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phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:

From stonker to stinker: image.thumb.png.5716e081fd215cde9d72671070ebf8a9.png That's FI for you!😭

I think what will really happen is this. The high over the UK is like Juliet on the balcony waiting and waiting to link up with its Romeo, in this case a high pressure over Scandinavia. Just when it looks like its search as been all in vain, Romeo suddenly appears out of the blue, confounding all who could previously see no sign of it developing in the models. They meet up and make mad passionate winter for the next two months!

(NB  no...I have never actually read the original story or seen the play!!)

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Mods you might as well just put this thread bk to model chat and we can all keep Knocker company. Because to say It gone of the rails is an understatement. Seems pointless in being called Hunt for cold. Few suggestions, Crystal ball, I have a hunch thread, Winter is over bring on the Summer thread.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Good grief. The moderators in this thread really have the patience of Jobe. 

 

Some of the gfuqhgfpjhing, sniping and downright childish responses to reasoned posts are more fit for kindergarten yards.

Back on thread, It has constantly been said that just after mid month is when we would see the response effecting our neighborhood from the SSW, The ECM only goes out to the 15th today, the GFS, shows what is possible after mid month.

 

I’m not saying the GFS is on the money, but please, can we all just keep the toys in the pram? It’s becoming quite tedious in here.

gfsnh-15-6.thumb.png.34b423d4cbb1014a37f8f550a8d8295c.png

I think that there has been an initial response to the SSW with cold covering most of E.Europe and anomalous cold uppers in N Africa. It would appear that the UK has missed this early cold and is in the milder sector!

The clock is ticking on the SSW and I think some are frustrated that early doors we have missed out, and now going forward a waiting game for 2 weeks with plenty of extreme cold missing us to the east.

No one knows the length of this event and whether or not missing out early will be a sign or just a delay? We can be a glass half full but those looking at it the other way have a point!

 

Edited by IDO
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6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I really don't understand all the negativity, surely some cold zonality is better than all the predominantly  benign mildish dross coldies have endured so far this winter???..I'm seeing some increase in wintry potential in the outlook..surely something to celebrate?

Very true, Karl. And, more often than not, a major change to cold, snowy weather coming from the North is preceded by few days' progressively cooler 'zonality'...? I doubt very much that widespread snow & blizzards are just going to pop-up out of nowhere, catching us all by surprise... 🤔

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Mods you might as well just put this thread bk to model chat and we can all keep Knocker company. Because to say It gone of the rails is an understatement. Seems pointless in being called Hunt for cold. Few suggestions, Crystal ball, I have a hunch thread, Winter is over bring on the Summer thread.

Nooooooo please keep it...it's making me laugh so much...more so than the actual weather!

image.jpeg

Edited by FiftyShadesofSnow
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Just to remind you all there is a more casual thread for non model chat in the banter and moans thread. Honestly, just post in there rather than clogging this thread with chit chat and vague statements grasping at straws.

Ta.

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5 minutes ago, IDO said:

gfsnh-15-6.thumb.png.34b423d4cbb1014a37f8f550a8d8295c.png

I think that there has been an initial response to the SSW with cold covering most of E.Europe and anomalous cold uppers in N Africa. It would appear that the UK has missed this early cold and is in the milder sector!

The clock is ticking on the SSW and I think some are frustrated that early doors we have missed out, and now going forward a waiting game for 2 weeks with plenty of extreme cold missing us to the east.

No one knows the length of this event and whether or not missing out early will be a sign or just a delay? We can be a glass half full but those looking at it the other way have a point!

 

In 2013 we had a initial response which gave that massive snow event on I think the 18th of January but we also went very cold in March so not all is lost but I still think by the end of January it will be cold.

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16 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Good grief. The moderators in this thread really have the patience of Jobe. 

 

Some of the gfuqhgfpjhing, sniping and downright childish responses to reasoned posts are more fit for kindergarten yards.

Back on thread, It has constantly been said that just after mid month is when we would see the response effecting our neighborhood from the SSW, The ECM only goes out to the 15th today, the GFS, shows what is possible after mid month.

 

I’m not saying the GFS is on the money, but please, can we all just keep the toys in the pram? It’s becoming quite tedious in here.

And don't forget ecm saw cold before but swung the other way recently, so nothing is set in stone, it can swing back to cold again just like that. Although admittedly nothing exciting for at least a the next week plus few extra days for a new pattern to set up 

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1 minute ago, WhiteFox said:

I applaud those who produce long range forecasts; they often put a lot of hard work into their posts, place their neck on the block and are far too often decapitated. As a result, some unfortunately take their efforts elsewhere.

