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What are the chances of this heatwave reaching our shores next week?

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7 minutes ago, M1245 said:

What are the chances of this heatwave reaching our shores next week?

At the moment I would say from what I've seen looks more likely the usual split, south gets hot and we are not 🤷

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A very different feeling day.

Warm enough with a max of 20c, but it's been cloudy all day with sporadic rain on and off from mid-afternoon.

Also quite windy at times, especially in the afternoon - jacket on for the first time in a few days.

The combination of rain and overcast skies conspiring to force the lights to be put on at 9pm - harrumph..

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Posted (edited)
29 minutes ago, Huntforsnow said:

At the moment I would say from what I've seen looks more likely the usual split, south gets hot and we are not 🤷

Yes I think this will be the case - hot down South (35c+ looks on the cards currently) and warm up here. (Low 20’s temp wise for this area looks a safe bet at the moment - locally hot though for parts of Scotland)

Looks as though the sheltered spots of North East Scotland ect ect will reach 25/26c - Aviemore for example so pretty decent up there!

Quite a while off yet though so we shall see.

In the short term chance of thunderstorms tomorrow - more so Northern and Eastern Scotland. (Again!)

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Hopefully something passes through here as well! 

B2D4F258-D621-497E-A975-20EDA60C41AE.thumb.png.e824aa486e286ec08fd7f87c34f9eab1.png

Today’s weather was rubbish - heavy rain and low cloud but at least it was mild.

Decent sunset once again earlier.

96CD3302-E030-4CD3-B5C9-8CE5F87B50BE.thumb.jpeg.5c78439e35ffbb830c08843045cbf440.jpeg

 

Edited by Mr Frost

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53 minutes ago, M1245 said:

What are the chances of this heatwave reaching our shores next week?

 

43 minutes ago, Huntforsnow said:

At the moment I would say from what I've seen looks more likely the usual split, south gets hot and we are not 🤷

More runs are needed but I will be keeping my eyes on the chances of thunderstorms, looks like a chance of the +20C 850s moving into the south but even up here +12 - +15 is more than enough for heat/storms, obviously more than just 850 temps required but lets wait and see where we are by the end of the weekend / start of next week.

@Mr Frost my main area for tomorrow would be image.thumb.png.3fbb32a671b6c5b869d1f416ea0f14a8.png but the chance of heavy showers with some rumbles of thunder across the majority of the country tomorrow but that orange zone looks most likely for thunderstorms.

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Turning into a really difficult haymaking season this year with very few totally dry days.

However all the rain and the warmer nights of the last 10 days has led to some tropical growth wth the banks and edges of fields plus crops exceeding the height of fences and dykes. Neeps too are rapidly catching up.Second cut silage looks superb too.Just to keep the grumpy old farmer image up I have to say the cost of harvesting all this grass is exceeding budgets.

At least cattle have grass in front of them this year when this time last year the pastures were bare..Currently bright dry and 15.5c

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44 minutes ago, Northernlights said:

However all the rain and the warmer nights of the last 10 days has led to some tropical growth wth the banks and edges of fields plus crops exceeding the height of fences and dykes.

Yes, a scythe would have been useful on my riverside walk earlier this week at Birse.

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ESTOFEX for today 2019071906_201907180725_1_stormforecast_xml.thumb.png.73ecb3c4d41bc99881ea67aaa814c2e7.png "A level 1 was issued for Scotland mainly for tornadoes. Scotland

An intense short-wave trough crosses Scotland today associated with low-level stretching and lapse rate increase. Although low-level moisture is limited, some surface-based CAPE is forecast. Storms may develop over the land due to some insolation, and low-topped storms may be capable of producing a few tornadoes due to strong low-level vertical wind shear."

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Heavy showers with some loud thunder.

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It’s been an afternoon of short-lived torrential showers, warm sunny interludes and an intermittent gusty wind – two thunder-claps heard. 

The skyscapes have been beautiful, but, swathes of barley have been flattened in the neighbouring field.

barley.thumb.jpg.62ebd7a9ad4b026e6d27f50cce633c46.jpg

….and I had a few periods of internet down.

