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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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8 minutes ago, Kev smith scfc said:

Top post top man so level headed,if we don't get any cold this winter it will be the most unluckiest winter on record.

Nothing to do with luck. If we do not see any cold weather this winter then obviously the variables that dictate our climate were not favourable and those variables were misinterpreted.

Very disappointing output. Just when we were hoping we may see some form of blocking/Cold Spell to hit the UK around Mid Jan, the models are currently suggesting the reverse with an unsettled outlook looking likely with gales. The most disappointing aspect is I see nothing that suggests any form of blocking will develop towards Greenland, infact the complete reverse!

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You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

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3 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Nothing to do with luck. If we do not see any cold weather this winter then obviously the variables that dictate our climate were not favourable and those variables were misinterpreted.

Very disappointing output. Just when we were hoping we may see some form of blocking/Cold Spell to hit the UK around Mid Jan, the models are currently suggesting the reverse with an unsettled outlook looking likely with gales. The most disappointing aspect is I see nothing that suggests any form of blocking will develop towards Greenland, infact the complete reverse!

This suggests a Greenland height rise after 20th toppling to scandi after the continent has been loaded up for a brutal late Jan, Feb 1st 2009 anyone? 9 years to the day only with more frigid uppers.

https://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/strat.php?run=2019010618&var=HGT&lev=1mb&hour=000

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13 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Nothing to do with luck. If we do not see any cold weather this winter then obviously the variables that dictate our climate were not favourable and those variables were misinterpreted.

Very disappointing output. Just when we were hoping we may see some form of blocking/Cold Spell to hit the UK around Mid Jan, the models are currently suggesting the reverse with an unsettled outlook looking likely with gales. The most disappointing aspect is I see nothing that suggests any form of blocking will develop towards Greenland, infact the complete reverse!

Isn’t a more unsettled spell an initial response to the strat warming? It’s mentioned in the Met Office outlook that conditions will turn more unsettled before any possible cold spell.

Edited by MattStoke
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Have to admit I'm totally shocked with what we have on offer at the moment. There was high expectations given all the background signals this winter and absolutely nothing to show for it. For me though I've learnt a BIG lesson this year not to trust the background signals or get overly excited when there is sudden reason to ramp and then nothing happens. Will take everything with a very large pinch of salt in the future now and will certainly keep expectations to a minimum. Think we can all learn a good lesson from all this not to get to carried away over certain events and output. 

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Did chino say a few yrs ago ( I think he was refering to ssw,s) that sometimes the pv can strengthen briefly before weaking after an ssw? Perhaps I'm wrong but i seem to remember him saying something like that before.

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5 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Have to admit I'm totally shocked with what we have on offer at the moment. There was high expectations given all the background signals this winter and absolutely nothing to show for it. For me though I've learnt a BIG lesson this year not to trust the background signals or get overly excited when there is sudden reason to ramp and then nothing happens. Will take everything with a very large pinch of salt in the future now and will certainly keep expectations to a minimum. Think we can all learn a good lesson from all this not to get to carried away over certain events and output. 

Read 62-63's post earlier this evening, it's a great read and answers everything you have just written, cheers

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7 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Have to admit I'm totally shocked with what we have on offer at the moment. There was high expectations given all the background signals this winter and absolutely nothing to show for it. For me though I've learnt a BIG lesson this year not to trust the background signals or get overly excited when there is sudden reason to ramp and then nothing happens. Will take everything with a very large pinch of salt in the future now and will certainly keep expectations to a minimum. Think we can all learn a good lesson from all this not to get to carried away over certain events and output. 

despite the fact it’s January 6th and  nothing is expected to show until mid month or a little beyond ,according to all the experts here and the pros at the Met office.??

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8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Could I politely ask people don't quote the entire post of BB 62 63 they're very well detailed but also long which isn't a problem but when you're on a phone its an awful lot to scroll through.

If you want to thank a member in your post you can do so with @ and the members name (no space) and it'll send them a notification

You don’t have to scroll through it - just click the down arrow at the top of the quoted post and it minimises it. 

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2 hours ago, TEITS said:

Nothing to do with luck. If we do not see any cold weather this winter then obviously the variables that dictate our climate were not favourable and those variables were misinterpreted.

Very disappointing output. Just when we were hoping we may see some form of blocking/Cold Spell to hit the UK around Mid Jan, the models are currently suggesting the reverse with an unsettled outlook looking likely with gales. The most disappointing aspect is I see nothing that suggests any form of blocking will develop towards Greenland, infact the complete reverse!

I value your opinion but mid Jan too early ,end of Jan early February should deliver but what do I know,weather science can make you look silly.

Happy model watching.

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There is some aspects of the SSW coming into play with the Arctic high forming but no model suggests this will play any real role in our weather as of yet.

It's one of those where perhaps it's going to be a small chuck of heights coming around Iceland which could get the ball rolling although at this stage any snow threat still looks a little way off but model outlooks can swing one way to the other and back again frequently. 

I also don't think posts such as giving specific timeframes when the cold might come helps at all with expectation and can be quite unintentionally misleading as they would have no idea really what future runs the models may show no matter how many ensembles they use.

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Huge improvement at 192, very different in the Atlantic. May lead to nothing but a big change at relative short range.

Latest at the bottom

47D35912-F842-4BE8-A374-C66216CBBBEC.png

D55DBDE2-A223-4C4F-9FCA-316DEAE5AF06.png

Edited by Ali1977
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Things are looking much more amplified this morning at just 144, looking at the output it really wouldn’t take much for us to get a surprise turnaround.

Look how much that energy has drained off in the ‘lobe of death’

882D995E-DCF0-473A-9921-8C1E0550B903.png

FB6DF2B9-71E7-45B1-BDD5-F0900B72CC69.png

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4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Huge improvement at 192, very different in the Atlantic. May lead to nothing but a big change at relative short range.

Latest at the bottom

47D35912-F842-4BE8-A374-C66216CBBBEC.png

D55DBDE2-A223-4C4F-9FCA-316DEAE5AF06.png

Yh PV not as beefy around Greenland. Good to see more of an impact on the pole with better hieghts showing. Better troughing into Europe. Also its the OOZ so there's scope for more upgrades later.

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