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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Spring Weather Discussion

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phil nw.
Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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shaky Veteran

shaky

Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
Posted

Upgardes all around this evening!!and ukmo finally starting to come around!!the fact it changes early on is good for us aswell!!hopefully more upgrades on ecm and also tomorrow 00z runs!!

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Maybe I'm getting too old for all this, but all I'm seeing is a half decent ridge which will sink over the Uk again. There is still too much energy over the top of the ridge and the core heights are not really pushing North enough.

Look at the new heights building into Greeny and NE Canada, will reforge the first Northerly I reckon 

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, shaky said:

Upgardes all around this evening!!and ukmo finally starting to come around!!the fact it changes early on is good for us aswell!!hopefully more upgrades on ecm and also tomorrow 00z runs!!

And Exeter , this Northerly is only next week and no mention of it. 

Edited by Ali1977
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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

Good GFS so far with sharper trough bringing in the colder uppers from the north a la ICON

gfsnh-0-114.png?12gfsnh-1-114.png?12

Let's see if it can go on to give us a better easterly feed and  Atlantic ridge into Greenland

 

 

Edited by Mucka
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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted

I rather like the UKMO 144h. 

UN144-21.gif

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

Also GFS more amplified upstream than 06z so fingers crossed for that Greenalnd ridge

gfsnh-0-132.png?12gfsnh-0-138.png?6

Edited by Mucka
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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted

Gfs has seen the bunny and is out chasing the cold Will it continue or tire as the run progresses? Northerly anyone

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted (edited)

Look how much further West  the trough has ended up in Europe from 00z to 12z!!

gfs-0-138.png?12gfs-0-150.png

Edited by Mucka
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted (edited)

What is going on here, this is a great chart and only at 144

DB82D93E-426F-4129-8491-62D013E407B5.png

Edited by Ali1977
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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

Looks like rain/sleets in eastern coastal areas but snow inland next Wednesday. Very cold day.:cold:

gfseu-0-138.png

gfseu-1-138.png

gfseu-2-138.png

gfseu-2-144.png

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Very juicey outs so far this evening...the gfs will look to tap into the mass polar cold now also...and with given synoptic thus far...its a probable outcome...good stuff.

gfsnh-0-144.png

Edited by tight isobar
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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, carinthian said:

Morning all in the UK. Not sure if this chart from ICON at 180t comes to fruition but all cold lovers would aspire this to be the case. Everything perfect, high orientation right to the North of British Isles, Polar vortex over White Sea, Mid Atlantic trough digging SE and 300mb jet looping well north in almost omega formation and most importantly lower heights established over Europe.  Its just one scenario but looks the best of this mornings models. Maybe ECM to follow with a different colder route<

C

ICOOPNH00_180_1.png

Nice run on the latest UKMO. I can see potential here for some cold. Falling heights pushing SW into Southern Europe. Polar vortex just above the White Sea and a hint of Mid Atlantic trough to dig SE . Things could now start to happen at a pace. Latest GFS also now developing a potential for cold to follow the low that provides the injection of cold a bit further south and hence more East of North in the flow.

 C

UN144-21.gif.78fe49854967590c66cac37e275d9b3f.gif

Edited by carinthian
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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted

Come now peeps. You should have been expecting this. The strat warming has been causing the models to flip flop like a freshly caught fish. More twists and turns to come no doubt. But hopefully trending to cold. As I've said before, hoping it all pushes west to the UK. Room for improvement on this chart, sure. But hopefully ECM will also be on board and all output will trend colder. 

gfs-0-156.png

gfs-1-156.png

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Popular Post
Posted

The cold begining to spill like the drunken village idiot out of the pub doors!!!!

gfsnh-1-156.png

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bradymk Rising Star

bradymk

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunder & Lightning, Thundersnow, Storms, Heatwave
  • Location: Cardiff, Wales
Posted

Quite a big change so far. Lets hope the trend continues. I would say GFS would upgrade those uppers too if it does come closer to fruition. Exciting times.

Going off past experience too, we tend to always get a slight flip back the other way so don't panic too much if one run is less amplified. Compared to a few days ago, we definitely can not complain.

It is a promising sign though to see these upgrades coming in the medium term as well, only 5 or so days out. Almost always a good sign imo.

 

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

GEM gets close in FI but no cigar

gemnh-0-204.png?12

 

Gotta love how GFS demolishes the upstream ridge

gfsnh-0-120.png?12gfsnh-0-162.png?12

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carinthian Maestro

carinthian

Posted
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Ski Amade / Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
Posted
5 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Nice run on the latest UKMO. I can see potential here for some cold. Falling heights pushing SW into Southern Europe. Polar vortex just above the White Sea and a hint of Mid Atlantic trough to dig SE . Things could now start to happen at a pace. Latest GFS also now developing a potential for cold to follow the low that provides the injection of cold a bit further south and hence more East of North in the flow.

 C

UN144-21.gif.78fe49854967590c66cac37e275d9b3f.gif

Latest GFS also moving at a pace and brings the threat of snow for SE Britain by this time next week.

C

gfs-3-144.png

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
11 minutes ago, warrenb said:

GFS is incoming easterly, things looking up, as said above Meto looking tasty too.

There is no Easterly incoming from this first ridge. The ridge will sink/topple then we wait for the second attempt to see whether we can get the ridge far enough North. Granted, the wintryness showing is a bonus though...

image.thumb.png.0a052daca1c7b33e17ef167b39a70aab.png

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GEM gets close in FI but no cigar

gemnh-0-204.png?12

 

Gotta love how GFS demolishes the upstream ridge

gfsnh-0-120.png?12gfsnh-0-162.png?12

Surely that is just a mid Atlantic high? So its going to topple anyway..

Key is the digging south of the trough ..

Either way, im sure i'm not the only one thinking Exeter will have to re write their further outlook tomorrow because there is absolutely no sign of this wet stormy spell 2nd week of Jan they are referencing..

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