Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

I'm not sure what relevance the ridge behind it has either, the atlantic is coming over the top of the high and eventually the high will back of west, it's been sign posted to do that for a while.

The only question is could we hang on to colder air during the transition? The answer appears to be no for now.

Agreed. The ship has sailed on any chance for snowy cold in the next ten days away from higher ground in the North. 

[Weathizard]

Consistent as pigeon s*** on Trafalgar Square, unfortunately.

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

I'm not sure what relevance the ridge behind it has either, the atlantic is coming over the top of the high and eventually the high will back of west, it's been sign posted to do that for a while.

The only question is could we hang on to colder air during the transition? The answer appears to be no for now.

because the more robust the ridge becomes, it might slow the westerly flow behind it, and then subsequent lows might be deflected rurther south as at the moment, the GFS is not really offering much, not that the GFS is to be trusted wholeheartedly of course, but i was just commenting on the run that was coming out at that time.

[frosty ground]

06z Yesterday0z

 

The uptick in temps from the 19-25th is very noticeable  from yesterdays 06Z GEFS to this mornings 0z 

Cool but not cold.

[Chesil View]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

06z Yesterday0z

 

The uptick in temps from the 19-25th is very noticeable  from yesterdays 06Z GEFS to this mornings 0z 

Cool but not cold.

And will no doubt change again.

[swfc]

Tbh the 6 z and oz gfs are almost identical at 168 hrs!!! not making any forecast but has any other model done that??? hopefully its wrong but I guess atm anything is possible.fi 5-6 days I reckon or hope

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

06z Yesterday0z

 

The uptick in temps from the 19-25th is very noticeable  from yesterdays 06Z GEFS to this mornings 0z 

Cool but not cold.

In the extended though actually the 0z 14th look good - its the eps that im worried about, not seen them yet though, just going off other comments, the GEFS over the last day have been showing tentative signs of a Greeny.

[Paul_1978]

It is worth reminding ourselves that, in line with the Met Office outlooks, that cold is not anticipated to become established until at least 28th Jan (14 days from now, or T+348 if you like).

Bear that in mind before being disappointed with the regular model output.... and remember the bigger picture, the signs of which are mainly favourable.

[weirpig]

Snow for most at 198h on the gfs  with cold uppers and a brisk north westerly  

Edited January 14, 2019 by weirpig

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, Paul_1978 said:

It is worth reminding ourselves that, in line with the Met Office outlooks, that cold is not anticipated to become established until at least 28th Jan (14 days from now, or T+348 if you like).

 

Yes, but in late December, the outlook was for the cold to become established by mid January, yet here we are still chasing charts from 10+ days away.

[Tim Bland]

06z has slightly colder air within that front slipping south on Tuesday meaning more of it will fall as snow. Fine margins here and lots more chopping and changing to come. Still more exciting than dry cold..think high risk, high reward for snow lovers! 

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

because the more robust the ridge becomes, it might slow the westerly flow behind it, and then subsequent lows might be deflected rurther south as at the moment, the GFS is not really offering much, not that the GFS is to be trusted wholeheartedly of course, but i was just commenting on the run that was coming out at that time.

No signs of that happening thou, signs of energy going over the top and heading into Europe. 

[Paul]

Can we get back to the models please....

[SLEETY]

how can you take anything the gfs  shows seriously,when it’s miles different from the other models st the end of the week.

Edited January 14, 2019 by SLEETY

[frosty ground]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Yes, but in late December, the outlook was for the cold to become established by mid January, yet here we are still chasing charts from 10+ days away.

Because things change, not sure what the point of these type of posts are TBH.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

 

 

I think we’ll see more consensus going forward very soon, GFS edged a little but I suspect the Euros will too....more a blend going forward 

 

BFTP

 

Edited January 14, 2019 by chionomaniac
removed deleted post

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

how can you take anything the gfs  shows seriously,when it’s miles different from the other models st the end of the week.

No model is ever a 100% wrong there is always a convergence.

The ECM run from Saturday that got rubbished was actually a warning for the change in the midterm that we now see on the GEFS.

[Methuselah]

In the mean time, there still seems little appetite for any really substantial height-rise around Greenland...? Plenty of time yet!

Edited January 14, 2019 by Ed Stone

[bluearmy]

The Azores ridging days 5 to 8 is the problem to be resolved - either it means the pattern is too far east as it gets flattened or it throws up a wedge ahead of the jet streak or it ..... well it could be responsible for pretty well anything by days 9/10 re the trough 

the spread on the eps for the Canadian trough dropping in was v wide on the 00z ...

[weirpig]

Turning into another very snowy run   day 8 onwards   

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

10 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

It is worth reminding ourselves that, in line with the Met Office outlooks, that cold is not anticipated to become established until at least 28th Jan (14 days from now, or T+348 if you like).

Bear that in mind before being disappointed with the regular model output.... and remember the bigger picture, the signs of which are mainly favourable.

Paul it gets put back and put back,  you know this, iv barely saw a frost, never mind snow, horrific winter so far and we are half way through. . 

I will never personally put a winter forecast together because it's fraught with danger, almost impossible to get right and this year is just another example 

[SLEETY]

Looking  good for the ski industry on this run,but the upper air temps too high for lower down I think?

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Turning into another very snowy run   day 8 onwards   

Unless I’m missing something between day 8-10 (not out further than that yet) is just a cool NW flow, nothing at low levels from that flow.

[swfc]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Unless I’m missing something between day 8-10 (not out further than that yet) is just a cool NW flow, nothing at low levels from that flow.

doubt it yes ,- 4 850s for most ,subject to change obv.Then the azores high cuts everything off!!!!!!

Edited January 14, 2019 by swfc

[weirpig]

Just now, Weathizard said:

Unless I’m missing something between day 8-10 (not out further than that yet) is just a cool NW flow, nothing at low levels from that flow.

Im only going on the precipitation charts   which to be far that far out is all we can go on.  but it shows a snowy run