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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I don’t think there’s any doubt we will get our downwelling, albeit not as quickly as we all hoped! 

Any downwelling is better than nothing Karlos?

Edited by Allseasons-si
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You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

Posted Images

Yet again the large Arctic Highs are in the ascendancy by D15 tonight, according to the ECM ensembles. 

Bound to be a split in the TPV shortly after, but in which direction? 

I'd put odds of a very cold spell between 20th and 30th January at around 40% as things stand now (that's 60% chance of not happening of course ?

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7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

7th Jan is important and that LP that develops and loops over and down the eastern flank of the HP.  The nearer the UK that plunges SSE the better the loop up behind of the HP.  That paves the way for very decent cold to embed before the reload.  Finally we are up and running

 

BFTP

Don't you mean SSW BFTP:spiteful:

SSW LOL

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Well the ensembles show a decent chance of snow next week in the east at any rate. Maybe not huge amounts but enough to turn it white maybe.:oldsmile:

 

London

Norwich

Dover

Newcastle

graphe_ens3-1.gif

graphe_ens3-2.gif

graphe_ens3-3.gif

graphe_ens3-4.gif

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22 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

But all that beautiful clear Atlantic air...

9Vs.gif

I'm just sayin, it's on offer is all...

Please stop you're reminding of those physcos in that new movie Bird Box who convince people that the monster is beautiful when it isn't!?

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19 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Any news on 18 Z GEFS- looking for signs of Atlantic ridging later on..

Here you go NWS,the control is a peach?

gensnh-0-1-300.thumb.png.e80c297c8d72dc9489e11590f6fd079a.png

and a reload later on.

gensnh-0-1-360.thumb.png.c8dce6a71bbd33e3f64eeba60d4a67a5.png

Edited by Allseasons-si
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1 minute ago, snowray said:

Its -3c in many places already tonight, freezing fog tomorrow morning with max temps of 2 or 3c, what on earth are they talking about not cold? 

Maybe they also believe in faux cold as in -3 on ground with high upper air temps is not real cold and until we get -3 at surface with -12 uppers only then it is cold???

Any how hopefully more upgr ades to come in morning runs 

 

 

 

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15 minutes ago, snowray said:

Well the ensembles show a decent chance of snow next week in the east at any rate. Maybe not huge amounts but enough to turn it white maybe.:oldsmile:

 

London

Norwich

Dover

Newcastle

graphe_ens3-1.gif

graphe_ens3-2.gif

graphe_ens3-3.gif

graphe_ens3-4.gif

Now that is an upgrade,mean lower than -5,if we get that continental feed......

BOOM.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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3 minutes ago, Bottled Snow said:

Maybe they also believe in faux cold as in -3 on ground with high upper air temps is not real cold and until we get -3 at surface with -12 uppers only then it is cold???

Any how hopefully more upgr ades to come in morning runs 

 

 

 

It's just that their fav words in the forecast are "At least its going to be mild" right at the end, it like a form of brain washing if you ask me!:oldlaugh:

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In our hunt for the cold I give you this 2m temp anomaly map. Where is all that cold ? (at the poles I know ?) Record high daily temp for Alice springs Australia 47 deg C WOW! (I know its there summer but I bet those guys are on the hunt for some cold!) Things looking good for the next 7 days folks, majority of trend looking decent to say the least ?

446097291_ScreenShot2019-01-03at23_43_48.thumb.png.c33714304ffec511e60fea2530552155.png

 

Screen Shot 2019-01-03 at 23.48.17.png

Screen Shot 2019-01-03 at 23.58.04.png

Screen Shot 2019-01-03 at 23.58.12.png

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23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Just seen something outside my window, not sure what it is, mist, oh no, wait a minute, its Guy's brother's January forecast going up in smoke.

image.thumb.png.7e53bd4e6f6b66a4719b57ce7a36eabf.png

Yes,just seen Chris rea walk past my window,i thought he was driving home for Christmas lol

a nice dip in 850s there on the 9th,just need that mild sector afterwards to vanish and all will be rosey?

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3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Have we turned a corner in the hunt for cold tonight?

Still work to do and i think if it happens it will be late  (ish) Jan, but a step in the right direction, if some of the recent runs come to fruition, you would actually see snow before me, however, i think they might be on the optimistic side.

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Here come the downgrades. Icon is crud compared to its previous few excellent runs, what's in store for gfs soon. Winter 2018/19 still waiting for lift-off?

UKMO no good either, too flat, gosh how hard is it to get decent cold in the uk?

Edited by SLEETY
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