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phil nw.

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

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And the hints I mentioned are back on the 06 run with the high starting to block at T 300 but don't be surprised if the 12 run changes back to no real block at all ,but gradually the seeds are growing 

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You wake up full of expectations which will never be met ..... thereafter things look like an improvement on that let down .......

Hmm remember you mentioning that to someone else the other day!!could be that but few others have mentioned the same thing so might not be that aswell!!

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I’d say a better set of ENS again, they have been steadily improving even though the app may not have been. -4/5 850s for many, -6c 850s in NE Scotland. 

Sorry cant find the charts, just looking at the mean 

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Lots of support for the op run in the ensembles surprisingly. Lovely set. What was the 00z about?? 

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1 minute ago, Leo97t said:

Lots of support for the op run in the ensembles surprisingly. Lovely set. What was the 00z about?? 

Lets hope they dont flatten out!!!thats my fear!!start of with all the promise in the world then it gets down to 144 hours and back to square one!!

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51 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Yes but at +336. Dream on...

Not necessarily a dream as we should be looking later into these runs for the downwelling to commence. What happens before is not as important but more of a bonus!!!

MNR

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31 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

LOL..

Yes i didn't say it will pan out exactly like that but its a lovely chart 🙂

Indeed a better run between the horror ones but that's what you get with these chart runs beyond T 144 ever changing endings which will completely confuse us and maybe frustrate us if we let them

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1 hour ago, The BEAST From The East said:

As much as it's Frustrating  for us not seeing anything cold or snowy on the models yet it must be even more Frustrating  for the More Experienced members on here who keep explaining to us and writing some Great detailed posts about the real action hopefully starting around Mid Month onwards... 

I think some of the frustration may come from members waiting for 'jam tomorrow' which is a situation that 'appears' ongoing when we are dealing with the vagaries of our climate!the debate in here is very informative, but already this winter I have seen talk of an impending freeze just after Christmas,the first week of January and now Mid Month!

I'm sure we had the same conversations last winter, with dates being ' rolled back a couple of weeks' until we finally struck gold in late February.

These are ' Windows of opportunity' for us to strike gold with a spell of colder weather, not a garuntee of course!

Edited by sunnijim

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Clusters are back for past two eps but only the control cluster post day 10 which means the extended are too difuse to cluster within six options ! 

strange that the extended ens all head to similar means but the eps can’t cluster that within six options. I guess it probably means we are getting to the expected place but slightly different ways of getting there which aren’t significantly different to each other .....

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Not sure I agree on the ensembles I’m afraid, well it depends what you’re after, if you want cold zonal they are very good but for sustained cold they aren’t that significant, most of the good ones seem to have rinse repeat N/NW topplers, which probably because of my location doesn’t excite me all too much.

If you’re looking at the 850s mean the -4 average doesn’t get over the entire country until 13 days time, which you could say is good but we haven’t moved any closer to this for days now.

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Regarding the differences sometimes seen between morning and afternoon runs .

Could it be due to the amount of certain data available. I remember many years ago we had a page stating how much data like airplane , balloon etc went into each GFS run .

The one area I know for a fact which suffers from sparse data are portions of the Pacific . NCEP often refer to that as problems with certain forecasts .

It could be that certain set ups are more sensitive to the type of data fed in .

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With signs of a pronounced Arctic high now appearing consistently around the 10 day mark, pushing the polar vortex lobes further apart, I started to wonder how unusual this winter has been in terms of a lack of polar vortex integrity...?

Realise this is slightly off topic (sorry mods) but I’d be particularly interested to hear from some of the experienced guys and gals on here about this...when was the last time we had an early winter period with such a weak, uncohesive vortex?

Maybe it happens all the time and I’m just too new to the game to have been aware...

D9B74E97-4F7B-4B4C-AE5F-F35E4BB3DBD2.jpeg

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3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Regarding the differences sometimes seen between morning and afternoon runs .

Could it be due to the amount of certain data available. I remember many years ago we had a page stating how much data like airplane , balloon etc went into each GFS run .

