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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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2 minutes ago, festivalking said:

NW Bingo coming up,.....yep get the cold in first and then the snow will follow

And it's no exaggeration to say that all of the building blocks are perfectly positioned, on this morning's 06Z!:cold:

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21 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Ok quick summary for folk catching up.

 

The Good.

image.thumb.png.5b44b2c8f136a042d5437fdbdebb344c.pngimage.thumb.png.15330300fbe603c4d48e9094a60d2a78.png  

 

The Bad

image.thumb.png.7da6372cc0dcaa2582d576ec35d5dfa6.png   

 

The Indifferent

image.thumb.png.dae9cc6b506ae411f1cf2f58a10a6a34.png

Its all to do with the storm off the Eastern side of the Us  we need that to stay tight to the coast and quite strong  this in tern will amplify the high   . Still loads to be resolved  as the GFS will testify 

image.thumb.png.93838a478c3223344c1db34ce2929aa0.png

Think many of us would bank the bad there let alone the good. Seems like we are only going one way and that’s the white way

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27 minutes ago, Skyraker said:

Yeah it is (day 6+), probably expected given those charts, that said, it takes a couple of members with it.

Mind you, on a plus note, those means are fabulous.

Based on those ensembles only, it's in a sizeable cluster right through to day 7, after which there is no clear signal. Scatter becomes too random after day 7 to be able to discern a favoured trend. 

But, the background pattern is unchanged. For now, ensembles give reasonable guidance to day 7, after which it is pointless trying to figure out what happens at the detailed level. 

Edited by WhiteFox
Typo

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Serious 'deep-freeze' for Western Europe predicted by GFS

DxHD5ueXgAE9xiv.jpg large.jpg

Edited by Turnedoutniceagain
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Didn't someone say the GFSP was supposed to be more accurate? Its idea is completely the opposite to what we are all hoping for 😞

image.thumb.png.2162e081737cf386ba26cac9fd0e7476.png

image.png

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1 hour ago, suffolkboy_ said:

That's temperatures at 6am, ie minimums. We had colder than that in December 2010.

We did in Yorkshire too. I believe Topcliffe recorded a minimum of -19 on several nights and Doncaster airport-15.

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10 minutes ago, chessfiend said:

Didn't someone say the GFSP was supposed to be more accurate? Its idea is completely the opposite to what we are all hoping for 😞

image.thumb.png.2162e081737cf386ba26cac9fd0e7476.png

image.png

Seems to point towards the most favoured outcome. But only slightly.

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18 minutes ago, chessfiend said:

Didn't someone say the GFSP was supposed to be more accurate? Its idea is completely the opposite to what we are all hoping for 😞

image.thumb.png.2162e081737cf386ba26cac9fd0e7476.png

image.png

I've been pondering that too - surely if it's the most accurate then it's now showing the most favoured outcome?

Or is that only when it shows what people want to see? 🙂

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4 minutes ago, Buzz said:

I've been pondering that too - surely if it's the most accurate then it's now showing the most favoured outcome?

Or is that only when it shows what people want to see? 🙂

But the majority clusters on the ens suites, and the ECM op still show colder than that (albeit with varying degrees and synoptics) so that is in a minority, don't get me wrong, if that starts to gain traction, i will be the first to say it (and probably get baited into a forum ban in the process), but the mild westerly is a minority solution.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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3 minutes ago, Buzz said:

I've been pondering that too - surely if it's the most accurate then it's now showing the most favoured outcome?

Or is that only when it shows what people want to see? 🙂

I belive the ECM is currently verifying the best.. I may have that wrong though 

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1 minute ago, Surrey said:

I belive the ECM is currently verifying the best.. I may have that wrong though 

I think you are right

Ecm

Ukmo

Para

GFS 

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4 minutes ago, Buzz said:

I've been pondering that too - surely if it's the most accurate then it's now showing the most favoured outcome?

Or is that only when it shows what people want to see? 🙂

GFS P is not the most accurate model ?? And even if it was it is done globally and not just around are shores . 

ECM - 1st 

UKMO- 2nd 

the rest make up the numbers . The meto use ECM , UKMO and in house models and do you no why ? Because they are the best out there . 😊

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10 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Usual rant from me, these "snow depth charts" are in no way indicative of what the EC is actually showing. The algorithms in them are hyped up purely for clickbait, that's the only explanation I can think of.

Edit: Just noticed that foot and a half of snow near Dublin, yeah alright 😂

Are you able to share what that run would actually produce? 0.8 inches for East Anglia for example doesn’t seem that hyped up for an easterly?

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11 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Usual rant from me, these "snow depth charts" are in no way indicative of what the EC is actually showing. The algorithms in them are hyped up purely for clickbait, that's the only explanation I can think of.

Edit: Just noticed that foot and a half of snow near Dublin, yeah alright 😂

Agree, but they did get 1ft last year in parts of that area.

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Strange that the GFSP was throwing out the most wintry charts earlier this winter but is now the only one of the main models not interested in significant cold.

You would think that the GFSP overall would verify better than the GFS but it’s too new a model to know whether it handles this sort of setup better.

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8 minutes ago, Buzz said:

I've been pondering that too - surely if it's the most accurate then it's now showing the most favoured outcome?

Or is that only when it shows what people want to see? 🙂

It's one solution amongst others. ECM and cluster, current GFS plus ensembles and UKMO (so far as we can see) largely back the colder solution.

It may be that the GFSp has the correct outcome, but we can only go on probabilities dictated by the models we have and, at the moment, it favours the colder outcome.

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3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I think you are right

Ecm

Ukmo

Para

GFS 

No bad thing going by this mornings ECM 

What we want to see is the charts today carry on through the weekend and then we can tell our friends family and the world.. 

Wontbe suprised to see "downgrades" as the charts this morning are sort of once in 100 year type events 

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14 minutes ago, Buzz said:

I've been pondering that too - surely if it's the most accurate then it's now showing the most favoured outcome?

Or is that only when it shows what people want to see? 🙂

It has shown NO improvement over the GFS thus far in global verification stats. Both have been running behind UKMO, ECM and even GEM in the last month.

In other words, it still needs tweaks and I've heard over twitter that some usa Mets are secretly happy with the delay as it's not yet upto task. These things often take a little time to iron out problems.

Edited by kold weather

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17 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Usual rant from me, these "snow depth charts" are in no way indicative of what the EC is actually showing. The algorithms in them are hyped up purely for clickbait, that's the only explanation I can think of.

Edit: Just noticed that foot and a half of snow near Dublin, yeah alright 😂

It's happened in March ,but you are correct just for fun at this Range. 

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3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Something to take onboard..

Via prog/stat.

Screenshot_2019-01-17-13-05-04.png

MMM  so by that the ensembles for the gfs  may be under estimating the strength of the Storm out of the US  which in turn may cause some of the perbs to not have substancial ridging?. 

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