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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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MJO Phase 7, split vortex, GWO phase 5-6 and this is the result. A Far cry from UKMO and ECMWF seasonal models from their initial cold updates. once again it proves that NAO is the wild card and has failed to go negative despite plenty of positive background signals. UK/IE is once again going to look at FEB/March for winter to arrive.like most recent climo

ECH1-240.gif

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You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

Posted Images

11 minutes ago, carinthian said:

The above post talks about mild high influence, well this mornings chart from ECM below at 144t highlights its worst feature and that's the anticyclone embedded in the mid -latitude jet. These charts just put my mind set in a deep winter blues mode, mainly based on past horrid winter experiences (above post ) We have to get out of this set up very soon. I know the longer term charts keep promising deep cold but its always jam tomorrow. Heck , I need to get out into the mountains quickly as its just the same mild scenario out here in Western Canada ( still waiting for the cold )  Picture below with the family on Jerico Beach is looking across English Bay towards North Vancouver and typical of Vancouver January weather, possibly worse than Northwest England.  Anyway, that's enough of my downbeat analysis and hope things take a turn for the better in our hunt for cold both here and back in Blighty.

ECMOPEU00_144_1.png

49479653_1966940230022581_2706574624845463552_n.jpg

Isn't lows moving from NW to SE what we want in the mid term with pressure rising behind them?

Could be snowy for those in the north on the right side of the jet.

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8 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Nothing special in the gfs output with just NW - N’’ies. We need some HLB to deliver country wide snowfall and not just the favoured northern regions!

Depends what you mean favoured Northern regions...I'd be happy enough with a northerly or a north easterly, but the beast from the east didn't deliver here because of the rain shadow from the pennines.

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7 minutes ago, jules216 said:

MJO Phase 7, split vortex, GWO phase 5-6 and this is the result. A Far cry from UKMO and ECMWF seasonal models from their initial cold updates. once again it proves that NAO is the wild card and has failed to go negative despite plenty of positive background signals. UK/IE is once again going to look at FEB/March for winter to arrive.like most recent climo

ECH1-240.gif

Cold arriving around the 18th on the GFS which it has been showing in one way or another for the last few days. 

The ECM is only going up to the 16th and hardly shows a raging Bartlett.

People need to chill a little - if it doesn't happen then at least we have summer to look forward to.

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7 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Depends what you mean favoured Northern regions...I'd be happy enough with a northerly or a north easterly, but the beast from the east didn't deliver here because of the rain shadow from the pennines.

The beast from the east didn’t go for long enough to affect wider areas IMO. Hoping this SSW would deliver more widespread snowfall!

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4 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Isn't lows moving from NW to SE what we want in the mid term with pressure rising behind them?

Could be snowy for those in the north on the right side of the jet.

Hi RD , I would think looking at the 240t chart from ECM it offers little prospect of snow based on the 850mb temp forecasts. Looks like both ECM/GFS are becoming more zonal by Mid term but of course they could be wrong.

ECMOPEU00_240_2.png

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The ECM remains flat upstream with the jet sliding SE over the UK in the latter stages, but the next 10 days uppers wise above average: tempresult_vvp8.gif1234365396_ECH1-240(2).thumb.gif.9e2da5f69b0d1db336f265b34cbb5279.gif

The D10 ECM looks poor, a slow burner from there to get any HLB'ing^^^

We should see the background signals kick in at this range so I am not sure what is going on, however, there are other variables that may override or delay these?

GEM also similar to ECM... gemnh-0-240.thumb.png.f4fd965e7c9b00ab3ec7a96704f253fa.png

...the PV stuck over this side of the globe circulating to our north. If these two models are right it will be another period before we see improvement.

The GFS is better, the PV more disorganised, but that model is supposedly rubbish at that range so little probative value in that! Joking aside the GEFS go to Jan 21 and they are slowly moving, run by run, to show more interest:

gens_panel_qgh5.png

All SSW's are different and this looks a slow burner. Plenty of time this year so still all to play for. I doubt even the experts could be confident how this plays out.