It's worth differentiating between probabilities and exact outcomes. A split in the TPV looks probable, but not guaranteed (unless I've missed some information). If this does happen, then it increases the likelihood of cold air dropping south and affecting the UK. The SSW has not yet propagated down to the Troposhere and until (or even if) it does we cannot be sure of the effect it will have on our weather. At the moment, the models are starting to play around with various scenarios based on hugely complex interactions through multiple levels of the atmosphere, so is it any surprise we are seeing swings in the latter stages of output? 

Most LR forecasters I've read are based on the SSW impact. Until we see the effects we cannot judge accuracy and even if they are wrong, its a learning process based on a huge effort which is largely unrewarded and even criticised. 

Give people a break!

 

Let’s just get this straight , I would never put down the very very knowledgable people who do long range forecasts on this forum , I love all of there input . From @Steve Murr @bluearmy @Glacier Point@Catacol and many many more It’s what makes this forum great . I was more saying the LR models ala EC46 has been showing wintry outputs but really never getting no closer than 3 weeks away . The same with the meto updates witch are half based on th EC46 . 

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I really don't understand all the negativity, surely some cold zonality is better than all the predominantly  benign mildish dross coldies have endured so far this winter???..I'm seeing some increase in wintry potential in the outlook..surely something to celebrate?

Hi Frosty, you've been banging the cold zonal drum for a while, and it does look from the model output you will get your wish, for a while.  But I really can't see the attraction, maybe it's a location thing?  The chances of snow in Oxfordshire (for example - don't want to get too IMBY!) from such a set up is zilch! 

My take on the morning runs is that we have 10 days of further dross to get through, but beyond that then the wintry charts will start to show as the SSW begins to have an effect that impacts the UK - at the moment it doesn't, the only noticeable feature from it in the reliable modelling is the Arctic high and that's not affecting us at the moment.  

GEFS zonal wind charts today again show a prolonged reversal in the strat - this must make its impact felt more strongly soon, and possibly for an extended period thereafter.  

image.thumb.jpg.5e37a49a839aac6b48e60fd0f9ad4391.jpg

Like others have said, patience is the watchword. 

Edit - would help if I actually included the chart, lol!

Edited by Mike Poole
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22 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

 The ECM only goes out to the 15th today, the GFS, shows what is possible after mid month.

ECM at day 10 though says no to any cold spells for at least a further 5 days down the line if you look at the NH profile. GFS out towards endof the month doesn’t show much promise either, so it’s not outrageous to suggest that the wait / hunt will probably go on into Feb ? 

6FC3845A-8D66-42A1-A3B8-8AD02090BF8D.png

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20 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

TBF Nick it’s been another fail of long range modelling again this winter . We have had promising signs for a good wintry spell of weather since November and we have seen zilch . Nothing really for the next 10 days at least . February will soon be knocking on the door it’s so annoying ☹️. The meto updates have been looking brilliant but wintry weather has never come closer . The EC 46 had stunning output for jan , again never got any closer . This is not a winters over post but would of been good to have a late December and January cold and snow for once and all the signs were looking so great from everyone . So it’s so disappointing to still not of had any wintry weather so far . 🙏🏻

I thought I would have a look back at the 46 and see when it promised low height anomoly to our s and high to our nw with associated low uppers and T2’s

Date of run:  first week showing the above 

3/12               None

6/12.               Week 6.5 centred 21/1

10/12.             Week 6. Centred 17/1

13/12.              Week 4.5 centred 14/1

17/12.              Week 5.5 centred 28/1

20/12.              Week 5 centred 24/1

24/12.            Week 4.5 centred 25/1

27/12.            Week 4.5 Centred 28/1

31/12.           Week 4 Centred 28/1

3/1.               Week 3.5. Centred 28/1

so, the ec 46 promised the onset of winter mid jan for a couple runs towards mid dec but in general, it’s been solid on period post 20/1. From my perspective, I saw it coming earlier on the basis of possible QTR from the ssw and then the standard downwelling wave around 12th jan.  I assume Exeter were on that horse too with their earlier ‘potential’

if winter does onset between  the 20/1 and 30/1, then the ec46 could never be dissed again! 

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6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Very true, Karl. And, more often than not, a major change to cold, snowy weather coming from the North is preceded by few days' progressively cooler 'zonality'...? I doubt very much that widespread snow & blizzards are just going to pop-up out of nowhere, catching us all by surprise... 🤔

Indeed pete, I'm happy to say there's no downgrade from exeter and the GEFS is still indicating an increasing chance of wintry weather..thank gawd there is an end in sight to the predominantly vile boring pattern we have seen so far this winter!!!..model watching should become more interesting from now on!!😉

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For me please keep the hunt for cold forum . I think over the next several days we will start to see some really good charts appearing, not a hunch, but a gradual process bringing much lower 850 mb temperatures south , and possibly STORMY conditions, for me this is a start in the right direction and it's only January 6th , I'm excited ,STELLAS and Sausage naps with brown sauce are on me ,think I meant Naps, damn BAPS .CHEERS .❄️

 

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Hi Frosty, you've been banging the cold zonal drum for a while, and it does look from the model output you will get your wish, for a while.  But I really can't see the attraction, maybe it's a location thing?  The chances of snow in Oxfordshire (for example - don't want to get too IMBY!) from such a set up is zilch! 

