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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

Posted Images

4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Two charts that share one or two broad-scale synoptic similarities:

image.thumb.png.933e4a893d32e86db4400b97fa9a78b6.pngimage.thumb.png.bb667d2c3e9b166a0996b7e00f1d92ba.png 

So just why so many folks are so downhearted remains a bit of a mystery...

They also share some very important differences, most importantly around S Greenland.

When looking for Atlantic blocking to take hold we always need the ridge West and N of SW tip of Greenland to get Greenland high

Edited by Mucka
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One thing I didn't mention in my earlier post was the AO keeping the same negative theme which is very pleasing ,what we need in the coming days is for it to head even more negative down to around -3/-5 then that should help our cause, but still all good in the valley tonight

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

So UKMO the pick of the bunch at T144 can it be right over ECM and GFS . ECM first image . 

0187CE41-E400-4DF0-ACDD-51521C3A63DB.png

68E6B129-56F2-4BC4-A6B4-B9D50D2619DE.gif

I suspect they will all be different come tomorrow if the last week is anything to go by !!!

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23 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Arctic high has waned a bit today. Sorry, I don't buy it.

 

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Also should of added the UKMO has a stronger Artic high than the ECM

Yes and therein lies the difference. Until we get a clear idea of the level of downwelling of the SSW we won't know the effect on the Arctic profile and therefore the synoptic setup closer to the UK. Both ECM and GFS seem to be having trouble nailing the impact as they change from run to run. Berlin charts show this to some extent.

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38 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

 

 

Not panic worthy IMO taking them in roughly 50h steps from the 100h mark

gens_panel_zuc9.thumb.png.2285cf3f6b61e0b4220e07815179bbff.pnggens_panel_ghb4.thumb.png.218354efb4ce19f8a511542c47440d36.pnggens_panel_mfk3.thumb.png.2854f3a82d22679c3a82b7fae355d5dd.pnggens_panel_wap9.thumb.png.bc44e523730670be20a8331383222f16.pnggens_panel_ukg1.thumb.png.c67039e401cb90f8cced985bd71518ac.pnggens_panel_ijk4.thumb.png.2619b96469f8f719dd9603713fb0dd76.png 

gens_panel_sqf6.thumb.png.d2845f5f50fe67a29ac16d0fd177d8ec.png possible trends still on the table - lows gradually moving NW - SE, above average heights "wedges" Greenland, arctic or scandi and also could be section(s) of the PV shifted / positioned to our NE (should we get into a NE / E feed it could be pretty bitter)

also spotted this from the ensemble NAEFS 0z

naefs-0-0-384.thumb.png.7e20e91fa3d51455a3eea89f822524f4.pngnaefsnh-0-0-384.thumb.png.3409763e6533afac728d9257ed6b65e5.png  yes it is not the strongest of signals but it is at 384h and again a signal for above average heights towards Greenland 

GEM 12z ensembles rolling out

You can see the similarities between the strat now and the 16 day anomaly pressure in the last picture 

0CFF4CA7-BFB5-4BB4-881E-726AE8C90183.png

Edited by Panayiotis
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EC says no to the UKMO..

Back to scratching around FI for positive signals 

Slowly beginning to lose confidence that this vile Atlantic profile is going to improve anytime soon.. ?

sorry for sounding a bit deflated...

Edited by northwestsnow
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2 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Gfs leading the way at the moment with ecm following a day later. Bland and boring is the outlook but signs still there in FI that change to cold is very possible after mid month

Yep GFS is hero today, I’m sure ECM will catch up soon ?

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC says no to the UKMO..

Back to scratching around FI for positive signals 

Slowly beginning to lose confidence that this vile Atlantic profile is going to improve anytime soon.. ?

sorry for sounding a bit deflated...

Don't think it's deflated it's exactly what's being shown  I expect another few weeks of this type of weather  then mid month hopefully a response to the strat  we live in hope 

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC says no to the UKMO..

Back to scratching around FI for positive signals 

Slowly beginning to lose confidence that this vile Atlantic profile is going to improve anytime soon.. ?

sorry for sounding a bit deflated...

I was like that this morning, hope you don't get the grief I did!

If we're being honest, things are looking poor and getting worse each day.

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ECM doesn’t look great but at 216 the jet stream is lowering and 240 could have some pretty cold air in place, it’s what happens after that where the interest now sits

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