Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
phil nw.

The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

Message added by phil nw.

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, chris55 said:

It’s called a ‘wedge’ lol

But in all seriousness, to anyone who’s relatively new to model watching, looking for the nivara charts with the 1060 Greenland high or a massive Scandinavia high is all well and good, and obviously thats our ultimate goal, but sometimes a well placed wedge of heights can deliver the goods (as above). 

Indeed, well it did in Jan 2013 for a week or so, and there are similarities with this year's set up - a perfectly plausible evolution from the FV3 on this run.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T144:

image.thumb.jpg.4dff31315b8183d15ba36fb11f6c3708.jpg

We know this first ridge will topple, no way energy going under that - on any model - but I like the way the NH profile as a whole is shaping up on this run, Arctic high evident, interesting upstream, and all the purples getting shoved over to the eastern side.  And the SSW effects still to come (well except the Arctic high which is probably SSW related)...

Was looking promising at 144 but unfortunately it rolls over (topples) on this run. However this is a timescale to keep an eye on IMO, subsequent runs could well build that ridge up into Iceland.

D66CE0A3-4204-420D-99B9-65A72947489A.thumb.png.ddeede910955453e7507a2487245fc05.pngA21B4502-C00A-4250-89F2-03DF8FA55959.thumb.png.77bba675e9381f6acee3ba09e50e1cee.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

ECM to progressive again tonight at 168 *but* look at how much more amplified it is V the 192 last night 

- NB no zonal flow over Scandi - deep cold now heading SE

- Arctic High +5MB Higher today

1 more day of backtracking will see more energy going SE....

12z today first

1EC98672-52B1-4E33-BF05-1F9C2569C0E7.thumb.png.5bf7d933cae2479a2bd3ccc643e1960b.pngDCC7372B-ABE6-4ADA-8A55-059D66BA2789.thumb.png.f86b826b8b9d94580ad3d333ac32ba7f.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Last winter I had to wait till the end of Feb for my first decent  snowfall  for a couple of years ,if I see snow next week followed by more northerly blasts that will be fantastic in my opinion and if we then get a couple of weeks after northeasterlies ill snap your arms off for that 

I'm very confident we er going to get the goods we want but it's still 7 to 10 days away and I can wait can you?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM to progressive again tonight at 168 *but* look at how much more amplified it is V the 192 last night 

- NB no zonal flow over Scandi - deep cold now heading SE

- Arctic High +5MB Higher today

1 more day of backtracking will see more energy going SE....

12z today first

1EC98672-52B1-4E33-BF05-1F9C2569C0E7.thumb.png.5bf7d933cae2479a2bd3ccc643e1960b.pngDCC7372B-ABE6-4ADA-8A55-059D66BA2789.thumb.png.f86b826b8b9d94580ad3d333ac32ba7f.png

TBF Steve i think the 0z is better than the 12z though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Eastnorthwest said:

Last winter I had to wait till the end of Feb for my first decent  snowfall  for a couple of years ,if I see snow next week followed by more northerly blasts that will be fantastic in my opinion and if we then get a couple of weeks after northeasterlies ill snap your arms off for that 

I'm very confident we er going to get the goods we want but it's still 7 to 10 days away and I can wait can you?   

No can’t wait to all 5 posts 🤣🤣 edit 7 posts😩😩

Edited by That ECM

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Is it me or I am just looking at different charts ? All I'm seeing is a topper ? Colder for like a few days ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking better at 192. Could 216 be a stonker??

ECMOPEU12_192_1.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Eastnorthwest said:

Last winter I had to wait till the end of Feb for my first decent  snowfall  for a couple of years ,if I see snow next week followed by more northerly blasts that will be fantastic in my opinion and if we then get a couple of weeks after northeasterlies ill snap your arms off for that 

I'm very confident we er going to get the goods we want but it's still 7 to 10 days away and I can wait can you 

must be very confident! assume you are in the east, or the north or the west? take it you're not in the south

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Apparently Ian F. is bringing out the "Special Charts" on the local news/weather tonight.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Is it me or I am just looking at different charts ? All I'm seeing is a topper ? Colder for like a few days ?

Initial ridge was always going to topple. It’s what happens after that holds the main interest 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

A bunch of posts have been hidden. Think before you post!
Thanks.