** The usual caveats; as to the above this is what is currently showing in the models and that it is taken as given that things will change as we move through January!

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Hi RD,

And lows travelling on a NW to SE axis is what Ian Currie, envisaged. Having read the rather confusing METO updates of the last few days, with talk of colder weather during the second half of January but also the chance of milder weather, too. IMO and reading between the lines, to me that suggests lows sliding S.E. with perhaps the coldest of the weather likely to hang on, in the N and E but the S and W, at risk from turning milder at times, as that boundary between N.E.and S.W., fluctuates around the track of these lows. Very much a less extreme version of Dec.1981.

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

Edited by TomSE12
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7 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Cold arriving around the 18th on the GFS which it has been showing in one way or another for the last few days. 

The ECM is only going up to the 16th and hardly shows a raging Bartlett.

People need to chill a little - if it doesn't happen then at least we have summer to look forward 

I can't care less of UK snow nowdays,just pointing out some facts about how cold is being put backwards constantly,if you have kept records of cold rampers posts you would have seem numerous being wrong,even teleconnective experts.I am not saying that ECMWF will be right,but if would then it will take some days for HLB in NAO domain.How would you drain those low heights from Greenland? An it has been this -NAO that was touted to be the route to cold by seasonals.

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8 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Hi RD , I would think looking at the 240t chart from ECM it offers little prospect of snow based on the 850mb temp forecasts. Looks like both ECM/GFS are becoming more zonal by Mid term but of course they could be wrong.

ECMOPEU00_240_2.png

Yes, I take your point but the 850s do tend to be under done a little at that range. 

Either way, great charts for the Scottish ski industry. 

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29 minutes ago, jules216 said:

 once again it proves that NAO is the wild card and has failed to go negative despite plenty of positive background signals.

I thought that any changes that might occur would be during the second half of January? That chart you posted is mid January. 

NAO is just a measurement of the pressure difference  between two points again I thought any changes that might occur would be during the second half of January?

 

 

Edited by Weather-history
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3 minutes ago, jules216 said:

I can't care less of UK snow nowdays,just pointing out some facts about how cold is being put backwards constantly,if you have kept records of cold rampers posts you would have seem numerous being wrong,even teleconnective experts.I am not saying that ECMWF will be right,but if would then it will take some days for HLB in NAO domain.How would you drain those low heights from Greenland? An it has been this -NAO that was touted to be the route to cold by seasonals.

Yes, I try not to pay attention to anyone one too much as nobody is correct 100% of the time.

We can't control the weather, best not to get too stressed about it and just enjoy snow every decadel event that happens down here!

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16 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Yes, I take your point but the 850s do tend to be under done a little at that range. 

Either way, great charts for the Scottish ski industry. 

I hope so. They are having a tough time so far especially with the mountain train defunct. Crazy really as the Austrian Resorts are currently snowbound !

C

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GFS has found some consistancy with a wedge of high pressure to the west and a stalling pattern around 18th...the recent 00z is a big improvement on yesterday's.. 

As Jules says above, IF we don't get a blocking pattern somewhere over or near to us late Jan and the ecm day 10 pattern persists then it's certainly back to the drawing board regarding teleconnections!

GFSOPEU00_300_1.png

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Clusters will likely reveal more no doubt,but at this juncture its looking like mid Jan will be too early for coldies....(As Exeter have suggested )

Still expecting some wedges to shown their hand post day 10 but its looks like its going to be a real struggle to shut down that Atlantic jet, so, no straightforward route to cold looking at EC - MHO..

 

 

 

image.png

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@MattHugo81: 00Z EC ENS are highly uninspiring and actually follow a very 'flat' 00Z EC model. Apart from frost Tue/Wed of this week temps persistently above freezing and with little risk of colder weather prior to mid-month. Beyond that, still all to play for, but nothing prior to then...

