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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards


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Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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So a rather long post ( Will also clip into the winter forecast thread ) However just an update on saturdays post, a large debate around models - & I took the day 6 UKMO & GFS charts to c

I assume the overnight ECM has (temporarily at least) put an end to the glass half empty stuff from some posters yesterday. I'm sure the next variation in op run will bring them back out - but if you

It's all good folks - we are about to get slammed ? Think March 2013 imprinted on the middle of winter - what's not to love ! The slider solutions are dialled in as the wave guide changes, N

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Well the EC shows a huge change from this morning for a model so admired?just one run granted but yet again huge volatility.would seem nothing past the 144 hour mark carries much credence atm

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We're constantly weeing against the wind. Once again, at day 10 ECM shows some promise going forward...but the elephant in the room is that Canadian vortex lobe. Until that either backs off or splits we're on a ride to nowhere.

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

As last year taught me, good things come to those that wait! 

C67B1012-8121-4796-A19A-11CD530CD626.thumb.png.5fe3b7e0bc19a12d3b4ba78a046d31f1.png

Not hard to see a cold outbreak following that 240 chart  

Sorry but I couldn't disagree more. 

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

We're constantly weeing against the wind. Once again, at day 10 ECM shows some promise going forward...but the elephant in the room is that Canadian vortex lobe. Until that either backs off or splits we're on a ride to nowhere.

Day 10? Are you still viewing the 00z run?. 

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Just now, blizzard81 said:

Sorry but I couldn't disagree more. 

The WAA starting to head north new Newfoundland willsplit that PV in two, a big chunk will then drop down like the GFSP

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1 hour ago, carinthian said:

UKMO again consistent with its output and this is the best model so far for the route to cold in the short term. Looks like the low at the end of the week to track over Ireland and sinking towards Brittany and introducing a easterly component to the flow over Southern Britain next weekend.  We need to see ECM go down this route this evening.

 

C

UN144-21.gif

Well, ECM not what I would like to see. No easterly from this run. Looks feasible out to 144t with possible trough disruption then pushes the warmer air mass through out at a pace to be followed by what looks like a strong westerly for a time. I am not buying this run. There is no consistency with its recent op outputs. Put it to bed.

 C

ECMOPNH12_240_1.png

Edited by carinthian
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16 minutes ago, Blue max 90 said:

Any ppn around?

It’s pretty dry... the slider just gives precip to Ireland sort of disintegrates apart and far SW all falling as rain there. There is some transient snow across much of country on Monday. 

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Just now, blizzard81 said:

Day 10? Are you still viewing the 00z run?. 

Day 10 would amplify from there. Clue is in the HP up the E coast of USA/Canada, allied with Atlantic HP and trough digging S stateside. 

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The GEFS 12z mean again indicates ice days for many during the last 10 days or so of January and ample snow opportunities..a real taste of winter could be ours!!??❄️..discuss:gathering:

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Just now, wafjin said:

Really? have always taken everything 10 days out as gospel?

For someone called blizzard you sure don't like the idea of snow.

I love snow more than anyone but I am also a realist who says it as it is. All I am seeing is delay after delay. Most of the proper cold spells are actually brought forward in time, not put back. 

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The divergence is around 192 / 216 with the jet - so no real major concerns at this stage bearing in mind what the 00z depicted...

What is the main trend though is for a ridge of high pressure to bauk the atlantic 144-168 filtering that very cold air further south than at the same modelling point yesterday, indeed London goes from day 6

-7c / -8c then touching -9c at day 8- hence why those surface temps are very surpressed- of course well below freezing overnight means that 3-4 day period offers up a 0C mean, maybe lower & with some snow around thats the best position we have been in thus far...

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Day 10 would amplify from there. Clue is in the HP up the E coast of USA/Canada, allied with Atlantic HP and trough digging S stateside. 

I can see what you mean but the problem we have is the models are downgrading at an earlier timeframe. 

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ECM & FV3 seem more typical of wedge HP environments of times past with the Atlantic trough struggling to advance against a slack cold pool.

ECM D10 is poised to dive a polar vortex lobe down across us similar to recent FV3 runs.

I’m not convinced by these clean whole-trough movements though; history informs me that multiple smaller systems sliding NW-SE and coalescing into a growing broad trough is a more likely route forward. The system usually ends up adjusted further south as a result.

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18 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Poor ecm at 192 you won't get a prolonged cold spell with the jet riding over the top like that, still miles away from anything decent

216 even worse, warm outlier again? Most of the op ecm runs seem to be 

 

Not a nice run, but it is a cold run until we get that horrible HP move up again at T240 so hopefully it will be an outlier at D10, a big one ideally!:oldgrin:

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Just now, blizzard81 said:

I can see what you mean but the problem we have is the models are downgrading at an earlier timeframe. 

Yes, as I said yesterday, I can't see these much touted Greenland heights any time soon. All looks standard winter fayre and some people really are putting lipstick on a pig with regards to current output.

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8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It’s pretty dry... the slider just gives precip to Ireland sort of disintegrates apart and far SW all falling as rain there. There is some transient snow across much of country on Monday. 

B4255691-06C7-42FB-9D8A-D1A19C49BA44.thumb.png.2a15aa1039b71abce956fac76a38fd54.png110A548A-466F-4068-A73D-03A2C4752C35.thumb.png.6b7dd5e23d969ef41ce8edf0557929c8.png45A8B4FF-DD28-4C15-AE93-6E396B8869C7.thumb.png.66993dedba08a436df6a54be9f128945.png

 

Not much point looking for snow on charts 6 - 8 days away....

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

No they are not- the ECM / UKMO are both as good as they have ever been in terms of cold 120-144- circa -7c filtering south, 

You are allowing the ECM day 9/10 & maybe a bit of the GFS to skew your view..

I do hope the ecm op is struggling Steve. If not, then??? 

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