Edited by Mapantz

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
37 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Because all sensible people judge a run on a day 15 now accumulation chart 😂 

I agree. I was being hyperbolic, just highlighting the insipid nature of the GFS op run. The margins to get a snowy outcome in such a synoptic are not worth wasting another 16 days to wait for. Give me the GFSp, though not perfect, is a pattern change for the better, not just relying on a cold high or squeezing some low uppers out of a repeating pattern that has not really worked for us this winter so far?

That is, of course, my preference and just giving my opinion, that the 12z op was rather tame for half a month of weather, it may have been fine for others.

The ECM proving yet again to be a paradigm of inconsistency, this 12z run being technically determined as "sucks":

D10 - 1632572182_ECH1-240(1).thumb.gif.ee6480495ddcfc34d03332ca51e4c621.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Looking at the start profile, Steve, I think that we will have to wait past day 10 to allow the upper influence to diminish.. only then will we see a proper HLB develop. Otherwise colder than average with the usual toppling limited snow risks. Should start to see some proper winter charts next week rather than the flirting now

Is this the split with 3 vortexes starting to show on the ecm? TIA

F4126CCB-5D1D-47BA-A9AE-730A20830A12.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The bore fest still continues. 

0BCE3A8B-D217-4086-9A94-652781E2363B.thumb.png.0613d93758218f0de1a3b1b2f3704b36.png

Just waiting around for the strat to influence the trop. 

The amount of patience that that people are showing deserves to be rewarded with fab charts 20th Jan onwards. 

Christmas Amazon vouchers still on the fireplace,  🛷 or 👕 ????. 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, IDO said:

I agree. I was being hyperbolic, just highlighting the insipid nature of the GFS op run. The margins to get a snowy outcome in such a synoptic are not worth wasting another 16 days to wait for. Give me the GFSp, though not perfect, is a pattern change for the better, not just relying on a cold high or squeezing some low uppers out of a repeating pattern that has not really worked for us this winter so far?

That is, of course, my preference and just giving my opinion, that the 12z op was rather tame for half a month of weather, it may have been fine for others.

The ECM proving yet again to be a paradigm of inconsistency, this 12z run being technically determined as "sucks":

D10 - 1632572182_ECH1-240(1).thumb.gif.ee6480495ddcfc34d03332ca51e4c621.gif

Nope - 3 or 4 days later would be an Atlantic ridge up into Greenland. and it could be argued a cold spell of sorts would ensue even before that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Apparently Ian F. is bringing out the "Special Charts" on the local news/weather tonight.

Did he?

 

BFTP

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Is this the split with 3 vortexes starting to show on the ecm? TIA

F4126CCB-5D1D-47BA-A9AE-730A20830A12.png

Early signs perhaps with a long way to go....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Nope - 3 or 4 days later would be an Atlantic ridge up into Greenland. and it could be argued a cold spell of sorts would ensue even before that.

Its all about opinions, but not sure from that D10 chart I can see a ridge rise to Greenland. The Atlantic high is clearly traversing east with a kink (wedge) following to its north, no WAA there. 

But I like your optimism!

Meanwhile, the GEFS is finally, albeit slowly,  getting interesting:

gens_panel_wle5.png

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, IDO said:

Its all about opinions, but not sure from that D10 chart I can see a ridge rise to Greenland. The Atlantic high is clearly traversing east with a kink (wedge) following to its north, no WAA there. 

But I like your optimism!

Meanwhile, the GEFS is finally, albeit slowly,  getting interesting:

gens_panel_wle5.png

 

Its the angle i like, the steeper the NW / N - S tilt as opposed to W-E, the greater the risk of mid atlantic / S Greenland ridging, even though it may not look like it at the time, plus the upstream pattern, there's no annoying shortwaves in the direct line of fire although admittedly they can pop up at shorter range.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, MattStoke said:

Please, Carinthian. Could you spare me a flake? 😭

I wish I could Matt. Its does seem an unfair distribution of the lovely flakes. A bleak Mid-winter in the 5 towns with hardly a snowflake to be seen. Maybe, you will see some soon. None so far here out in Vancouver, just cloud and days of rain pouring in from the Pacific.

C

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...