...gives bk in latter..

    Typical gfs behavior..

    As already mentioned..ukmo/gem 

    Top stuff!!..

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    Ukmo following the gfs trend of the 06z run of building heights to our Northwest. A Greenland high looks the way forward to me and if do fair play to gfs for the first model to spot a trend here!!

    Hope so.dont think I can cope with  continued dissection of sliders over any protracted cold spell!!! The one last year nearly sent me insane on here hence my slider gate post.please let's go to Greenland or Iceland with heights

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    The 6z was much cleaner, the theme remains the same with that ridge but that energy around Greenland could become a real thorn in the side been plaguing us all winter along with the limpet Azores high.

    6z first, 12z second.

    6BAC1CF0-ECD8-4518-9F16-4BAD353F0C83.png

    A004FE82-DAE3-485D-B5BF-7CE24B8B8F3D.png

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    Just now, Weathizard said:

    The 6z was much cleaner, the theme remains the same with that ridge but that energy around Greenland could become a real thorn in the side been plaguing us all winter along with the limpet Azores high.

    6z first, 12z second.

    6BAC1CF0-ECD8-4518-9F16-4BAD353F0C83.png

    A004FE82-DAE3-485D-B5BF-7CE24B8B8F3D.png

    Only if you think gfs is correct! 

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    Just now, Weathizard said:

    The 6z was much cleaner, the theme remains the same with that ridge but that energy around Greenland could become a real thorn in the side been plaguing us all winter along with the limpet Azores high.

    6z first, 12z second.

    6BAC1CF0-ECD8-4518-9F16-4BAD353F0C83.png

    A004FE82-DAE3-485D-B5BF-7CE24B8B8F3D.png

    The issue stems early on . The UKMO is sharper upstream , note the troughing southern tip of Greenland at day 6 . Flow of energy se on the UKMO more east se on the GFS .

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Not a good run at all from the gfs 12z and its all down to that slider in the first place am pretty sure!!if that slides more favourably then we would be in a better position aftwerwards!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    The 6z was much cleaner, the theme remains the same with that ridge but that energy around Greenland could become a real thorn in the side been plaguing us all winter along with the limpet Azores high.

    6z first, 12z second.

    6BAC1CF0-ECD8-4518-9F16-4BAD353F0C83.png

    A004FE82-DAE3-485D-B5BF-7CE24B8B8F3D.png

    The GFS also has a know bias for pushing too much energy eastwards in these setups.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
    21 minutes ago, swfc said:

    Gfs at 144hrs looks fine to me, why the flapping over it????also thought gem was a rank model

    I think people are looking at the potential for some snow before then which has always been a lower probability IMHO. Main interest comes after 168.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
    On 11/01/2019 at 19:29, mountain shadow said:

    No one should be looking for Greenie heights until week 3, until then, it's seeing what we can get from Icelandic wedges and the European troughing. 

    GFS diverges completely from the 6z by 174. The low near Newfoundland that it blew up and which aided the ridge to Greenland is suddenly made nothing of at all. A pretty weird change as it was in the same place and at the same intensity at that point on the 6z. It looks like a difficulty in modelling the jetstream.

    Edited by ukpaul
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    Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
    5 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Not a good run at all from the gfs 12z and its all down to that slider in the first place am pretty sure!!if that slides more favourably then we would be in a better position aftwerwards!!

    I don't think so shaky. We're looking at an overall pattern change with anomalies showing a fairly sustained flow from North of West as detailed by @johnholmes earlier. One small feature such as a shallow depression will not impact on the overall flow. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Penkridge
  • Weather Preferences: Virgins
  • Location: Penkridge

    Soon be time to start analysing the UKMO FAX to what if any corrections are made by hand.

    Not too fussed with the GFS Op, it just makes it up as it goes along lately. The Parallel on the other hand will make good viewing.

    Do you like my hat?

    Edited by Skyraker
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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    4 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

    Gfs seems to model NE USA and Greenland much better than the Euros, due to locale...12z concerning if it's spotted the flatter pattern due to the Canadian lobe an stronger jet...it's flat.

    image.png

    Concerning if it’s represented well amongst the ensembles, aside from that could just be the same old bloody nonsense from the GFS!

    Brown pants level is only 3/10 currently, dodgy ensembles and/or ECM and I may increase on that scale.

    Edited by Weathizard
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    This Winter long-recurring theme of Atlantic High is again evident on the GFS, just pushed further east, ergo worse, compared to the 06z! So cold shots interspersed by milder sectors, not really the plan. This scenario has been constant in the GEFS as a cluster.

    We need to get the PV lobe over the NW to be ejected in blocks rather than a slow flow of systems that have little chance of suppressing that omnipresent pulse of heights. The GEM has moved towards that synoptic and joins the ECM. However, the latter flips every run to a different output around D10 so tonights run will be important.

    Hopefully, even the worse GFS run will lead to cold/snow eventually but another delay is wearing! The T300 chart is not what I was expecting in the last week of January:

    gfsnh-0-300.thumb.png.b717836852324a1d0f3d6642749a1eae.png

    Of course usual caveats to the wonders of the GFS...

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    3 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

    Gfs seems to model NE USA and Greenland much better than the Euros, due to locale...12z concerning if it's spotted the flatter pattern due to the Canadian lobe an stronger jet...it's flat.

    image.png

    I always find this an odd thing ..... gfs is a better model in the USA than the other models cos it’s a us model ..... and the euros are better over Europe .... is there actually any evidence? Surely it’s more a case of the model bias being exposed in different geographical locales ???

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    Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

    For me across all models (awaiting ecm) there's no proper heights to our North. I know weaker heights can sometimes deliver but in general a proper cold spell needs either a strong Greenland or Scandinavian high. Even on the morning runs a proper analysis for me was that things could go wrong and it was marginal.

    Also we've been mentioning the 20th January for a while now as the starting point yet that date is in view now and it ain't great.

    Over to the ECM to save the day.

    @nick sussex no shares in GFS Nick but weren't you saying about 2 weeks ago that the ECM was very poor this season?

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Now ive actually walked in the door & looked- The UKMO is fine in terms of sustaining cold, however isnt quite as good as the ECM-

    Also we are only talking a couple of hundred miles correction we cant expect perfection @144 all the time-

    GFS is poor again- it just cannot see whats happening- but the transitional 24-36 hour window still applies

    Next focal point is FV3 - looks very good @78!

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
    4 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

    Gfs seems to model NE USA and Greenland much better than the Euros, due to locale...12z concerning if it's spotted the flatter pattern due to the Canadian lobe an stronger jet...it's flat.

    image.png

    This simply isn't true: I don't know where these ideas come from. It's like saying that the ECM forecasts Reading better because that's where the computer is.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

    Concerning if it’s represented well amongst the ensembles, aside from that could just be the same old bloody nonsense from the GFS!

    Brown pants level is only 3/10 currently, dodging ensembles and/or ECM and I may increase on that scale.

    Certainly not losing sleep over one GFS run, and the rest of it into FI really is utter garbage.  FV3 rolling. Let's see what the new GFS makes of it!

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    3 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

    The golden rule of getting cold in the uk is a mild eastern states/Canada so this is particularly surprising 

    A9C70811-1DB3-4943-BB4C-FFC55A4F8891.thumb.jpeg.c107a8080e963c99effd3d0cc0e7abd0.jpeg

    its isnt - take this month as an example ...... 

    the forward modelling of eastern USA trough/ greeny ridge/ euro trough with neg NAO is a basic example 

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    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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