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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


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Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    FYI

    Great news from michael ventrice in strat thread..

    Very happy with this mornings developments..

    Good to go..

    Was it the tweet about the PV not rebounding??

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    You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

    I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

    My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    34 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

    Snow showers for the north and east with snow flurries further inland I’ll take that!

    Nice to see that even the London mild oasis gets a covering.?

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, fromey said:

    Was it the tweet about the PV not rebounding??

    Yes and thats positive news.. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Yes and thats positive news.. ?

    What does it mean rebounding

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    FYI

    Great news from michael ventrice in strat thread..

    Very happy with this mornings developments..

    Good to go..

    Yes good chart, its a shame Instantweathermaps is down as we cannot compare it with any of the last 3 GFS runs, you can still view the 30mb chart on Netweather though, the 0z GFS looked like a strong dwnwelling from 10mb to 30mb and a very good 384 chart so longjevity as well. indicative of a late Jan Easterly (assuming the downwelling continues).

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
    1 minute ago, snowfish1 said:

    What does it mean rebounding

    If I’m reading it right, it means the PV will not return  back to it strength and position 

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    Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife
    12 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

    Steve (or anyone else)

    Would you think the changes in some of these parts are related to the downwelling from the SSW or more related to the MJO

    Cheers

    What I see is the ongoing effect of what is causing the SSW. Not the after effect of the SSW. That is yet to come Imo. The SSW from earlier this year was official from the 12th of Feb I think and the AO trending largely negative from the 20th of Feb onwards. I think the 10 days to 2 weeks rule of thumb is a good guide for trop effect from SSW. 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    MVH also making very positive noises about significant EAMT ongoing...

    Feeling much more optimistic this morning..

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    48 minutes ago, TheMoonman said:

    Guess who has a week long intensive driving course next week.

    If it's any consolation, I started driving lessons in December 2009... yeah.

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    52 minutes ago, TheMoonman said:

    Guess who has a week long intensive driving course next week.

    As long as you have winter tyres you should be fine, it would be easier really as everyone either stays at home or is super cautious 

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    Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield, West Yorkshire (170m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Huddersfield, West Yorkshire (170m ASL)
    6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    MVH also making very positive noises about significant EAMT ongoing...

    Feeling much more optimistic this morning..

     

    Just what @Bring Back1962-63 Has been eluding to in his past few posts??

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    Well after a widespread frost this morning under clear skies last night and a strong high pressure not moving much, I wasn't expecting to see 11-12C daytime highs here on the south coast of Wales for a while but on Sunday & Monday that's what could happen, turning wetter and breezier too though by then for all with gales possible towards the north 

    image.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

    That is up a mountain-!

     

    But if you want to talk about Italy did you know it holds the world record for the most snow in 24 hours - beating canada & America !

    100 inches in 24 hours lake effect snow.

    A71D82F5-AD7B-498C-914B-11232E10DCA1.thumb.png.1e54f1129861fc644d100ece8d5c9c2a.png

     

     

    Looks like Central/Southern Italy will get one of its regular dumpings in the next 48 hours. 

    The North Sea could be just as good as the Adriatic for that good old lake effect, hopefully our time will come soon.:oldsmile:

    48-780IT.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Methil, Fife
  • Weather Preferences: Baltic
  • Location: Methil, Fife
    7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    MVH also making very positive noises about significant EAMT ongoing...

    Feeling much more optimistic this morning..

     

    Yes, this is the significant factor right now Imo. Its predicted to trend as a -ve MT event in the next week which has the downstream effect of a weaker jet stream causing splits in the flow, more troughs / ridges to appear, more blocking pattern - -ve AO

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    FV3 looking good at T+156, -8 to -9C uppers should even be okay, by the coast...

    image.thumb.png.8727dcc3e873ced5599f5c3b3978dffa.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    EC Ensembles show there is definitely scope for it to be colder next week. Det sitting roughly in the middle of its members & it wasn’t exactly a mild run!

    D836DE8E-90EC-4DC8-BA20-0526D48E4D9B.thumb.gif.aa9005ebdbaab210df43d427b2565303.gif

    Good news is it was certainly no outlier!

    ps why is it the minute a Tweet is put in here my phone goes awol! Bloody annoying! 

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
    2 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

    Well after a widespread frost this morning under clear skies last night and a strong high pressure not moving much, I wasn't expecting to see 11-12C daytime highs here on the south coast of Wales for a while but on Sunday & Monday that's what could happen, turning wetter and breezier too though by then for all with gales possible towards the north 

    image.jpeg

    If the models are anywhere near to being right don’t expect those temperatures to last very long 

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    6Z para looking a cracker....(although the run goes AWOL at 201 hours) and looks plain wrong!

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    Posted
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Study: University of Reading - Home: Keynsham, Bristol 40m ASL
    2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    FV3 looking good at T+156, -8 to -9C uppers should even be okay, by the coast...

    image.thumb.png.8727dcc3e873ced5599f5c3b3978dffa.png

    Unfortunately the high sinks thereafter... ? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    5 minutes ago, snowray said:

    Looks like Central/Southern Italy will get one of its regular dumpings in the next 48 hours. 

    The North Sea could be just as good as the Adriatic for that good old lake effect, hopefully our time will come soon.:oldsmile:

    48-780IT.gif

    Mount Vesuvious right now!

     

    https://www.skylinewebcams.com/en/webcam/italia/campania/napoli/vesuvio.html

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL

    Since the splitting of the energy over the Atlantic now appears to be resolved (more or less), the next hurdle is whether we can get lower heights dropping from Svalbard through Scandinavia and phasing with the low heights over mainland Europe to help prevent the block sinking. The GFS managed this, but the Para hasn't.

    Looking through the GEFS at T138, some of them achieve this and some don't.

    https://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=6&ech=138

     

     

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    Message added by phil nw.

     

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

    Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

    Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

    Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

    Message added by Paul

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