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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
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Posted
3 minutes ago, evans1892 said:

Slightly marginal air coming our way....

GFS1.png

Its marginal yes - marginal between siberian style cold or North Central Canadian style cold but not marginal between rain and snow.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted
Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

What trigger low are you on about? The one moving off into Eastern Europe?

No its the one that on previous GFS has come off the USA around 168hrs, merged with the low near Greenland and sheared off to the SW as pressure rises in the mid atlantic and we end up in a stable cold se-up. May not happen like that but the extended GFS has been pretty keen on it recently.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
7 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Why is this called a pub run please ?

I think it's because of the timescale we see it, we're in the pub at the time it comes out.   And it has a habit apparently of spewing out cold winter runs, there may be a correlation there...beyond that I don't know, netweather folklore maybe?

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cyclonic happiness Accomplished

cyclonic happiness

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
Posted
23 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Indeed worth noting the GFS operational now gives 3-5cms across a broad area in S.Midlands and into E.Anglia. Well worth watching and maybe a hint of what will come on Tuesday, especially as this has completely caught the models out.

The band of precipitation over Ireland for tomorrow's front is already fully sleet and snow.  that must be a good sign? :-)

Screenshot_2019-01-17-22-30-38.png

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
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Posted
Just now, ICE COLD said:

OMG stunning 18z 

456B206B-60BD-41CD-B284-601155760FE4.png

E73C80DF-7432-446B-868B-5B97D87D5853.png

MARCH 2018 kind of uppers?

We are a full 6-7 weeks earlier this time round if that run is near reality- it will be freezing i'm sure..

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GeordieX9v Aficionado

GeordieX9v

Posted
  • Location: North Tyneside
  • Location: North Tyneside
Posted
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its marginal yes - marginal between siberian style cold or North Central Canadian style cold but not marginal between rain and snow.

Trying not to jinx it. I'm bouncing off the walls given my location 

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ukpaul Aficionado

ukpaul

Posted
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Click on my name - sorry, it was too long to fit here......
  • Location: Sowerby Bridge, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

No its the one that on previous GFS has come off the USA around 168hrs, merged with the low near Greenland and sheared off to the SW as pressure rises in the mid atlantic and we end up in a stable cold se-up. May not happen like that but the extended GFS has been pretty keen on it recently.

GFS will not create a trigger low if it can help it at that point in the run. It flattens everything between 192 and about 240 when it can.

EDIT: Yep, predictably it did that.

Edited by ukpaul
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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

No its the one that on previous GFS has come off the USA around 168hrs, merged with the low near Greenland and sheared off to the SW as pressure rises in the mid atlantic and we end up in a stable cold se-up. May not happen like that but the extended GFS has been pretty keen on it recently.

How can a low merge with another and a the same time shear away SW?  Could you show an output to explain, please?

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted

And just in case you havent had any snow by this point, look whats coming down from the North West with some moisture injected but look at the uppers there as well!!!

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
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1 minute ago, evans1892 said:

Trying not to jinx it. I'm bouncing off the walls given my location 

LOL.

I bet you are- anywhere in Eastern Britain is looking at hitting the jackpot with 18z- SE England would surely be clobbered..

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

Will tomorrow morning bring consolidation of the easterly and dare I say maybe even upgrades, or GFS reverting back to it's earlier output and ECM watering down on it's present output? Brave person to call it.

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kold weather Maestro

kold weather

Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

GFS will not create a trigger low if it can help it at that point in the run. It flattens everything between 192 and about 240 when it can.

It all depends on whether it decides to shear off to the SE like the last few have done. If it does then the only solution is either cold, or very cold. It will also be the difference between a cold spell, and a historic spell IMO. Very rare though, but we could transition from easterly to northerly in one smooth motion. Only seen it a coupe of time in my 15 years on net weather.

Looking good at 216hrs!

Edited by kold weather
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northumberland snowman Contributor

northumberland snowman

Posted
  • Location: New hartley. South East Northumberland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: New hartley. South East Northumberland
Posted
9 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Errrrmmmm there’s not much marginal about -8 uppers ❄️

Sarcasm??

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Northumberland snowman said:

Sarcasm??

No. Factual -8 uppers + ppn = snow 

nothing marginal about it

Edited by karlos1983
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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Pub run! Yep it’s on the Stella that’s for sure 

Some brutal windchill on that easterly! An absolute snow machine and possible thundersnow!! 

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
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Posted

The EC46 has pretty much the entire month of February covered with Northern blocking and Euro troughing.. 

Probably the best update yet

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, karlos1983 said:

No. Factual -8 uppers + ppn = snow 

I think he meant the other bloke was being sarcastic perhaps.

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damianslaw Maestro

damianslaw

Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
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Posted

Not often you see the GFS and ECM both showing a road to long drawn bitter easterlies in mid -winter, indeed the last time we had a long drawn easterly late January was way back in 1996..

 

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

That is feb/March 18z redux

E3DAF98C-74A1-47BE-ADD4-608A65026A81.png

4 weeks earlier . Should it play out like that, any snow will not be going anywhere fast 

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Look at those uppers still in place at 234, and as Feb mentioned, look at the cold approaching from the north-west.  Unusually low from that direction

image.thumb.png.47be42cda737ef9063cb036eb673ac7e.png

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northumberland snowman Contributor

northumberland snowman

Posted
  • Location: New hartley. South East Northumberland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: New hartley. South East Northumberland
Posted
2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

No. Factual -8 uppers + ppn = snow 

nothing marginal about it

I was referring to Evans post being sarcastic!!

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