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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

Posted Images

JMA looks more promising upstream at 192 for at least some amplification in the Atlantic sector by day 10, just depends if that low phases with the trough as a spoiler.

JN192-21.GIF?06-12

Edited by Mucka
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2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

I was like that this morning, hope you don't get the grief I did!

If we're being honest, things are looking poor and getting worse each day.

And what with the catastrophic end of the FV3, you'll be crying yourself to sleep??

It's so darned bad, I feel ashamed to post it! image.thumb.png.44b9be5ea255129b8a1987e192a4889f.png

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Just when you don’t want consistency the ECM delivers the same run it did this morning !

The only positive is the high is flattened and shunted further west . Barring that the PV looks rampant to the north and the wait continues.

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2 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Just to sum up the downgrades this past 24 hours.

ECH1-144.gif

ECH1-168.gif

Spot on theme of winter so far this has been ongoing since early Dec wouldn't be surprised if MO move any cold to middle feb in future outlook ECM 240hr is absolute shocker?.

ECH1-240.gif

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An unsettled spell was always on the cards....if things don’t improve after that, then the boat may have been missed, and this SSW may go into the non downwelling pile. Sit back and wait for a few days more I’m afraid folks.

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It really is time to chill guys. Once the chance of cold around new year went pear shaped it has always been a case of waiting for SSW lag effects to take hold and the landing date for which has always been around 20th we have only one nwp model that goes that far out and surprise surprise it's the only one showing any type of cold right around the correct time. So why are so many of you bemoaning no cold/snow on  7 and 10 day models. 

Please just relax and let it all fall into place at the correct timeframe.

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Admittedly, I haven’t been model watching for many years, but I cannot recall another time when there were such promising background signals yet such dismal model output for such a prolonged time.

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Cold air in place and a wedge just about beginning I reckon. Not to unhappy with that 

73195B6A-7029-4F4D-9913-574C73C2B0A8.png

Easy to just write of the ECM as flat, but I agree with you +240 is very interesting indeed. The transition from +216 to +240 not what you would expect on face value at all.

today-ECH1-216.thumb.GIF.916013e5cd82ece60b9f2c086163ada3.GIF  today-ECH1-240.thumb.GIF.c6c34c7585a03ad40015cc924dfcc982.GIF

It's subtle with all those purples but ridigng is there and the way that low behaves to the west of Ireland? Something is going on. I think that a wedge over the Iceland locale could follow a few days later after D10.

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23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC says no to the UKMO..

Back to scratching around FI for positive signals 

Slowly beginning to lose confidence that this vile Atlantic profile is going to improve anytime soon.. ?

sorry for sounding a bit deflated...

Buddy you can only as positive for so long!!mine has completely worn out!boring ecm tonight!!

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1 minute ago, s4lancia said:

Easy to just write of the ECM as flat, but I agree with you +240 is very interesting indeed. The transition from +216 to +240 not what you would expect on face value at all.

today-ECH1-216.thumb.GIF.916013e5cd82ece60b9f2c086163ada3.GIF  today-ECH1-240.thumb.GIF.c6c34c7585a03ad40015cc924dfcc982.GIF

It's subtle with all those purples but ridigng is there and the way that low behaves to the west of Ireland? Something is going on. I think that a wedge over the Iceland locale could follow a few days later after D10.

EC ENS later may give us an idea!! We need some good news!! 

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Yes the ECM is shocking towards the end ☹️. But the met outlook does say wet and windy and switching between cold /mild . So we should exspect it to be turning unsettled. The colder weather is expected after the unsettled period, so it definitely won’t be showing in any of the models yet it’s at least 20 days away . Maybe take a break for a week and then some cold stuff might be showing (hopefully) . Onwards and upwards . 

Edited by ICE COLD
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8 minutes ago, FiftyShadesofSnow said:

Mate that wedge won't feed a mouse....That NASA Gmao site is interesting...some eye openers there.

That’s very funny ! Thanks that really made me laugh .

There’s no point trying to sugar coat the outputs . I’ve seen worse though . I’m going to keep the faith till mid week to see if we see any concrete changes showing up within the day ten mark . 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Cold air in place and a wedge just about beginning I reckon. Not to unhappy with that 

73195B6A-7029-4F4D-9913-574C73C2B0A8.png

 

BF83EAE2-70D3-483E-A12F-7C5BC2808E7A.png

07810BFE-FDCA-4892-AF77-AB612CADB048.png

Yeah but compared to a few days ago it’s absolutely ? 

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