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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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We need more upgrades near the 192h mark. As it is, even in FI, it seems we will be moving into a cold/unsettled theme and vice versa. The High finally moves further WNW but the Canadian vortex comes into play waking up the Atlantic. To be honest that's fine for me right now after this mild nightmare we've been through. 

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You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

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3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

No you’re not. Especially when that post is quoted. I think that the main model thread should be gif free

Git free?  there will be nobody here.     Edit  slaps head in recognition 

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this evenings 46 will be keenly awaited to see what week the well trailed pattern shows..... hoping for three but expecting three and a half ….. what odds it losses the pattern after weeks showing it for the last week jan !!! 

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

this evenings 46 will be keenly awaited to see what week the well trailed pattern shows..... hoping for three but expecting three and a half ….. what odds it losses the pattern after weeks showing it for the last week jan !!! 

I think that's a definite outsider. Last 3rd of Jan has been touted for a while and I cannot see the EC46 backing down now. 

 

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I did think the METO had a handle on the timing , but the fact their long range wording hasn’t changed but the days tick by makes me think they have no clue neither - it’s just a punt that cold may establish - no better than our guesses post an SSW and using long range charts that have been wrong. I hope there wording eventually comes to fruition, or they are totally wrong and a freeze starts 19/20th in line with one of these wedges becoming a beast!!

No moan, just the facts. They were, and are best guessing !! 

Edited by Ali1977
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8 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I think that's a definite outsider. Last 3rd of Jan has been touted for a while and I cannot see the EC46 backing down now. 

 

I agree  infact i may as be so bold in thinking perhaps the GFS is on the mark ( i know)  and the signal may even come forward a little.  However if the signal is lost  i  think things  could look rather bleak on here later.    All good fun non the less 

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43 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Am I alone in finding the surfeit of gifs in some posts a bit distracting......I mean the non chart ones of course !

Personally I think it brightens the thread up after reading  some doom and gloom posts 

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7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Sorry going to have to disagree there Ali. They have probably the best Strat Model going in GloSea, and I don’t think they do guessing. They may have originaly got the initial timing slightly out(not the strat, but trop response), but they've been pretty consistent with the end of Jan theme I think. 

We haven’t reached the 2nd half of Jan yet let alone the signalled last 3rd, let’s see how it progresses. ?‍♂️

Maybe I was a little harsh, it’s a complex time. They changed a week of saying “third week” to now say late Jan - to me that just sounds like they don’t really know and just move the goalposts. Doesn’t bother me, but hearing” they have always had this down for late Jan is just plain wrong.

This does leave me thinking they could be wrong and it comes forward though !! Although straw clutching!! 

Sorry mods with regards METO chat!!

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10 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Maybe I was a little harsh, it’s a complex time. They changed a week of saying “third week” to now say late Jan - to me that just sounds like they don’t really know and just move the goalposts. Doesn’t bother me, but hearing” they have always had this down for late Jan is just plain wrong.

This does leave me thinking they could be wrong and it comes forward though !! Although straw clutching!! 

Sorry mods with regards METO chat!!

I didn't say that though.... 

The EC46 and MetO forecast seem to tie in pretty well to me.....what should they do? be stubborn and just keep to the same forecast timings and pretend they didn't get it wrong? It's not an enthusiasts blog, they are making a forecast based on the best information available, with the responsibility that the General Public read the forecast, so if it needs to change then so be it. 

Even the Strat Genius's we have on NW and beyond have struggled a bit with this SSW, I mean that with the upmost respect btw. Just been the nature of the beast. ?

Edited by karlos1983
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57 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I think that's a definite outsider. Last 3rd of Jan has been touted for a while and I cannot see the EC46 backing down now. 

 

Maybe the last quarter of January though, that's what I'm banking on. Certainly a sign of a change in the ensembles.:oldrolleyes:

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Icon once again so far out to 162 hours and infact maybe it looks worse and flatter than this mornings 00z run for the same time!also what looks the transfer of the vortex from the siberian side to the canadian side!!not a good thing ive heard?!!few more frames to go lets see if it looks better at the end as always!!

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Icon once again so far out to 162 hours and infact maybe it looks worse and flatter than this mornings 00z run for the same time!also what looks the transfer of the vortex from the siberian side to the canadian side!!not a good thing ive heard?!!few more frames to go lets see if it looks better at the end as always!!

Its a bit of a bust tbh!!!! Onwards and upwards as they say

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Icon once again so far out to 162 hours and infact maybe it looks worse and flatter than this mornings 00z run for the same time!also what looks the transfer of the vortex from the siberian side to the canadian side!!not a good thing ive heard?!!few more frames to go lets see if it looks better at the end as always!!

Yes, but 162 hours is only around 7 days away, the end of the month is when we next look for a cold spell is still 20 odd days away. I therefore would only be looking in the FI charts around the T+14 days to see whether the building blocks are falling into place.

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Icon once again so far out to 162 hours and infact maybe it looks worse and flatter than this mornings 00z run for the same time!also what looks the transfer of the vortex from the siberian side to the canadian side!!not a good thing ive heard?!!few more frames to go lets see if it looks better at the end as always!!

ICON will probably look poor for the next 2-3 days as any change of note will be 10-12 days away at the earliest. That's part of the problem at the moment in that only a few of the models go out that far. 

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35 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Very much a split tropospheric vortex.

gfsnh-0-384.png

For a model with a supposed westward/atlantic driven bias, it sure provides us with a lot of eye candy FI that never seems to materialise in upper resolution!

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