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phil nw.

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

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Im not saying SSW are a guarntee a path to cold for the UK in particular, my concern is how none of the models are showing hardly any impact to the polar vortex even into the future. 

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As much as it's Frustrating  for us not seeing anything cold or snowy on the models yet it must be even more Frustrating  for the More Experienced members on here who keep explaining to us and writing some Great detailed posts about the real action hopefully starting around Mid Month onwards... 

Edited by The BEAST From The East
Added

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5 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

Yes but at +336. Dream on...

LOL..

Yes i didn't say it will pan out exactly like that but its a lovely chart 🙂

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14 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

In recent years there seems to have been a much greater understanding of warming events and their scope for impacts on climate.

However, when an event is in the pipeline rightly or wrongly I garner that many people ( tabloid journalists,many weather enthusiasts here and elsewhere) assume it means this little island of ours will be plunged into a colder spell at the very least.

We know things played out in our favour at the end of February 2018, however I can think of a few warming events that have not delivered to our tiny island in recent years.

Could there be Weather forum members in places like Denmark right now that are using the same evidence we have at our disposal to think this current cycle of warming ' is further down the line'  than many people keen on an arctic incursion for the UK would hope,as  areas just to our East and South are plunged into the depths of winter?

In short, are the effects of this most recent SSW well under way at 'ground level' in areas very close to home on a global scale?

Does an SSW weather event really mean that HP will definatly set up shop in a position to favour the UK for snow?

I just feel it has to be made clear,SSW does not garuntee cold/ snow for our island, although does increase the possibility.

Check the strat thread on here - several international contributors. in fact the latest post this morning includes a review of the 2018 event from the Netherlands.

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12 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

I wonder what’s happened for the sudden strengthening of the vortex, this is is at day 10, judging by the latest runs the best we can possibly hope for is cold mobility.

7349A2B3-9DAC-4986-93FD-F0122D9A231B.png

Zonal winds being flushed out as the vortex disruption descends. Short term pain, long term gain. Having said this - I am aware we have been talking "long term" all winter so far...but the direction of travel is still the right one.

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Then again, T+312 is hinting at Sliderland...Again!:santa-emoji:

image.thumb.png.064d381e7e48c563c8a0cba7d8d2e835.pngand finally:image.thumb.png.85fb2969bf0382bfd390b8a96598f77a.png

Things are still going in the right direction, overall...

Edited by Ed Stone

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And so it begins the 0z brings depression the 06z brings delight etc.

Having said that the 06z is very suggestive of how I think things post mid Jan will pan out 

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8 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

As much as it's Frustrating  for us not seeing anything cold or snowy on the models yet it must be even more Frustrating  for the More Experienced members on here who keep explaining to us and writing some Great detailed posts about the real action hopefully starting around Mid Month onwards... 

Yes, i haven't a problem per se with people who just use the extended ensembles H500 charts and don't bother with the strat or teleconnections, but if you don't use them, you can't have an informed opinion wrt monthly and beyond forecasting, those same people then go on to tell us winters over in a concealed sort of way by 'clocks ticking' type statements, well if they don't believe in TC's and LRF's, how an earth can they tell us what will happen definitively beyond week 2 and that it wont be cold.

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Not seeing anything of  *real* interest on the models at then moment. Some transient areas of high pressure bringing brief Northerly incursions through until mid January, temperatures generally below average as a result which is a start but not the snowmaggedon many are hoping for. 

The latest EC46 is interested towards the end of January/Early February though we've seen that model produce stellar charts at weeks 3/4 several times so far this winter only for them not to materialise, starting to wonder whether it has a slight blocking bias at those lead times. 

Clusters.thumb.png.92d4d3af37e2237644474f67477426e6.pngClust2.thumb.png.97706cfa3041c016358496b91b440fe0.png

Clusters not terrible, low pressure to the East and high pressure to the West in some form on all of them, they seem to be broken towards the extended range part of the run. Extended EPS typically following along those lines, a trough broadly in the Scandi/Siberia region. 

So, below average for the foreseeable it'd seem though no *real* signs of HLB at this stage. We're left somewhat in no mans land, the waiting continues.. 

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

You could point to the arctic high sat just the other side of the pole as a fast direct repsonse ......

It could be argued that without the quick response of that high appearing and pushing the vortices further to our side, the upcoming amplified ridge could have maintained latitude and not been overrun by the systems rushing west to east in repsonse to the tpv segments exchanging heights between them ..... or that the ssw has interfered with the MJO or that had we just maintained a displaced Asian spv without a split following, then the trop/strat disconnect that had existed to that point would have allowed a much more wintry evolution for the first half jan via height rises to out west......... of course I wouldn’t dare ask such questions as the neersayers seem to be full of beans anyway! 

Absolutely agree. I should have said that the early dynamics of the SSW have not been conducive to HLBs that will affect the uk but now we have a chance for the latter part of the month

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Quite a few ENS with better breaks in the PV, this one of the better ones at day 10. I still think week starting 14th could be better than currently showing. 

03FEF81C-28CA-4E45-8D85-799389B0E6F2.png

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30 minutes ago, Snowjokes92 said:

 my concern is how none of the models are showing hardly any impact to the polar vortex even into the future. 

Isn't this good news?  😉

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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Quite a few ENS with better breaks in the PV, this one of the better ones at day 10. I still think week starting 14th could be better than currently showing. 

03FEF81C-28CA-4E45-8D85-799389B0E6F2.png

Yes - they're a stonker - slight upgrade even on the 0z suite if anything,

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Quite a few ENS with better breaks in the PV, this one of the better ones at day 10. I still think week starting 14th could be better than currently showing. 

03FEF81C-28CA-4E45-8D85-799389B0E6F2.png

Trouble is, it’s always at this range and then as it gets closer we never seem to be able to get sufficient traction north, I know people will say it was always ‘mid month’ onwards and all that warble but realistically we are still chasing the feather at day 10, we have been for like a week now.

i know I always go on about that lobe of death but whilst it’s still there the pattern is always likely to flatten, topplers look the favourite IMO, good for some but bad for many

 

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3 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Why are the 0z runs milder than the 6z/12z runs in the last couple of days ?

I mentioned the same thing time and time again but you wont get a proper answer cos no one is sure why it happens!

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10 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Absolutely agree. I should have said that the early dynamics of the SSW have not been conducive to HLBs that will affect the uk but now we have a chance for the latter part of the month

The longevity of the reversal plays right into that scenario.

Question is will the length of this episode have a major impact on length of winter ad so on?

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

I mentioned the same thing time and time again but you wont get a proper answer cos no one is sure why it happens!

Has to be a data issue, as the software run is exactly the same, i can't think of any other reasoning.

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