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phil nw.

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, karyo said:

Here is the current picture in Thessaloniki, Greece right next to the sea. 

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/ellada/makedonia/thessaloniki/plateia-aristotelous.html

And whilst we are waiting for our snow...

https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/italia/calabria/vibo-valentia/capo-vaticano.html

 

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Not a bad fax chart for the south east contingent. Much better ecm ext ens tonight. Let's hope that trend continues tomorrow. 

fax120s.gif

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1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

Nice Mean 👌

C Southern England 

FF8A9D5D-15B1-448E-B1D9-B9C08BDCED83.thumb.gif.960bc70f235a607ea876f1be793f8b0f.gif

Cracking set of ENS 

Why banter England all or most of the time in here , I am sure we all live in the UK , people like many who live in Wales  Scotland and Northern Ireland would like to know how it's going to look for the province , let's all be nice and share instead of being I LIVE in England .❤Share the love please .

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Catching up with developments over the course of the evening.

I must confess, disregarding low resolution FI, I'm more excited at the moment about what I'm led to believe the models will show rather than what they actually do show,

Not negative at all, just cautious and I would love the likes of @johnholmes to be getting on board before I really do get excited!

 

Regarding the Ian Brown WTF moment.... it was in relation to the UKMO 12z 15/01/13 - 144 undercut. 

 

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So ICON & to a certain extent the UKMO really alligning that cold N/South into Scandi now, a big change over night.

Sort of looks like this now-( the forecast last night )

34CB538E-271E-4F3D-9EA6-EA9567B11F14.thumb.jpeg.81b3fa6b2c9c347974129d74bb1c2613.jpeg2BC0D32B-48B3-4E65-B6DC-377446A6E208.thumb.png.0426427a55a0fd2383119bd7fe10e96f.png

 

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Posted (edited)

Gfs 00z are a bit of a step bk not as much amplification wich also means the low never really gets into Westen europe leaving us with our Azores slug.

 

h500slp(2).png

h500slp(3).thumb.png.ff4da7d8ec57e09236d28a64e54e8f96.png

Please SSW save us from this damm slug.

Edited by snowangel32

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Although FI looks pretty tasty bringing snow country wide, hate to say it but it has potential lol.

h500slp(4).thumb.png.14acc7c958b98cfcb9ff45774c23721c.png

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Posted (edited)

15th Jan still looks like the first date of a real decent PM blast, not talking widespread snow but the North and hills look good. Still no sign of a major PV breakdown but some v cold options in the GEFS from mid month.

Severe cold chances may not be till later month but from the 15th there could well be some decent snow events - kind of covered off in the NETO long range. 

Edited by Ali1977

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Same old problem for GFS- cannot resolve energy seperation

The cold ENS members are not phasing the lows

areas to watch out for

D53C8167-F4BF-4069-A9C5-A70AF333C838.thumb.jpeg.0202eb3dad39a70429ed597cf57b3fcc.jpeg

^^^ Thismeans we end up with a very cold Northerly-

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Genuinely frustrating for UK weather fans currently. UKMO shows cold well entrenched into Central and South-East Europe and pushing into the med and as far as France at times. Meanwhile stubborn high pressure and warmer uppers continue to plague the UK apart from a brief toppling interlude. I still feel mid-month will be the time. Bucketing down with snow here at the moment. A couple of webcam shots to enjoy. 

UE96-21.gif

UE144-21 (11).gif

1532708951-warsaw-rzeczpospolita.jpg

1531326131-warsaw.jpg

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Posted (edited)

Cold Northerly at 192, and looks like being followed up with a cold PM flow. Scottish ski resorts will be relishing charts like these. 

5E35C65F-0EEA-4740-ACE6-712C734DA1D2.png

North England/North Wales should do ok with this, above 500 feet could get some decent falls if we get -6/-8 uppers.

Edited by Ali1977

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Look at the arctic high, getting stronger with each day that goes by. Up to 1040 now!!!B8710D27-C2EA-49CB-B0E1-37A0E5EA65C9.thumb.png.5e2c1e4145c7b597f0734546410a6f53.png

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Posted (edited)

Well if GFS is anything to go by Europe is going to have a massive thaw mid to end of next week... Before that though more cold..

unfortunately after yesterdays upgrades short term they have all backed tracked this morning including ECM

image.thumb.png.1959cd5e2d548c23b7e0ddc85a7b0f99.png 

EDIT: ECM keeps the colder air over EU much better slight warm up but nothing like the goofus...

Still think end of Month.. Next week we should start to see more juicy charts.. Anything before then is a bonus!

 

Edited by Surrey

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ECM finishes with an impressive 1050 high over the Artic.

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Posted (edited)

This looks like a great chart, some proper cold primed from the North with a building Arctic hp and the PV heading to our NE.

F16A59BA-F6F7-472A-B9C5-BD602B3D5F78.png

Will be an interesting EPS suite from the 15th I hope.

Edited by Ali1977

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3 minutes ago, Blizzardof82 said:

ECM finishes with an impressive 1050 high over the Artic.

Yet zonal weather for us 😭

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2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Yet zonal weather for us 😭

This isn’t zonal 

9E7CB20C-8E04-4D21-85CF-E79D087DDB1D.png

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Perhaps I need to find my rose tinted glasses. The day 10 ecm chart looks a pretty standard January chart to me, a fast moving Atlantic pattern. Cold the further north you go with Scotland and hilly northern areas getting a real taste of Winter but little interest for southern areas....pretty much backing up the Mets thoughts for mid month...wet, windy with snow up north.

ECMOPEU00_240_1-7.png

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3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

This looks like a great chart, some proper cold primed from the North with a building Arctic hp and the PV heading to our NE.

F16A59BA-F6F7-472A-B9C5-BD602B3D5F78.png

Will be an interesting EPS suite from the 15th I hope.

Looks at the heart of the vortex being ripped out. It does seem to be gearing up for lift off around the 18th. Hopefully our patience will be rewarded.

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3 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Yet zonal weather for us 😭

That wont be mild zonal thats for sure.

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The Met seem to be about 4 steps ahead of us at the moment. They said the atlantic would come to life and it's doing exactly that. There isn't the faintest sign of Northern blocking as of yet.

Yes cold zonal at times.....It is January afterall

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