Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Ed Stone 36,169]

2 minutes ago, festivalking said:

NW Bingo coming up,.....yep get the cold in first and then the snow will follow

And it's no exaggeration to say that all of the building blocks are perfectly positioned, on this morning's 06Z!

[markw2680 1,660]

21 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Ok quick summary for folk catching up.

 

The Good.

  

 

The Bad

   

 

The Indifferent

Its all to do with the storm off the Eastern side of the Us  we need that to stay tight to the coast and quite strong  this in tern will amplify the high   . Still loads to be resolved  as the GFS will testify 

Think many of us would bank the bad there let alone the good. Seems like we are only going one way and that’s the white way

[WhiteFox 782]

27 minutes ago, Skyraker said:

Yeah it is (day 6+), probably expected given those charts, that said, it takes a couple of members with it.

Mind you, on a plus note, those means are fabulous.

Based on those ensembles only, it's in a sizeable cluster right through to day 7, after which there is no clear signal. Scatter becomes too random after day 7 to be able to discern a favoured trend. 

But, the background pattern is unchanged. For now, ensembles give reasonable guidance to day 7, after which it is pointless trying to figure out what happens at the detailed level. 

Edited January 17 by WhiteFox
Typo

[Quicksilver1989 3,710]

Well... hello to everyone on this rather crisp sunny day

Interesting morning eh? The first OP of the year that falls into the narnia swingometer category. What a beauty and it would mean the CET of the last week of January would be ~-2.5C. Is it a cold outlier however?

The picture for January 25th is STILL unclear. The diving area of low pressure is absolutely key as to what transpires. Quite a lot of the coldest runs have an antiyclone over the UK and it seems the slightly more likely option for now. More runs needed (yet again). Still quite a few Atlantic based runs in there but also some good runs too to keep up the hope.

 

For the end of the month more blocked runs appearing. The OP takes the star prize this time round.

 

Looking at the global temperature anomalies look very sweet indeed, the cold pool over NE Canada shunted away from the North Atlantic and a nice cold pool to our east.

I still urge caution at this point but given the OP is showing this cold run and the 00z's were also good you can't help but feel something may be brewing. That diving low over the UK between Jan 20th-25th is hugely important though.

[ICE COLD 5,921]

Just caught up with the gfs 6z run . OMG What a run my friends. Could it really be , that is one seriously cold and snowy run . One thing is for sure there 100% be a downgrade on the gfs 12z (or will there ) 😁. 

[Turnedoutniceagain 927]

Serious 'deep-freeze' for Western Europe predicted by GFS

Edited January 17 by Turnedoutniceagain

[chessfiend 6]

Didn't someone say the GFSP was supposed to be more accurate? Its idea is completely the opposite to what we are all hoping for 😞

[Premier Neige 60]

1 hour ago, suffolkboy_ said:

That's temperatures at 6am, ie minimums. We had colder than that in December 2010.

We did in Yorkshire too. I believe Topcliffe recorded a minimum of -19 on several nights and Doncaster airport-15.

[Optimus Prime 918]

10 minutes ago, chessfiend said:

Didn't someone say the GFSP was supposed to be more accurate? Its idea is completely the opposite to what we are all hoping for 😞

Seems to point towards the most favoured outcome. But only slightly.

[Nick L 16,293]

5 hours ago, geordiekev said:

Great to see the 0zs playing ball for a change, if they upgrade through the day as is the case normally we're in for some corkers and with snow melt not so much an issue this time of year, could certainly get very interesting. 

However, if I were you, you might want to double check your window, having ran to window and being on northern hill, think you must be seeing things as here zilch 😉

But accum charts from ECM showing almost whole of UK in on action at some point in next 10.

Usual rant from me, these "snow depth charts" are in no way indicative of what the EC is actually showing. The algorithms in them are hyped up purely for clickbait, that's the only explanation I can think of.

Edit: Just noticed that foot and a half of snow near Dublin, yeah alright 😂

Edited January 17 by Nick L

[Buzz 580]

18 minutes ago, chessfiend said:

Didn't someone say the GFSP was supposed to be more accurate? Its idea is completely the opposite to what we are all hoping for 😞

I've been pondering that too - surely if it's the most accurate then it's now showing the most favoured outcome?

Or is that only when it shows what people want to see? 🙂

[feb1991blizzard 14,058]

 

4 minutes ago, Buzz said:

I've been pondering that too - surely if it's the most accurate then it's now showing the most favoured outcome?