My take on the morning runs is that we have 10 days of further dross to get through, but beyond that then the wintry charts will start to show as the SSW begins to have an effect that impacts the UK - at the moment it doesn't, the only noticeable feature from it in the reliable modelling is the Arctic high and that's not affecting us at the moment.  

GEFS zonal wind charts today again show a prolonged reversal in the strat - this must make its impact felt more strongly soon, and possibly for an extended period thereafter.  

Like others have said, patience is the watchword. 

It happened in February, I think a cold spell is going to suddenly appear on the charts out of nowhere very soon on the models will stick with it...

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1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

ECM at day 10 though says no to any cold spells for at least a further 5 days down the line if you look at the NH profile. GFS out towards endof the month doesn’t show much promise either, so it’s not outrageous to suggest that the wait / hunt will probably go on into Feb ? 

6FC3845A-8D66-42A1-A3B8-8AD02090BF8D.png

With respect, if that chart verifies in 10 days, it will be a miracle. You’re missing the point of my post!

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Just now, Leon1 said:

It happened in February, I think a cold spell is going to suddenly appear on the charts out of nowhere very soon on the models will stick with it...

Before or after 300 hours? lol 

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15 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

I applaud those who produce long range forecasts; they often put a lot of hard work into their posts, place their neck on the block and are far too often decapitated. As a result, some unfortunately take their efforts elsewhere.

It's worth differentiating between probabilities and exact outcomes. A split in the TPV looks probable, but not guaranteed (unless I've missed some information). If this does happen, then it increases the likelihood of cold air dropping south and affecting the UK. The SSW has not yet propagated down to the Troposhere and until (or even if) it does we cannot be sure of the effect it will have on our weather. At the moment, the models are starting to play around with various scenarios based on hugely complex interactions through multiple levels of the atmosphere, so is it any surprise we are seeing swings in the latter stages of output? 

Most LR forecasters I've read are based on the SSW impact. Until we see the effects we cannot judge accuracy and even if they are wrong, its a learning process based on a huge effort which is largely unrewarded and even criticised. 

Give people a break!

 

Well said that man,we were never going to get QTR because we did not get a SSW we had a DSW ,one feature of a DSW is very slow down welling to trop but when it happens it could be long lasting,( research a DSW fascinating.

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Just now, Optimus Prime said:

Before or after 300 hours? lol 

Before hopefully 🤣

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Just now, Optimus Prime said:

Before or after 300 hours? lol 

Always between 198 and 240h in the ensemble 

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1 minute ago, ArHu3 said:

Always between 198 and 240h in the ensemble 

Equal numbers of mild and cold members generally with no clear direction. Getting the cold into the semi-reliable doesn't seem to want to happen yet. 2013 when it was like a rat up a drainpipe, this year that rat is an elephant and it ain't getting any closer. 

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Equal numbers of mild and cold members generally with no clear direction. Getting the cold into the semi-reliable doesn't seem to want to happen yet. 2013 when it was like a rat up a drainpipe, this year that rat is an elephant and it ain't getting any closer. 

You can't get an elephant up a drainpipe.  🐘

ICON 12z up soon, let's hope for a few pleasant upgrades, we need them...

Edited by Mike Poole
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5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Let’s just get this straight , I would never put down the very very knowledgable people who do long range forecasts on this forum , I love all of there input . From @Steve Murr @bluearmy @Glacier Point@Catacol and many many more It’s what makes this forum great . I was more saying the LR models ala EC46 has been showing wintry outputs but really never getting no closer than 3 weeks away . The same with the meto updates witch are half based on th EC46 . 

Fair enough, and it wasn't a dig at yourself! But we have to remember that we are still very much at the experimental and theoretical edge of knowledge when it comes to forecasts beyond a couple of weeks (some would say beyond five days!) and some of the things we have learned over the past few years would have seemed utterly inconceivable just five years ago. 

For the moment we have to accept that forecasts beyond a week cannot offer much more than probabilities of an overall pattern based on an imperfect set of inputs. Last year's forecasts following the SSW were the best I've ever seen (I remember following the BFTE from as far out as three weeks based on the musings of the knowledgeable members on here), and even then we still had variations in the NWP models. We will never have perfect information being input and the current setup introduces huge new and rarely modelled complexities to the NWP models.

All we can be sure of is that at some point the pattern will change; probability seems to favour an outbreak of cold at some stage, indeed GEFS ensembles are hinting at just such a change. I'll sit back and enjoy the ride!

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