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phil nw.

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

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8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Is it just me or do others feel a bit underwhelmed by the effects of the SSW. In any winter we would expect the chances of cold zonality and small wedges of HP to our NW allowing for southerly tracking lows. I was hoping for some proper blocking over Greenland ...perhaps in feb lol. 

Would highly recommend reading Nick F’s post on the previous page. Will give us all some perspective. 

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Quite, Blue doesn't sound as enthusiastic as last evening ..

I'm still optimistic but i would be lying if i didnt say we are fast approaching crunch time for mid Jan insofar as concrete signs of that horrid low anomaly to the NW 'doing one', so to speak..

Crucial couple of days incoming..

nope - nothing really changed ....the transition from cool zonal to cold troughy looks a little less cold this morning and the ec strat looks a little different but steady as she goes remains the outlook .....

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Posted (edited)

4/1 shot then BA. Don’t think you’ll be backing that horse! 

In my simple little mind here’s how things are happening in relation to the SSW. 

1st SSWE has put the PV on the canvas and the ref has stopped the fight!

2nd Warming event has gone MMA on his ass and is going to retire him!

We will benefit imho because of the second warming event, hence last third of Jan. this however doesn’t rule out cold shots between now and then. 

I am absolutely happy for anyone to educate me if I’m wrong! I love to learn! 

From where I’m sitting, nothing’s changed!

Please now carry on with technical discussion 😆

 

Edited by karlos1983

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Posted (edited)

This forum sure loves it's metaphors *see above* and they drive me nuts, mind you when in Rome.... so here goes.

We have our hole cards, just waiting for the flop.

 

*cringes as he gets his coat*

Edited by Skyraker

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Och well. After a few days' teasing, the GFS seems to have finally given-in to its all-pervasive eastward bias, and reduced mid-week's snow chances down to almost nothing...What will the weather do, though?

image.thumb.png.dca2541fa9ecf6132550b9e1b13bc6e0.png

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Waking up to a sense of pessimism on the forum after what seemed to be a day of growing optimism yesterday.

To be honest last winter was all about one week in late Feb really and the four previous winters were terrible! Yet on every single one of them there were times of growing excitement (in early December last winter) where trends or background signals were pointing towards winter scenes of wonder.

My feeling for this reason is that I should constantly remind myself that heights of optimism in here are frequently only topplers and no more than a 30% chance should ever be attributed to success in verification.

Just so hard to get the right synoptics to fall into place for us, but I can't live without the hope and the knowledge that the bullseye will be all the sweeter for it!

I remain eternally grateful to those on here who keep providing me with that hope, as well as the ones who warn of the dangers to promised winter nirvanas!

C'mon Winter 2018/19... we can still do this!!

 

 

 

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The 06z is another poor run with the pv actually gaining strength and us stuck under Bartlett type weather for what seems like an eternity.

Worth keeping in mind the pro's did say that the Atlantic would rev up before any blocking came to the fore. With such favourable background conditions the charts spewed out are very disappointing 

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6Z looking better to me at 192..

Hopefully a cleaner ridge in the North Atlantic..

 

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And once again nothing to get excited about on the 06z!!total garbage being spewed out considering what is going on high above!!dunno how many days ive gone without sunshine or a frost here now!!there is literally nothing to say about this winter!!last winter was the winter of sliders!this winter is the winter of boredom and time is ticking away fast!!

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

6Z looking better to me at 192..

Hopefully a cleaner ridge in the North Atlantic..

 

Yup and as they come closer they will all just flatten out!!its been the story of the winter so far no matter what the ensembles show in fi!!its ridiculous!!

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Just now, shaky said:

And once again nothing to get excited about on the 06z!!total garbage being spewed out considering what is going on high above!!dunno how many days ive gone without sunshine or a frost here now!!there is literally nothing to say about this winter!!last winter was the winter of sliders!this winter is the winter of boredom and time is ticking away fast!!

I've gone about 10 days now without any sunshine here in West Birmingham. This time of year is hard enough with the short daylight hours, but factoring in endless grey skies - it's almost unbearable. 

The models are boring, there might be some interest in the ensembles but it really is look drab for the time being. 

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As always, patience is the key. Pay attention to what posters such as GP, Chio, and Nick are saying. Repeatedly. 

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In recent years there seems to have been a much greater understanding of warming events and their scope for impacts on climate.

However, when an event is in the pipeline rightly or wrongly I garner that many people ( tabloid journalists,many weather enthusiasts here and elsewhere) assume it means this little island of ours will be plunged into a colder spell at the very least.

We know things played out in our favour at the end of February 2018, however I can think of a few warming events that have not delivered to our tiny island in recent years.

Could there be Weather forum members in places like Denmark right now that are using the same evidence we have at our disposal to think this current cycle of warming ' is further down the line'  than many people keen on an arctic incursion for the UK would hope,as  areas just to our East and South are plunged into the depths of winter?

In short, are the effects of this most recent SSW well under way at 'ground level' in areas very close to home on a global scale?

Does an SSW weather event really mean that HP will definatly set up shop in a position to favour the UK for snow?

I just feel it has to be made clear,SSW does not garuntee cold/ snow for our island, although does increase the possibility.

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Posted (edited)

I wonder what’s happened for the sudden strengthening of the vortex, this is is at day 10, judging by the latest runs the best we can possibly hope for is cold mobility.

7349A2B3-9DAC-4986-93FD-F0122D9A231B.png

Edited by Weathizard

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GFS day 12 - looks zonal but there is a significant wedge there...

image.thumb.png.6795d3805dddeaf260c9a237980f93c2.png

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11 minutes ago, PerfectStorm said:

I've gone about 10 days now without any sunshine here in West Birmingham. This time of year is hard enough with the short daylight hours, but factoring in endless grey skies - it's almost unbearable. 

The models are boring, there might be some interest in the ensembles but it really is look drab for the time being. 

Yup last year already by now i had a couple of meaning full snowfalls!!and thats with background signals know where near as good as what they are now!!this year its hard to even get a frost lol!!

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes , better GFS 6z...

Cold zonal ..

Possible scandy high gap appearing 

D0845021-3995-4041-9EBB-AEFEE34F7DED.png

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Seems like the better the background signals getter the stronger the polar vortex gets. If the output is anything close to right, anywhere apart from northern hills isn't getting snow until February. It looked so good a couple days ago...

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

image.thumb.png.3c24733dc9b8fcc9f60f4bdb9aec1c59.png

Beautiful..

Yes but at +336. Dream on...

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12 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Exactly Nick. A brief period of a more mobile Atlantic squashing any Amplification attempts is what should be expected for the time being upto day 10. There should be more significant movements to better FI blocking scenarios which should increasingly improve as we go through next week. I’m looking forward to it - next two weeks should be a fun time to model watch.

Yes - everything unfolding exactly as expected, just a little later, cold zonal leading to Greenland heights leading to Scandi high early feb always has been my expectation, unless there has been a massive downgrade in the eps, everything looking the same as yesterday, cracking GEFS suite and this GFS 6z op looks conducive to big snow events at the end.

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