The one area I know for a fact which suffers from sparse data are portions of the Pacific . NCEP often refer to that as problems with certain forecasts .

It could be that certain set ups are more sensitive to the type of data fed in .

That has to be the only explanation, because there isn't a great deal of difference in the overall verification stats between different runs of the same model, certainly not between 0z and 12z.

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For quite a few weeks charts like the below haven’t even been showing, to have them now showing in a time period when the more experienced members are alluding to should give us increased confidence that we ‘may’ see what we want on the ground in the next few weeks. Should we be having the same discussion over and over come end of March, then maybe this year was not mean’t to be

24E3F7BC-CB23-4EEE-B4C8-076E17FE92CB.png

A7211D8E-E83A-47F5-BE10-A4E866CCAF96.png

9C998420-0A69-419A-9215-EA7C82C6D989.png

3D778300-59EE-49C0-9910-4C90858DEE4E.png

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That has to be the only explanation, because there isn't a great deal of difference in the overall verification stats between different runs of the same model, certainly not between 0z and 12z.

I agree . The problem with the stats though is we don’t get them region specific, Just NH and SH  . In the UK which is often at the boundary between cold and milder weather, small errors can make a big difference.

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19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I agree . The problem with the stats though is we don’t get them region specific, Just NH and SH  . In the UK which is often at the boundary between cold and milder weather, small errors can make a big difference.

I kept a Europe link from long ago. Still seems to be working but way behind with November as last verification. The 12z ECM has slightly better stats than the 00Z .

https://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/scores/mean/500_z#

plot_meteogram_json-gorax-blue-006-b6a07

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Please guys. This model thread should be where we are discussing what they are showing and NOT arguing. 

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I believe the fi frames on the 6z will be most welcome, and judging by what Nick F posted a few pages back with the lag effect of the MJO and coupled with the ssw downwelling lag we may see a period in between where cold zonal will be the form horse before amplification in the mid Atlantic linked with MJO phase 7/8 arrive and I believe a link up of the arctic high forming over the pole linked to the ssw downwelling will then get us to the holy grail and lock in cold for a good spell. I would include pics but can’t as on my phone. 

Its been a painfully slow process it seems but, a process allot of the pros have been talking about on here and on social media.

Patients is the buzz word it seems and we will need to be but rewards will be coming in plentiful supply starting with sliders and raw nw winds followed by a true arctic northerly. 

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6 hours ago, Surrey said:

Well if GFS is anything to go by Europe is going to have a massive thaw mid to end of next week... Before that though more cold..

unfortunately after yesterdays upgrades short term they have all backed tracked this morning including ECM

image.thumb.png.1959cd5e2d548c23b7e0ddc85a7b0f99.png 

EDIT: ECM keeps the colder air over EU much better slight warm up but nothing like the goofus...

Still think end of Month.. Next week we should start to see more juicy charts.. Anything before then is a bonus!

 

Lol, GFS. For my location UKMO says the temperature won't rise above 0 from now until end of its output. I know which I'd trust and that isn't just because it shows cold, even if it was the other way around I'd still trust Exeter's output. 

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That has to be the only explanation, because there isn't a great deal of difference in the overall verification stats between different runs of the same model, certainly not between 0z and 12z.

 

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

I agree . The problem with the stats though is we don’t get them region specific, Just NH and SH  . In the UK which is often at the boundary between cold and milder weather, small errors can make a big difference.

Agree with both of these, I have kept my eye on the verification stats for a few years, and certainly I would suggest there is no statistically significant difference between the 0z and 12z for the same model.  

Any difference for our neck of the woods can only be due to the different data input for the two runs, but I'm pretty sure that on average the 0z suite tend to be more zonal in the Atlantic sector and the 12z more amplified. 

Here's the current day 6 stats for 0z:

image.thumb.jpg.777420b3bf91625fd371b6bf2112604f.jpg

For 12z:

image.thumb.jpg.afe4624eba9ce43efa61350754cf88db.jpg

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