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12 hours ago, carinthian said:

Just thought I would post this winter chart below back from 1973. I remember working on these charts back in my Gatwick days and thinking what a frustrating winter that was. Similar to present set up synoptically. Those days we had limited model forecasts and SSW was not a feature in long range forecasting. That winter delivered brief northerly outbreaks but predominated by high pressure around the British Isles that kept the cold away from much of Britain which remained under a mild high influence for nearly 3 month. It can be a frustrating waiting for the cold when promising so much. I just hope for @Catacol sake , that the high in the wrong position eventually delivers as I do not wish him to take up Knitting next winter !

NOAA_1_1973010518_1.png

Winter 1973? We should be so lucky!

Yes it was mild overall but that hid several notable snowy spells including a near nationwide event on January 20th and widespread snow from a arctic North westerly during the second week of February.

If I see that amount of snow this winter I will dance in the stuff naked!

Back to the models and despite the hype its a return of the MLB in the medium term with anticyclonic gloom for the UK and wintry conditions for Greece. Oh the joy.

Andy

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ECM and GEM both again showing zonal runs with a raging vortex at day 10.

I'm sorry, I'm really starting to think this isn't going to happen for us.  We were told the Armageddon runs would start appearing around Christmas.  Twelve days later....

ECH1-240_qhx6.GIF

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10 minutes ago, IDO said:

@MattHugo81: 00Z EC ENS are highly uninspiring and actually follow a very 'flat' 00Z EC model. Apart from frost Tue/Wed of this week temps persistently above freezing and with little risk of colder weather prior to mid-month. Beyond that, still all to play for, but nothing prior to then...

Do you have a second job telling kids santa isn't real?

?

I certainly agree that the EC mean is not very pretty viewing ,at any point really..

So, it wasn't really a suprise the ENS are rubbish...

I stand by my earlier post that we will begin to see wedges soonafter- but certainly acknowledge, at face value , the nirvana charts are shrouded in fog...on EC at any rate..

Edited by northwestsnow
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5 minutes ago, KTtom said:

GFS has found some consistancy with a wedge of high pressure to the west and a stalling pattern around 18th...the recent 00z is a big improvement on yesterday's.. 

As Jules says above, IF we don't get a blocking pattern somewhere over or near to us late Jan and the ecm day 10 pattern persists then it's certainly back to the drawing board regarding teleconnections!

GFSOPEU00_300_1.png

Yes, we've heard about teleconnections for weeks now. The so called 'experts' have talked about the incredibly positive background signals, although they have also pointed out that they don't necessarily guaranteee UK cold.

Indeed, presumably it's possible we could end up with unusual warmth? 

The problem for me is that none of the NWP output shows anything particularly unusual, and we're looking now up to 3 weeks past SSW beginning. 

There is I think an irrational and almost religious obsession with teleconnections among some. But I suspect that our understanding of such is probably relatively immature in scientific terms, and I say that with full respect to those involved in researching this. But I think that this winter is painfully exposing the limits of our understanding. 

 

 

 

 

 

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7 minutes ago, warrenb said:

Looks like the METO long range is bang on the money at the moment.  Charts showing exactly what it says

Quite so Warren. This was always likely to be the case despite some of the GFS runs showing it earlier. Although to be fair I think this mornings 00z run GFS run  is a pretty good representation of f the what Meto longer term is saying.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

Clusters will likely reveal more no doubt,but at this juncture its looking like mid Jan will be too early for coldies....(As Exeter have suggested )

Still expecting some wedges to shown their hand post day 10 but its looks like its going to be a real struggle to shut down that Atlantic jet, so, no straightforward route to cold looking at EC - MHO..

 

 

 

image.png

ECM op certainly says no to any mid month cold and snow as the core of the trop pv goes home to Greenland.

I fear it will be late January now in this Winter of manyana.

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