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Absolutely shuggee.

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Posted (edited)

Same as @ciel - short-lived torrential downpours on and off all day with a temperature of 17c.

Big upgrade today across all models regarding the plume next week - ECM run is insane.

Next Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday could see many of us in the oven! Chance of 30c at some point for parts of Scotland if this comes off! (High 30’s down South)

Also looks as though it would end with a bang - classic short lived plume followed by a thundery breakdown! Perfect! 

anim_yjq9.gif

It would be very sweaty in the Borders! 

Edited by Mr Frost

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1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

Same as @ciel - short-lived torrential downpours on and off all day with a temperature of 17c.

Big upgrade today across all models regarding the plume next week - ECM run is insane.

Next Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday could see many of us in the oven! Chance of 30c at some point for parts of Scotland if this comes off! (High 30’s down South)

Also looks as though it would end with a bang - classic short lived plume followed by a thundery breakdown! Perfect! 

anim_yjq9.gif

It would be very sweaty in the Borders! 

Yes, some of the forecasts showing mid 20s even here.

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Well, this part of Aberdeenshire missed all of the weather action today.

Another pleasantly warm day with a max of 21c with variable winds and plenty of sunshine.

Impressive cloudscapes though and Alford thankfully dry for the kids trip on the Sentinel Steam Waggon at the Grampian Transport Museum.

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Snag_2cc5a1b.thumb.png.363dac5beb6a17496d38c7474a852e0c.png

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Thanks for sharing @Stormeh I frequent the Lakes and you have inspired me to have more than my phone camera in future. It does do drizzle really well all year round so am glad to see that you scored good with the weather and you and yours had a great time.

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There's a fresher feel outside today with a temp of 16C, a cool breeze, sunny glimpses and still loads of towering CUs around - expecting rain before long.

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Posted (edited)

Yellow thunderstorm warning just been issued for tonight and tomorrow morning. Ive not been keeping a close eye on the charts but I wasn't expecting that! 

South West Scotland now has some form of rain warning all the way out to Tuesday! 

Edited by Ross B

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Ross B said:

Yellow thunderstorm warning just been issued for tonight and tomorrow morning. Ive not been keeping a close eye on the charts but I wasn't expecting that! 

South West Scotland now has some form of rain warning all the way out to Tuesday! 

Yes Ross - lively weekend ahead then warm and sunny Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday hopefully at the very least! (Shame last nights ECM was such a huge outlier - was a proper scorcher!)

We can’t say the weather is boring that’s for sure.

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Also tomorrow looks pleasant and sunny once the rain/storms clear though in the morning. (18 to 20c and plenty of sunshine)

Edited by Mr Frost

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I was wondering if anyone could shed any light on this issue.

Yesterday I lost internet connection during the thundery/heavy showers episodes. After the connection was restored I was still unable to access my mailbox until mid morning today. I understand my connection is directly to the exchange and not to a green box:unsure2:

My query is whether or not such weather can impact access to the internet.

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Well if you look at the GFS charts (from thursday onwards next week) CAPE/LI (and yes i know they will change) but BOOM! IF it came off

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I rmember in the sixties being told by the duty forecaster at RAF Kinloss that the inner Moray Firth was one of the most difficult areas to give  forecasts for in the UK because we had mountains on three sides and the sea to the other. Still seems to be the case as the local forecast on here seems to alter every six hours even just for 24 hours ahead. I only know this as I am constantly seaching for weather windows for haymaking just now. Just had some very heavy showers after a beautiful drying morning.Brighter now and 18c

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1 hour ago, ciel said:

I was wondering if anyone could shed any light on this issue.

Yesterday I lost internet connection during the thundery/heavy showers episodes. After the connection was restored I was still unable to access my mailbox until mid morning today. I understand my connection is directly to the exchange and not to a green box:unsure2:

My query is whether or not such weather can impact access to the internet.

Very good question and I would love to know also!

Could be a number of reasons - internet provider issues, maybe always unplug all equipment you have and then plug it in again once the storm has cleared or maybe lightning hit a cable outside that is connected in some way.

So basically...I have no clue! 😂

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