Or is that only when it shows what people want to see? 🙂

But the majority clusters on the ens suites, and the ECM op still show colder than that (albeit with varying degrees and synoptics) so that is in a minority, don't get me wrong, if that starts to gain traction, i will be the first to say it (and probably get baited into a forum ban in the process), but the mild westerly is a minority solution.

Edited January 17 by feb1991blizzard

[Surrey 6,056]

3 minutes ago, Buzz said:

I've been pondering that too - surely if it's the most accurate then it's now showing the most favoured outcome?

Or is that only when it shows what people want to see? 🙂

I belive the ECM is currently verifying the best.. I may have that wrong though 

[weirpig 6,664]

1 minute ago, Surrey said:

I belive the ECM is currently verifying the best.. I may have that wrong though 

I think you are right

Ecm

Ukmo

Para

GFS 

[ghoneym 862]

I went for a 1984 type scenario when I posted earlier this month, I'm now going 1987....

 ECM + 198

 January 1987....

I've had a look at the NASA ozone site and the the NOAA strat - trop monitoring page and there are many similarities, zonal wind anomaly, temp anomalies etc all in the same ball park.

[ICE COLD 5,921]

4 minutes ago, Buzz said:

I've been pondering that too - surely if it's the most accurate then it's now showing the most favoured outcome?

Or is that only when it shows what people want to see? 🙂

GFS P is not the most accurate model ?? And even if it was it is done globally and not just around are shores . 

ECM - 1st 

UKMO- 2nd 

the rest make up the numbers . The meto use ECM , UKMO and in house models and do you no why ? Because they are the best out there . 😊

[Tim Bland 3,687]

10 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Usual rant from me, these "snow depth charts" are in no way indicative of what the EC is actually showing. The algorithms in them are hyped up purely for clickbait, that's the only explanation I can think of.

Edit: Just noticed that foot and a half of snow near Dublin, yeah alright 😂

Are you able to share what that run would actually produce? 0.8 inches for East Anglia for example doesn’t seem that hyped up for an easterly?

[feb1991blizzard 14,058]

11 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Usual rant from me, these "snow depth charts" are in no way indicative of what the EC is actually showing. The algorithms in them are hyped up purely for clickbait, that's the only explanation I can think of.

Edit: Just noticed that foot and a half of snow near Dublin, yeah alright 😂

Agree, but they did get 1ft last year in parts of that area.

[MattStoke 3,926]

Strange that the GFSP was throwing out the most wintry charts earlier this winter but is now the only one of the main models not interested in significant cold.

You would think that the GFSP overall would verify better than the GFS but it’s too new a model to know whether it handles this sort of setup better.

[WhiteFox 782]

8 minutes ago, Buzz said:

I've been pondering that too - surely if it's the most accurate then it's now showing the most favoured outcome?

Or is that only when it shows what people want to see? 🙂

It's one solution amongst others. ECM and cluster, current GFS plus ensembles and UKMO (so far as we can see) largely back the colder solution.

It may be that the GFSp has the correct outcome, but we can only go on probabilities dictated by the models we have and, at the moment, it favours the colder outcome.

[Surrey 6,056]

3 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I think you are right

Ecm

Ukmo

Para

GFS 

No bad thing going by this mornings ECM 

What we want to see is the charts today carry on through the weekend and then we can tell our friends family and the world.. 

Wontbe suprised to see "downgrades" as the charts this morning are sort of once in 100 year type events 

[tight isobar 9,960]

Something to take onboard..

Via prog/stat.

[kold weather 4,333]

14 minutes ago, Buzz said:

I've been pondering that too - surely if it's the most accurate then it's now showing the most favoured outcome?

Or is that only when it shows what people want to see? 🙂

It has shown NO improvement over the GFS thus far in global verification stats. Both have been running behind UKMO, ECM and even GEM in the last month.

In other words, it still needs tweaks and I've heard over twitter that some usa Mets are secretly happy with the delay as it's not yet upto task. These things often take a little time to iron out problems.

Edited January 17 by kold weather

[snowice 1,597]

17 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Usual rant from me, these "snow depth charts" are in no way indicative of what the EC is actually showing. The algorithms in them are hyped up purely for clickbait, that's the only explanation I can think of.

Edit: Just noticed that foot and a half of snow near Dublin, yeah alright 😂

It's happened in March ,but you are correct just for fun at this Range. 

[weirpig 6,664]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Something to take onboard..

Via prog/stat.

MMM  so by that the ensembles for the gfs  may be under estimating the strength of the Storm out of the US  which in turn may cause some of the perbs to not have substancial ridging?.