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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


Message added by phil nw.

 

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

Message added by Paul

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3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

All I want to see is consistency in back to back runs - up to 10 days anyway. So if the 12z follows the 6z we’ll have a happy forum I imagine. 

With the associated difficulties in handling the SSW I wouldn’t hold your breath, could be another week before output settles down 

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You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

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12 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

It’s actually hilarious at times ? I’m not sure how people manage with more serious life issues if a weather pattern brings them up and down so quickly! ?

Don't get me wrong I want cold weather as much as anyone on this thread, but taking each model output as godpel is actual Madness and will send one crazy ?

Looking forward to the 12z, this is a very interesting period of model watching! Also the EC monthly updates this evening, could be quite telling as things have progressed somewhat since Monday up top. 

EDIT: @PerfectStorm good point well made ? I can’t really argue with that!

Think we need to pin this at the top of every page lol, dosnt matter how many times this gets said you still get the same ones saying upgrade, oh dear this don’t look good. Boom. It’s nailed or nails in coffin, winter is over ?? think we need to stay inside 144 as anything after that is pure f1 ? sorry I ment fi 

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Clusters finally updated. Here's D12

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019010300_288.

Looks very mixed. I really don't think the ensembles have a handle on the Atlantic sector around mid-month. Compare with the last four runs for this timescale:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019010100_336.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019010112_324.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019010200_312.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019010212_300.

The one thing that does keep coming up, though, is stronger troughing than normal to our east. That would ensure we're never far away from a cold northerly plunge. All that's needed is good Atlantic amplification at the right time in the cycle. Certainly not miles off.

 

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50 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The latest gefs bc run is much less amplified than recent output and certainly has moved towards the recent ec output - a coming together of sorts but closer to ec amplitude..... doesn’t bode well considering the high amp 7 was good for us 

be interesting to see how/if  the gefs week 2 anomoly changes now ....

Due to the SSW cooling the tropical stratosphere, the amplification should prove plenty sufficient to do what we need, regardless of what the RMM plots show - those will be confused by some Rossby wave interaction in the week ahead. That's what's causing the strange looping around in the plots. In any case, we have the surging AAM and GWO movement through P5-P6 working in favour of next week's developments so that should provide some entertainment while we wait for the subsequent SSW-MJO-GWO interactions to be sorted out.

With respect to which - ECM/EPS' traversal toward P3/4 contradicts theoretical expectation so I'm expecting EPS to be a bit behind on developments for the 2nd half of the month. Big assumptions involved I know... it's never easy!

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37 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Amazing how quick this forum changes from cold nailed on then it’s  massive downgrade,huge setback,not looking so good now ,then back to cold nailed again etc.People who read the forum but have no knowledge of the weather must be totally confused by all this.

I thought we were here to discuss the model runs not provide an impartial forecast for the public. There are plenty of other places for people to get that if they want it.

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

This is getting ridiculous now!!the icon upgrades the atlantic ridge big time!!surely just surely gfs and especially ukmo gota upgrade now!!

If only it was that simple lol.

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35 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Amazing how quick this forum changes from cold nailed on then it’s  massive downgrade,huge setback,not looking so good now ,then back to cold nailed again etc.People who read the forum but have no knowledge of the weather must be totally confused by all this.

I am a relative newcomer and this forum has taught me a lot. However, I have also learned that the vagaries of the weather forecasting can be likened to baking a fruit cake: we know the ingredients, understand the chemical interrelationships and have a broad grasp of the physics and motion dynamics.  Through deep understanding of all elements involved it should theoretically be possible to calculate the exact locations of all the raisins in the end result. And yet oddly, it seems simultaneously impossible to do so. ?

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Don't think these have been posted yet today. ECM Op 850's sitting on or above the mean initially then tracking toward the colder end of the suite after Jan 8th. Be interesting to see whether tonight's ensemble trend colder still as indicated by GFS/ICON so far today. Cool, cold, or winter proper? Still much to be decided I feel.

Screen Shot 2019-01-03 at 15.19.52.png

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iconnh-0-165.png?03-00 iconnh-0-153.png?03-12

A stronger and more helpfully-positioned Arctic High too. Aside from that it's become a faster, slightly more potent version of the 00z in our sector.

Cached thumbnails being a pain again - click to be sure of seeing the right chart.

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13 minutes ago, shaky said:

This is getting ridiculous now!!the icon upgrades the atlantic ridge big time!!surely just surely gfs and especially ukmo gota upgrade now!!

6/10 on the shaky exclamiometer .....not bad, definite potential there.....if you hit an 8 on the next post then I reckon cold and snow's a shoe in! ?

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