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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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46 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

ECM Det was an outlier, so that’s some positive news...

AA68C4C9-9853-42D1-9EA6-0515E73BF66D.thumb.png.8794252b0ea74dfb86a9c94c7234e941.png

Brilliant news, I was kind of hoping it would be. Even the GEM has some scope for improvement at the same timeframe as the the JMA at T192, just require a bit more of a wedge. Never know, might see some improvements around D8, hopefully something significant might turn up.

gemeu-0-192.png

gemeu-1-192.png

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You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

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A small straw to clutch going into the 18z  let's see if the northerly is still showing with Greenland height rises around the 300 ish Mark   cold needs to start somewhere  

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8 minutes ago, shotski said:

As far as I know I can put these anomaly charts on here. 

No beast from the East but a northerly blast looks on the cards possibly. 

 

 

What do the isobars look like and does that trough drop a little further south by 360 please?

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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3 hours ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

I will be looking to do a another update on the 8th Jan as that was my date to look out for but here is a summary from my POV 

2. Teleconnections (AO/NAO) and other background factors strat, MJO etc (more knowledgeable posters than me for these, @Bring Back1962-63 @Catacol @Singularity @Glacier Point @lorenzo @Tamara apologies if I missed anyone)

 3. Other models coming on board with the blocking signal, ECM, JMA, NAVGEM, GEM etc could be another few days before they begin to pick it up simply due to the fact they dont go to the same +hr as the GFS, GEFS

 SNIPPED TO SAVE SPACE 

MY CURRENT VIEWS ON THE MODELS AND THE OUTLOOK

That was a great post @Kirkcaldy Weather and should be read by all those who are moaning about the output.  I have very little time now or for a few days - so rather than show loads of charts, I'll make a few bullet point statements on the background signals, the model output and several general comments.

  • No two SSWs are alike - I do not know how many times that has to be said.
  • In my last two posts I tried to show what to look out for with comparisons to the current set up and charts with the 2018 and 2013 SSWs (part 3 on 2009 with likenesses and differences to 2019 to follow by next weekend).
  • What those archived charts showed was just how quickly the HLB patterns developed and the whole northern hemisphere set up changed and evolved.
  • I noted John's @johnholmes comments this morning wrt examining archived "forecast" charts prior to earlier SSW events - something I suggested too - they're available for most of the models now and certainly the big 3.
  • John also queried whether or which previous SSWs had failed to deliver any significant cold here in the UK.  I'll just repeat a table here:

