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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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The GEFS 00z mean indicates an increasingly wintry last third of January nationwide with frosts, snow and some ice days..even sooner for scotland!👍:cold:😉❄❄❄❄❄❄

Edited by Frosty.
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7 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Another day where nothing has got any closer than day 10+. It'd be nice to see something start to appear within the reliable soon, we seem to have been stuck in limbo at day 10+ for what seems an eternity now. A very slow process if we're to get anything out of this that's for sure.

Ahh but we’ve been waiting to see the pattern change hints at D10, now on the ECM we are seeing tentative signs of that. GFS changes its mind 4 times a day in fl, so make of that what you will, but I’m not a fan, the quicker it’s ditched the better for everyone! FV3 is at least a bit more consistent......when it’s been working that is. Agree though it’s been a long slog! Hang in there, I feel reward is just around the corner. 

Edited by karlos1983
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7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean now has troughing into Europe by day 10..

image.thumb.png.e68bd73dff73a345ea6bd7f3079b341d.png

Follows the mean for the south but milder for the north 🤔 

3DEBBD94-C9F7-460D-91FA-6993B9890F5F.jpeg

F7239763-09A4-45F7-B310-D0FF79A33EBD.jpeg

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC mean now has troughing into Europe by day 10..

image.thumb.png.e68bd73dff73a345ea6bd7f3079b341d.png

The mean 850s are pretty good by next Thurs, must be a fair few very cold members amoungst the ENS.

B08E4204-7C76-461B-81A3-0B38A7A58B3C.png

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13 minutes ago, booferking said:

Sorry but very misleading for newbies some charts below from day 6 7 8 courtesy from EC & FV3.

gfsnh-0-144 (2).png

gfsnh-1-150.png

ECH1-168 (4).gif

ECH0-192.gif

Sorry but you are cherry picking, no uppers of -4 on a northwest flow will bring snow to anyone apart from Scottish ski resorts, and the last chart is looks like a fleeting northerly, 

Thankfully we are becoming primed for wedges of heights to develop north of the diving jet into Europe, hence the 240hr ecm at low and behold day 10. 

Next week is cool zonality, after that who knows which is where we expect things to get interesting. 

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Jam tomorrow continues today or in the case of the GFS no jam !

A very underwhelming GFS  00 hrs run which never delivers much in the day ten period . The PV never weakens sufficiently or splits enough to allow much .

The ECM is better , it’s that bit more amplified and it’s day ten chart is okay. However until the good parts start surviving contact with the more realistic timeframe then I’m staying on the fence .

By far the best output is the UKMO at day 6 because it elongates the PV lobe over ne Canada which runs north south into the central north USA  , this more amplified set up would deliver at least a better day 7 chart .

Because we still don’t see any suggestion of proper blocking we’re relying on small wedges of higher pressure to develop to the nw or n in between the PV lobes . 

These can at least help direct some colder air south . So what you need is more elongated PV lobes and a decent gap in between them .

 

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Is it just me or do the 00z runs seem to come out disappointing only to be trumped (are we still allowed to use that word in this type of context?!), by the 06z runs and then the rest of the day they get better and better until... Oh no its all gone the way of the pear again? 

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1 minute ago, JeffC said:

Is it just me or do the 00z runs seem to come out disappointing only to be trumped (are we still allowed to use that word in this type of context?!), by the 06z runs and then the rest of the day they get better and better until... Oh no its all gone the way of the pear again? 

yes it’s been like that for ages,seems to be data problem so i’ve heard or something ,unless they show brutal cold of course🤣

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I think as others have said we can see the pattern developing for the first stage of the downwelling. Repeated attempts by the Atlantic wave to build a sustainable ridge to Greenland to get a GH, remain a long shot. These attempts eventually send wedges to our north and help deflect the jet SE deepening the ScEuro trough after D10.

If the UK can keep to the cold/snowy side of that border we should get something interesting after D10.

From close to D15 greater chances of HLB'ing but the GEFS remain of nominal instruction as to the UK picture.

The D15 mean may reflect the long wave pattern realistically at that time:

 544321700_gensnh-21-1-384(1).thumb.png.9ebef1c3fa9d87733ac5fe1997e2ed0a.png

With the PV main vortex over the median winter region and the associated leakage east, the likely setup was always a possibility. We are probably getting the best case scenario, assuming the pattern does not drift east, so although a bit of a grind, remains promising. Upstream we continue to get mixed signals per nascent Pacific forcing and I am unconvinced of the MJO at the moment. Also, the Arctic High, clearly of importance, is not showing any model predilection by D15!

A slow burner is an understatement, let us hope it gets more blocky after D16.

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6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Jam tomorrow continues today or in the case of the GFS no jam !

A very underwhelming GFS  00 hrs run which never delivers much in the day ten period . The PV never weakens sufficiently or splits enough to allow much .

The ECM is better , it’s that bit more amplified and it’s day ten chart is okay. However until the good parts start surviving contact with the more realistic timeframe then I’m staying on the fence .

By far the best output is the UKMO at day 6 because it elongates the PV lobe over ne Canada which runs north south into the central north USA  , this more amplified set up would deliver at least a better day 7 chart .

Because we still don’t see any suggestion of proper blocking we’re relying on small wedges of higher pressure to develop to the nw or n in between the PV lobes . 

These can at least help direct some colder air south . So what you need is more elongated PV lobes and a decent gap in between them .

 

I dont see anything on the 00Z runs to suggest Exeter will be altering their wintry update in a few hours, if anything the Euros look better than yesterdays runs Nick..

GFS is rather flat but even that brings wintry weather to the UK ..

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1 hour ago, booferking said:

Its run of the season for me stunner and a banker.

Hi all if that chart verified what would be the outcome thanks..

IMG_0018.PNG

Edited by abbie123

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I dont see anything on the 00Z runs to suggest Exeter will be altering their wintry update in a few hours, if anything the Euros look better than yesterdays runs Nick..

GFS is rather flat but even that brings wintry weather to the UK ..

I agree the Euros are okay and the ECM taken at face value has decent day ten chart . Because we don’t have a strong block but are relying on these small wedges of high pressure it’s best to wait till nearer the time to see the depth of cold on offer .

 

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Ext EPS broadly similar to last night's.  Maybe a tad flatter at days 10-12 but end destination is still the same.  

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Just now, nick sussex said:

I agree the Euros are okay and the ECM taken at face value has decent day ten chart . Because we don’t have a strong block but are relying on these small wedges of high pressure it’s best to wait till nearer the time to see the depth of cold on offer .

 

🙂

Of course EC day 10 is way into FI so nothing set in stone but the mean is decent and the signal of troughing/energy into Europe is a positive trend- 

I'm cautiously optimistic although of course wary, esp of the high to the SW, need that pulling out of the way to allow for wintry weather..

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