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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    ECM would be classed today as the best run of all winter - brutal cold in England with snow on the increase day 9 & 10

    97C154EC-4363-491F-9ECF-16531517329D.thumb.png.ea57f28e01dec576efe11793ef9d7d1b.png

    Its  a snorter...

    So happy with it steve...

    But so much uncertainty though its hard to get carried away..

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    10 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    Morning all in the UK. ECM/GEM all now in agreement with the UKMO at 144t. GFS out on its own. Both UKMO and ECM now in the shorter range show formation of a trough disruption from West of Ireland towards Brittany. UKMO has been consistent with this output for some days now. The second chart shows some backing of the flow across Southern Britain with cold air established ( not only at the surface but 850mb temps showing quite low negative values ). Not sure what will happen in the range 168-240t. Just important to get the cold air embedded and then see what happens.

    C

    UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

    ECU1-144.gif.png

    The ECM proceeds to build a block of very cold air to cover most of Central and East Britain out to day 10.

    C

    ECU0-240.gif.png

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  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, carinthian said:

    The ECM proceeds to build a block of very cold air to cover most of Central and East Britain out to day 10.

    C

    ECU0-240.gif.png

    ECdet looks frigid for many C...

    FINALLY  a det to meet with expectations..

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    Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

    It's definitely a much improved ecm this morning with quite a lot of potential going forward. I personally would prefer to see heights more profound to our North but this route could lead to a snowier outcome!!

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Its  a snorter...

    So happy with it steve...

    But so much uncertainty though its hard to get carried away..

    Good point NW.after yesterday's EC 12z it's quite a change? See where the gfs 6z go but I suspect be all change again later today!!!

    Edited by swfc
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  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport
  • Location: Live Thame (Oxfordshire), Work Heathrow Airport
    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    ECdet looks frigid for many C...

    FINALLY  a det to meet with expectations..

    I want to feel the snow falling on my head, and the cold wind blowing on my face rather than envisaging it on a chart that is always +7 days away ?

    It feels like it’s been a very very long winter of model watching already and it’s only mid Jan

     

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  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    EC day 10 is just beautiful....

    Cant stop looking at it...

    However, it all looks very finely balanced...

    Hopefully a decent ext eps..

    ?

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  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    ECdet looks frigid for many C...

    FINALLY  a det to meet with expectations..

    I hope the ECM run verifies. The GFS run takes a very different route to cold. I think ECM holds the best prospect for sustained cold. Hope you don't have to wait too much longer for snow in  your part of the world. Just mild here in Vancouver with days of cloud and southerly winds. Seen the amazing snowfall currently going on again this morning back in Austria. Looks a dangerous situation developing out there.

    C

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  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    3 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    I hope the ECM run verifies. The GFS run takes a very different route to cold. I think ECM holds the best prospect for sustained cold. Hope you don't have to wait too much longer for snow in  your part of the world. Just mild here in Vancouver with days of cloud and southerly winds. Seen the amazing snowfall currently going on again this morning back in Austria. Looks a dangerous situation developing out there.

    C

    Snapped a video on twitter from Austria ?

    73924310-2AC3-4E34-B65C-BE581935FBCE.thumb.png.1ced9bc8910ac4cd3d4b4db079305281.png

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  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
    2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Snapped a video on twitter from Austria ?

    73924310-2AC3-4E34-B65C-BE581935FBCE.thumb.png.1ced9bc8910ac4cd3d4b4db079305281.png

    That just crazy. I know that location in Obertauern.  Its even worse there this morning. Parts of Austria not seen this amount of snow for many decades.

    C

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  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    Just now, carinthian said:

    That just crazy. I know that location in Obertauern.  Its even worse there this morning. Parts of Austria not seen this amount of snow for many decades.

    C

    Skiing well into May?

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    Just now, carinthian said:

    That just crazy. I know that location in Obertauern.  Its even worse there this morning. Parts of Austria not seen this amount of snow for many decades.

    C

    without derailing the thread I commented the other day about my 1980s teletext days -The 2 ski resorts that always caught my attention for upper slope depth was Flaine & St Anton-

    My higest depth recollection was 650 on the tops - may have been 1988 when they had the big avalanche-

    Tuesday has it up around 550 already !!!

     

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  • Location: Halmer End - 172m/565ft
  • Location: Halmer End - 172m/565ft
    29 minutes ago, carinthian said:

    The ECM proceeds to build a block of very cold air to cover most of Central and East Britain out to day 10.

    C

    ECU0-240.gif.png

    Bear with me on this and I wonder if the experts can help me on this...  When watching the SSW videos they talk about the warming slowing the west - east winds they keep the cold air 'locked' up and that the slowing allows the cold to spill south. Looking at the charts that look, from a normal day, that the atlantic would breeze through the weak pressure over the UK and not slide.  Is it a case of the models trying to pick up the cold air being released from the artic and struggling in the process? 

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    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&amp;ech=204

    all the sighs  from  say 192  to deep fantasy world its going  cold    this should grind the uk  to a stop in places!

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 minute ago, mulzy said:

    Ext EPS theme continues - trough close to the U.K. and heights rising to the NW.

    Expect DeBilt 2m T ensembles to be the best of the winter (they just keep getting better!)

    End week 2 looks a bit more varied with signs of rising heights but also the euro trough not as far south as previous .....those clusters will show if a larger upper ridge to our nwor ne  is gaining support 

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    Message added by Paul

    Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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