31z.thumb.PNG.1bf5be3091850ae6ffe19ef919f3ccf1.PNG

  • We know that 2018 and 2013 delivered big time and they were split SSW events (2013 displaced and then split) and so did 2008//09 and 2009/10 both also split. The last displaced SSW was in 2007/08 and I believe that can be considered a failure but for that and earlier events, we need to check the archives - and I haven't got time for that but anyone can go by the table above and check the archive charts for the whole SSW period.  Here's the link again:  http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?mode=2&month=1&day=20&year=2008&map=4&type=ncep  I set it to Jan 20th 2008 to get you started.
  • We can take comfort in the fact that most (perhaps almost all) split SSWs have produced decent periods of HLB which have delivered cold to the UK.
  • The teleconnections have NOT let us down at all and contrary to what the usual suspects might be saying through their impatience. 
  • In fact they are almost spot on in terms of what we expected from them - there's a slight problem over precise timing but that's always the case with SSWs and such dramatic pattern changes (which the models cannot handle). 
  • The next three comments were confirmed to me by @Tamaraby PM and I hope she doesn't mind my referring to them as she will continue to avoid this thread with all the confrontation and I fully sympathise with her (our loss).
  • The tropical/extra tropical cycle and forcing has been sufficient to amplify the tropospheric pattern and it's just that the polar field has not "yet" been conducive for HLB and stratospheric dimuition. 
  • She thinks that in January 2013 the tropopause was more receptive  at this stage than it has been so far this time.
  • She feels that "its still barely into the second week of January and there is far too much overreaction in general".  
  • Back to my own comments: That means in both directions - no cold patterns showing or a Siberian wasteland - we're somewhere in the middle right now. 
  • We've a substantial split event ongoing and the best news is that this SSW seems likely to be very protracted, perhaps approaching the 2013 record length and some records are already being achieved up there.  
  • We should have at least two or three bites at the cherry.  
  • The lagged impacts of the MJO through phases 6, 7 and now into 8 may show up within the next 7 to 10 days - favouring HLB.
  • I see that for once the GEFS (bias corrected version) and the ECM are both in broad agreement for a change (long may that last but do not hold your breath) and week 2 MJO forecasts and notoriously unreliable..
  • Although they dive into the COD soon, they both look set to re-emerge in phase 6 and maybe for a quick "rinse and repeat" through phases 6, 7, 8 and 1 again in early Feb.(perhaps later). Something to keep an eye on for sure.
  • The lagged effects of the GWO in phases 5 and 6, albeit at slightly weaker AAM than we had expected is still strong enough to have +ve impacts for the next two weeks. This cycle is likely to repeat in or by early Feb too.
  • The temporary weakening in the El Nino seems to be over and it looks sets to strengthen again - a better tropical state with a weak Nino - gentle forcing but not too strong like the 2015 super Nino..
  • Meanwhile, the SPV destruction continues and may take many days, weeks or perhaps not at all to reform into a more organised fashion.  
  • Overall - an exceptional and truly fascinating period for all the atmospheric processes with an extremely high chance of cold patterns setting up later this month and perhaps for much of February too..
  • We are about to see a transition to a less settled phase but this is probably a sign that there are changes to feed through from the Arctic and towards the mid latitudes - merely timing issues IMHO.
  • Looking at the models, I see that a good number of ensemble members show charts which develop HLB blocking patterns - some as early as day 7/8 and building on the Arctic outbreak, others do this later on in the run.
  • If you study those charts from 2018 and 2013 and indeed some other pre/during/post split SSW events, you'll see that the initial impacts can almost always be seen close to the pole. 
  • Several GEFS ens show a "yellow" HP - a strong sign of a full reversal reaching the surface.  Some show heights building towards a proper Greenland HP and some towards Scandinavia.  
  • Do not worry about the TPV still looking immovable on our side of the Arctic.  What should happen is as (when - not if IMHO) the wind reversals reach the surface is that those low heights are displaced southwards - almost bulldozed out of the way.  Quite often a lobe drops into Scandi and it "looks" like we'll see a true northerly but that would likely be short-lived and transitory but not the normal "toppler type" either.  What happens is that HP builds around the top of the LP and pushes that south into central and southern Europe.  Then that opens the pathway for Siberian and Russian heights to push westwards (which occurred in dramatic fashion to create the "Beast" last Feb/Mar.). Although easterlies have been a rarity in the last 30 years they were much more common back in the '60s to '80s and even mild winters saw several outbreaks. Those associated with SSWs are usually very potent. Then the HP can build towards Iceland and Greenland letting in a true Arctic air stream with north to north east winds - many of our coldest winters see an easterly/northerly combo.
  • When will all this happen? I'm very confident of "this" winter and well before Spring.  No guarantees - there never can be but the current set up is on the verge of something quite dramatic. Frankly, with the strat state as it is and taking account of the other teleconnections, I'll be astounded if we do not see a memorable cold spell in much of Europe, the UK and eastern CONUS, eastern Canada as well as large parts of Asia/Russia/Siberia - not all at the same time but we should all see periods of extended wintry weather. 
  • So, please, please be patient and accept that the models will struggle - which I and others have been saying for a while and I've shown that there has been a slight delay - not for weeks on end!.   

When I'm on here again at the end of this week, I hope that we can all be focusing on some much more attractive output in the mid term. 

David ? 

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Thanks for the kind words @Bring Back1962-63 and another great post by yourself ? whilst we await the snow ? I have just uploaded my snow pics from 2018 

and the 12z ensemble NAEFS keeps the signal for above average heights getting toward Greenland 

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=0&map=1&runpara=

 

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23 minutes ago, shotski said:

As far as I know I can put these anomaly charts on here. 

No beast from the East but a northerly blast looks on the cards possibly. 

 

 

You shouldn’t but you have .......

Edited by bluearmy
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Timely posts worth reading from @Bring Back1962-63 and @damianslaw above. 

