Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Ok that’s cleared a few things up at least.

ECM loses its way around D7.. 

southern England 

This is actually pretty good news, the cold air get washed out next Sunday on the Op, the ENS obviously keep us in the cold air and in turn snow/frost possibilities - but in what way I guess we don’t know for now.

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Ok that’s cleared a few things up at least.

southern England 

The spread gets less nearer the end as opposed to 2/3rds through. 

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

The spread gets less nearer the end as opposed to 2/3rds through. 

The mean still heading down slowly which is good news. I’ll upgrade my thoughts to “an ok morning nwp wise”

[daz_4]

GFS op went a little bit crazy for Central Europe. Other then that, GEFS are not really amazing for my location.

 

[bluearmy]

Wow - ec mean T300 .... not a very common chart

looking very unsettled and cold beyond the day 11/12 push of the Canadian pulsing as the trough backs across the uk 

thats assuming the previous one doesn’t disprupt a tad more than the current ec op and deliver a snow event ......

[northwestsnow]

Just now, daz_4 said:

GFS op went a little bit crazy for Central Europe. Other then that, GEFS are not really amazing for my location.

 

wow the op really did go crazy!!

[IDO]

No change from yesterday.

The trend is for colder conditions, with the uppers tending -3 to -5c below climate after D7. It looks like a westerly pattern interacting with waves of heights pushing north from the Atlantic. Lots of uncertainty at this range as to the power struggle viz PV Lobe -v- Atlantic wave(s). The spread highlights this ongoing battle:

It is certainly like drowning in still water waiting for an HLB. If we can get an Atlantic ridge around the D12 period, although maybe unsustainable, it will be a quicker route to a snowy fix than awaiting further attempts. The vast majority of the D16 GEFS are interesting, so even if the initial ridge fails, we can still be hopeful:

 London >>> 

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Wow - ec mean T300 .... not a very common chart

looking very unsettled and cold beyond the day 11/12 push of the Canadian pulsing as the trough backs across the uk 

thats assuming the previous one doesn’t disprupt a tad more than the current ec op and deliver a snow event ......

Looks good Blue-

[SLEETY]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Wow - ec mean T300 .... not a very common chart

looking very unsettled and cold beyond the day 11/12 push of the Canadian pulsing as the trough backs across the uk 

thats assuming the previous one doesn’t disprupt a tad more than the current ec op and deliver a snow event ......

Where do you find that charts,that’s a BOOM,hope it verifies 

Edited January 11, 2019 by SLEETY

[northwestsnow]

Have to say the EC mean looks great

Cold and cyclonic all the way, its suggestive of PM air..

and ends very well by day 10..(its below average from day 6 btw)..

day 6

day 10

the charts in between very similar..

Edited January 11, 2019 by northwestsnow

[Ali1977]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Wow - ec mean T300 .... not a very common chart

looking very unsettled and cold beyond the day 11/12 push of the Canadian pulsing as the trough backs across the uk 

thats assuming the previous one doesn’t disprupt a tad more than the current ec op and deliver a snow event ......

How would that relate to 850s? Nice to have the whole UK well within the 528 DAM though!!

[knocker]

Indeed the EPS 8-13 mean anomaly has the ridge amplifying through Iceland and thus the Scandinavian trough becomes positively tilted with the colder surface temps aligned Scandinavia through the UK

[mulzy]

12 minutes ago, knocker said:

Indeed the EPS 8-13 mean anomaly has the ridge amplifying through Iceland and thus the Scandinavian trough becomes positively tilted with the colder surface temps aligned Scandinavia through the UK

Yes, the ext EPS looking very good.  The low heights anomaly over France days 12+ is trending west as per the GEFS leading to milder conditions getting into Eastern Europe - still ok for us though!

Expect the Debilt 2m Ts to be the best this winter!

Edit: on cue!

Edited January 11, 2019 by mulzy

[nick sussex]

Confusion developing now re any slider .

The GFS doesn’t really want to know taking a deeper low se but I don’t mind it’s day 8 output.

The ECM ejects a very shallow shortwave se but too far west generally .

The UKMO I’m not really sure about , still trying to work out what that would do at day 7!

Looking at the ECM spreads post day 6 the nw se orientation suggests the UK will be the boundary between cold and less cold air .

I’d be wary of taking the detail too seriously past day 6 because of the set up , any further possible sliders might change , especially depth wise and exact track .

 

[edo]

1 hour ago, KTtom said:

Don't seem to have moved on much in the last 24 hrs, still plenty of promise from ec46, but little signs from the operational and nothing on view you wouldn't get from a routine zonal winter....

BTW nice to come on here in the mornings to get a balanced view from members before the slightly biased members who seem to spend all day hunting for a cold chart get out of bed!

i think there has been imby interpretation of the models... plenty wintry weather showing for lots of members 

[SLEETY]

18 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

How would that relate to 850s? Nice to have the whole UK well within the 528 DAM though!!

At that time scale i wouldn’t take any notice,ive just realised it’s over 10 days away.actual day will probably look miles different anyway.Posting 300 hour means SMH

Edited January 11, 2019 by SLEETY

[northwestsnow]

STONKING EC ens!!

Some super cold Easterlies appearing later on..

[nick sussex]

Looking at the ECM mean that’s pretty good day 7 onwards .

A displaced limpet high , enough separation between PV lobes and an area ne of Iceland where we might see small wedges of high pressure develop helping to disrupt upstream energy se through the UK.

The longer term ensembles are very nice from the ECM although I tend to be wary of these past day ten.

The trend looks good  for UK coldies but best to remain cautious until nearer the time.

Edited January 11, 2019 by nick sussex

[northwestsnow]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Looking at the ECM mean that’s pretty good day 7 onwards .

A displaced limpet high , enough separation between PV lobes and an area ne of Iceland where we might see small wedges of high pressure develop helping to disrupt upstream energy se through the UK.

The longer term ensembles are very nice from the ECM although I tend to be wary of these past day ten.

The trend looks good  for UK coldies but best to remain cautious until nearer the time.

EC ens have flipped MUCH colder overnight Nick..

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC ens have flipped MUCH colder overnight Nick..

They have? Where you seeing this NWS.. can you pop an example or link and I’ll go fetch 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

EC ens have flipped MUCH colder overnight Nick..

Yes they look very good ! Lots of easterly and ne wind directions showing there. Again though we need to be cautious.  I think it’s a case of a battle with the PV lobe over Canada upto day ten then a suggestion this relents moves further to the nw allowing stronger ridging to develop to the north or ne .

 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

They have? Where you seeing this NWS.. can you pop an example or link and I’ll go fetch 

[Stuie]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

If that bottom chart is 2M temps for De Bilt then will take that for now!

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Stuie W said:

If that bottom chart is 2M temps for De Bilt then will take that for now!

All things considered i would expect Exeter to start firming up on the pattern change today, perhaps tomorrow (if the signal is maintained).

[karlos1983]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Ah ok De Bilt. Yes very nice set there!