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Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

What are the 850s like?

Give it 5 mins till there out..

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4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

What are the 850s like?

Might be a bit colder than the ICON they come out later thou.

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UKMO puts on its a Superman costume and says i aint heard no fat lady yet. Oh the drama. Have to admit after the Icon i thought it was case closed.

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We need to wait to see ECM now for a bit of consistency! 

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Ukmo pretty well bang on the ec mean at day 6 - the surprise for me was that icon was so flat 

wouldn’t expect the ec op to be different later day 6 but it’s how much the ridge gets pushed ne thereafter that’s the problem as it then gets flattened - it it can retain its vertical integrity then it can actually hold just to our west 

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8 minutes ago, Mucka said:

You beauty! UKMO 144

UN144-21.GIF?16-16

GFS is going to be a stonker as well - look at the amplification.

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UW144-7.GIF?16-17

850's @144 

Looks like a snow event to me

Edited by frosty ground
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7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

What are the 850s like?

Cold enough for snow with a sliding low.

UN144-7.gif

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4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Alright called that one wrong, UKMO looks good at 144, looks quite a bit like yesterday’s 12z ECM at 168 right?

Yesterday's ECM 12z T168

ECH1-168.GIF?12

Today's UKMO T144

UN144-21.GIF?16-16

 

Sharper and more aggressive ridging on yesterday's ECM.

Still, the UKMO could be a lot worse.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS is going to be a stonker as well - look at the amplification.

Well it should be a little further west than the 06z - what follows is also what you need to be watching ....

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Looking like Gfs Ukmo and Ec v the Icon.   Will take that

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Gfs even better than 06z at 126 hours!!more amplified near the states aswell!!

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1 minute ago, Yarmy said:

Yesterday's ECM 12z T168

ECH1-168.GIF?12

Today's UKMO T144

UN144-21.GIF?16-16

 

Sharper and more aggressive ridging on yesterday's ECM.

Still, the UKMO could be a lot worse.

That sharper ridge forces the cut off high .... its small margins !

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A widespread heavy snow event for all at +138 on the GFS!

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We need the models to consent to this at that time:

gfseu-0-138.thumb.png.d85f1133f3edaf3cc30833c8f35681ba.png

Maintain that synoptic and hope we can get improvements from there...

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Atlantic amplification is not only dependent on upstream developments but also directly linked to the trough disruption ahead.

The better the trough disruption the sharper the pattern and slower the patter creating better amplification behind.

 

This is why as with GFS 144 that finally gives good disruption the upsteam is much improved too with better amplification

gfsnh-0-144.png?12

 

 

Edited by Mucka
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1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

A widespread heavy snow event for all at +138 on the GFS!

Not taking anything away from the 'upgrades' but it would be far more marginal that what that chart shows, obviously particularly for low lying areas. 

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4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well it should be a little further west than the 06z - what follows is also what you need to be watching ....

Trust me - look at the angle of WAA - even back in the chart i was talking about but its improved since then - dont forget a 5% change in the angle and a couple of degrees higher latitude at such short time frame will mean such WAA into the pole as it will hold the ridge long enough to get an Easterly.

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1 hour ago, offerman said:

Hi Snowflake,  

That's a nice chart which highlights what I often say and that is the high pressure needs to migrate further north from that position and then tilt northeast .

When it's in its current position it just produce westerly or slight more northwesterly pattern which isn't good for us. 

Atlantic basically just rides over the top of the too far south high. 

 

Thanks for the reply Offerman, I'm still quite confident that the HP will retrogress into a more favourable position, fingers crossed.

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