Yes, the models look pants at the moment, but as people have said time and again over the last week or so, we aren’t likely to see any substantial effects from the SSW until towards the end of the month. Fully accept the dice may not roll in our favour and we see nothing of note, but if we accept we’re in with a good chance of a cold spell from this SSW and other factors, then people really need to be patient. 

Yes, complain that the next 2 weeks or so look dire (true) but don’t put that down to a failed SSW for our part of the globe. We don’t yet know if it will be a success or failure. Let’s look back in early March to make a reasoned judgment.

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3 minutes ago, shotski said:

I’ve checked with the site I subscribe to and they say I can. 

100% that only operational and ens data to day 10 is for public issue (unless you’re a ‘ventrice’ and you have a number of charts you can tweet each week) 

anyway, you’re not the first person to (I have on the odd occasion) ....... but I would caution against it becoming a common occurrence ..... not sure whether this site or the one you subscribe to would get in bother with Ecmwf.

Edited by bluearmy
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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

If we're not expecting any effects from the SSW until circa January 20th, and the 'background signals' have been indicative of a back-loaded winter for some time, why are model-predictions for January 15th causing so much doom and gloom? What do peeps expect to see, in 10-days' time? Snow Hurricanes? Snownados? The end of civilisation as we know it?

Give it till January 25th, and if sod-all's happening by then, then call it a day? But - not now. Surely??

probably all these reports from europe being clobbered at tbe moment not helping

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20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

100% that only operational and ens data to day 10 is for public issue (unless you’re a ‘ventrice’ and you have a number of charts you can tweet each week) 

anyway, you’re not the first person to (I have on the odd occasion) ....... but I would caution against it becoming a common occurrence ..... not sure whether this site or the one you subscribe to would get in bother with Ecmwf.

TBH i always caution against certain more sensitive charts being posted even when you are allowed to, think logically, some companies are paying over 200k a year, if half the stuff they pay a subscription for is being leaked (even if legitimately) on other sites, they are going to question ECMWF why, even the EC46 on the Icelandic site, i tend to just describe it, problem is people then request it, i think it pays given the financial climate at the moment to not be too blatant about stuff otherwise there might not be jack all of ECMWF available, even the op, without subscription and the ext eps might only end up available on ECMWF and i doubt anyone on here will pay that sort of money to post it on here!!

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

Welcome to Netweather, East801!  Agree it is a difficult pattern for cold lovers, I'm  hopeful that things will look very different by about 25 Jan, 70% chance I reckon.  But no means certain. Here's hoping!

Hi Mike- many thanks...long time follower of NW but new to posting.

I am a lover of all things snow and cold...and check in hourly in the hope of good news on the model front.

It’s been an unusual winter so far, expectations have been high since November when the seasonal models were showing blocking projections around Greenland. GLOSEA set the pulses racing in Nov and Dec and as a result many including myself have naturally been expecting some consistent churn of eye candy charts, which up until now have largely remained in the realms of FI.

The SSW has created much excitement and anticipation, the results of which if any for our tiny island will play out in the next 2 weeks or so.

What those results are for us is anyone’s guess at the moment, none of us can confidently predict this with any degree of assurance.

Let’s just hope Mother Nature plays us the ultimate ace card and we can all enjoy the snowy results we all so richly deserve.

Patience is a virtue I’ve always been told....surely our time will come and we can all look back on the year that tested our resolve to the max but finally rewarded us with the ultimate prize.

A

 

 

Edited by East801
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29 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM individual ensembles tonight - initially bad news, but then better news. Not fantastic for cold between D11 and D13 (only 10-20% of members with realistic potential for cold, let alone snow). But quick changes at D14/D15 (so 20th/21st January), with a sharp increase in the members showing heights building to the W, NW and N (maybe 40% of members), and a general downturn on troughing in the Atlantic.

Yep. Just looked at debilt extended and looks promising. Much better than this morning's. Been here before though. 

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27 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Sorry for sounding a bit off topic but some people don't have the stamina in here sometimes,if you don't like what the charts are showing at the mo,take a break otherwise you will end up with a nervous disposition,seriously!!!

Can clearly see why mean heights are trapped over/ to the SW of us on that 3D plot. It's the Canadian vortex doing the damage.

Edited by CreweCold
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