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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

Message added by Paul

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8 minutes ago, knocker said:

Frankly, given the lack of agreement between the models, i think looking for detail vis snow 7-10 days down the road a pointless exercise; but hey what do I know..

More than most 👍

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just waiting for the ECM London graph to update.

Still waiting 🤨 not good timing if we lose them again 😭😭😭

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11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good of Catacol to bring up Feb 1996 and let me relive a very traumatic experience ! 😢😢😢 ! I’m suing for damages ! 😎

The infamous slider which slid off giving me three minutes of snow when I lived in Wimbledon ! In the meantime many western areas and indeed basically everywhere bar the east got plastered !

I remember vividly watching the BBC weather every bulletin to see if the damn precip was moving any further east . It just refused .

Anyway very enjoyable and informative posts Cat, thanks  , I’ll forgive the 1996 reminder !

The slider slid off 😂😂😂

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10 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

My take on the upcoming cold spell using the usual 500 mb anomaly charts

Looking at the latest upper air, 6-15 days from now. The usual 500 mb anomaly charts.

Not that they have been either consistent or a good guide at times but the three I use have been slowly converging over the past week into a more coherent and agreed pattern.

 

One item that has been consistent is the gradual lowering on all 3 of the contour heights. A week or so ago the heights just south of the UK with above 558 DM now they are predicted to be closer to 546DM or lower,

 

ECMWF-GFS

Today it is the turn of GFS to show the most meridional and cold pattern. Previously it had not had much in the way of this ridging over the western Atlantic into the Greenland area but now it does. Not sure if this will stay although judging by the EC and NOAA this is where it should be.

 

NOAA

Their 6-10 still shows a more Atlantic type of PM pattern with some ridging into Greenland, similar to how it has dealt with the pattern for about a week. +ve heights are shown off Newfoundland and these have also steadily increased over the last week on its daily output. Likewise the actual contour heights (just south of the UK) are showing at 546 DM some 10-12 DM down on earlier predictions. The 8-14 is a pretty similar chart in the pattern and positions of any ridging/troughing. Perhaps most of us might be more relaxed about this upcoming cold spell if these two charts from NOAA showed similar meridionality to EC/GFS. However, to me, the consistency of NOAA gives some confidence in the cold spell being something that is going to be there two weeks from now. How marked the cold will be, where any snow falls, is of course not for this type of chart but from the operational ones closer to T+00.

My own punt would be for a cold, sometimes very cold period of at least 2 weeks for most areas. Only temporary breaks in it for parts of the west and SW, unless a very active system breaks NE from the Atlantic. Then the usual problem of show or rain ahead and/or behind it. All full of interest for all those cold fans and for anyone with a weather interest.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Thanks John...always wait to see your take on the anomoly charts before getting too excited prior to a possible  cold spell. ...hopefully the signal will continue to strengthen in future runs 

Edited by Bottled Snow

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20 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

Remember that well,of course nothing in Hastings,but work took me round the clockwise section of the M25 that day.

As I neared the Chessington Exit the Green and pleasant land changed.

I witnessed half the landscape North to South from Green to White, a memory that has stuck with me in particular was one farm field, half white and the other green,a frontal dividing line in the most incredible clarity.

Without derailing the thread (although we’re in the quiet part of the day), also have memories of this even though I was only 10 years old in 1996. Nothing in my part of NE London. Yet the western edge of Greater London would have got quite a bit. Remember seeing the news with places out west getting pasted and us nothing. 😔

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No time for an ecm ensembles watch yet - hopefully tonight - but these clusters at T300 show nicely the potential direction of travel once we hit the heart of the potential cold period

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019011300_300.

Cluster one (41%): Euro trough, minor Scandi ridge - cold, easterly and even potential for a quick beast from the east?

Cluster two (22%): Euro trough, Greenland/ Iceland high - good for repeated injections of cold from the north. 

Cluster three (22%): Euro trough but closer to the UK, mini Atlantic ridge, for this to be snowy (especially the south) the cold would already need to be in situ. Longevity questionable 

Cluster four (16%): Trough further north, milder air possibly into south, not out of the question that cold could return to all later on. 

Edited by Man With Beard

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5 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Good stuff @Catacol..

The mac/micro both- now worth noting..

We-are at that stage...and alls looking very well indeed.

Winters coming...

The baby is up-n running!

Up and sucking innit?

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Are we going to get a stonking set of 12z runs? Have to say that I’m becoming cautiously optimistic! Hope the Euro’s don’t backtrack now that the GFS has moved towards them.

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5 minutes ago, shaky said:

Slide icon slide😁

It's having a go shaky crazy difference from the 0z run of the ICON,  under it goes

Screenshot_20190113-151952.png

Edited by seabreeze86

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2 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

It's having a go shaky crazy difference from the 0z run of the ICON 

It actually goes the full wack and slides

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4 minutes ago, shaky said:

It actually goes the full wack and slides

Are you sure mate?

image.thumb.png.9ea099e77404f203c748c2f128e85bcb.png

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