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Paul

Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes but even in an 'average' winter you'd expect instances where this is the case. A glancing blow of -8 uppers (I say glancing because of their limited reach), is pretty standard for January. Heck I even had 10cm of snow in winter 2007!

Remember Ian Brown, modern winters and years without the 528 dam line breaching the borders?

Those were dark times.

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7 minutes ago, Skyraker said:

Those craving an easterly are perhaps missing the point of how epic a set up like this can be and what it can 

potentially deliver. 

This type of setup with marginal polar maritime incursions can deliver round after round of very snowy conditions instead of a one shot Atlantic battle with entrenched cold. We could be talking feet of snow over almost a month, however possible rain events will be interspersed with a following snowy reload.

I personally would rather roll the dice and have a history book set of events than play safe and rely on lake effect snow from an easterly. We’ve had that, it’s nice, but it’s not epic.

 

This could be.

Point taken but it can be epic for some locations, witness last Feb/March. Drifts up to upper bedroom windows. That is epic.

At the moment though the output does look like typical winter fare on offer. I think because we didn't know about the effect of SSW in years gone by, coupled with the results of the one last winter has resulted in lofty expectations after this current warming.

I wouldn't be ruling out a good dumping of snow anywhere. But at the moment the model output looks like, you know, like a normal winter cold interlude.

Edited by PsychedelicTony

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Glad somebody has a crystal ball - thanks Mulzy 🙂 ...just as much obsessing over 300+ hour runs on the gfs/p which frankly has been throwing a few out of late (onto something?) who knows.

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In my view, there is nothing in the output to suggest much more than a brief cold snap in prospect.

There is no real sign of high lat blocking in the forseeable, and that is a problem for those hoping for a decent spell of proper winter weather.

That is not to say that things could look much more hopeful on that score seven days from now, however. Things can change quite quickly.

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4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Incredible that some of us are obsessing about day 9/10 det runs.  Relax folks, it's going to get colder (maybe even very cold) with some snow in places.  There will be ups and downs but the destination looks to be the same.

Spot on mulzy . Look forward to hearing from you in a bit regarding the extended eps . 👍

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So is the reason for the not so good models today down to the Azors HP having more influence or being to close?  I believe it was @BLAST FROM THE PAST who was airing caution a few days ago about this HP out to our SW and that it's been a pain all winter so far.

Or is it more to do with where the bits of the PV look like ending up? 🖒

Edited by The BEAST From The East
Edit

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My disappointment at that ECM comes from the lack of snow. This is the total snow fall in 10 days. 

DE81F791-3FBF-48E9-A948-18CCB29B556C.jpeg

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I’m wanting early cold as only in the UK 13-23rd, looks like I may miss out on any decent snow events but without doubt it’s going to turn colder - even with the mildest of the models. ECM and UKMO will be close to ice days near the end. The rest of you have no worries, the UK will be going into the freezer later in Jan and Feb, I really think it’s a given - longevity maybe not. A few tweet reply’s from Ian F to people today make me think this could be a pretty epic spell though, and carry on well into Feb and possibly beyond.

Everyone stay calm, and enjoy more and more boom runs over the next however long - they won’t be in FI for long 🥳 

Edited by Ali1977

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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

My disappointment at that ECM comes from the lack of snow. This is the total snow fall in 10 days. 

DE81F791-3FBF-48E9-A948-18CCB29B556C.jpeg

Has that ever been right ?

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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

My disappointment at that ECM comes from the lack of snow. This is the total snow fall in 10 days. 

DE81F791-3FBF-48E9-A948-18CCB29B556C.jpeg

And thats on a chart that usually exaggerates massively the snow - so you'll be lucky to get any.

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20 minutes ago, Skyraker said:

Those craving an easterly are perhaps missing the point of how epic a set up like this can be and what it can 

potentially deliver. 

This type of setup with marginal polar maritime incursions can deliver round after round of very snowy conditions instead of a one shot Atlantic battle with entrenched cold. We could be talking feet of snow over almost a month, however possible rain events will be interspersed with a following snowy reload.

I personally would rather roll the dice and have a history book set of events than play safe and rely on lake effect snow from an easterly. We’ve had that, it’s nice, but it’s not epic.

 

This could be.

I believe an Easterly is on the cards myself, and next week's mid to long-range outputs will regularly suggest such options, as per my post from earlier. My advice to all newbies and those learning the meteorology game is to watch the ensembles spreads and the snow symbols ever so carefully and look for steady rises in snow chance percentages.

Edited by gottolovethisweather

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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

My disappointment at that ECM comes from the lack of snow. This is the total snow fall in 10 days. 

DE81F791-3FBF-48E9-A948-18CCB29B556C.jpeg

Thats fair enough Tim..

It is mainly cold and dry , OK a couple of milder days then look NW..ties in with Exeter for me, big cold push coming post day 10..

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Casino royale on the charts😂

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25 minutes ago, knocker said:

Merely an observation because of it's strength but at the end of the ecm the jet is impressive

index.thumb.png.18efe4c3e866e886427c3d83497f5404.png

 

11 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Up to +192 hours I thought the ECM looked quite similar to its seasonal model output (which has done well so far this winter), with high pressure to our west/south west. Further ahead the seasonal model has a strong signal for higher than average pressure to our north west, so I wouldn’t worry too much that daily model shows something different and less favourable for cold. Plus the fact it’s so different to this morning’s update (unlike the very consistent seasonal model output).

Good observation,can anyone on this forum show me evidence of the jetstream going on its hols to southern Spain or North Africa ,if not forget a very cold spell the jet rules uk weather end of.

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22 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Perhaps for your location

We got a foot of snow here last March from the last SSW

i think this is the problem, your viewing the models with a pretty high benchmark and of course for your location

for NE scotland it looks like a decent spell of winter weather and believe it or not we have not been blessed with much the last few winters

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9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

My disappointment at that ECM comes from the lack of snow. This is the total snow fall in 10 days. 

DE81F791-3FBF-48E9-A948-18CCB29B556C.jpeg

Brilliant.  what a winter wonderland 😅🙄

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ECM 12z enemble mean, first at T144 to see to what extent it supports the op, well good agreement in this case!

image.thumb.jpg.627a32149a44aa898ed420024a64c443.jpg

And at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.338f84ddb2d13a333778b51f16c5040d.jpg

Outstanding for a mean at 10 days, happy days!

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