The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

[Seasonality 5,014]

45 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Close but no cigar on the GFS. UKMO pretty woeful. ICON excellent.

But why is the ukmo woeful. Looks OK for the UK at 144h to me. 

[The PIT 9,193]

No joy from either the ECM or GFS. UKMO doesn't go out far enough but overall not bad agreement between the three. Even in lala land ECM and GFS pretty close. CFS shows some cold in feb though so junk the rest of the models they are all wrong. ?

[Seasonality 5,014]

4 minutes ago, The PIT said:

No joy from either the ECM or GFS. UKMO doesn't go out far enough but overall not bad agreement between the three. Even in lala land ECM and GFS pretty close. CFS shows some cold in feb though so junk the rest of the models they are all wrong. ?

But on the positive side, this mornings ecm still isn't out. Maybe it'll be on to something. With the strat splitting as we speak the data being input into the models is likely causing wild swings in output. 

[SMU 80,650]

Happy with the overnight runs thus far-

The ever plucky ICON leads the way in excitement , however FV3 looks close at 168-UKMO slightly less amplified but still cold-

[SMU 80,650]

Note again based on the feedback of the GFS performance the 'overprojection East' is now correcting NW in the mean at 144

18z first 00z second

Indicates a VERY good suite.

Edited January 3, 2019 by Steve Murr

[Roger J Smith 7,449]

GEM was a zonal wasteland, don't look. 

[Ali1977 9,809]

The GEFS are really having a good go at setting up an easterly/ NE’LY at day 8, interesting.

Day 10s

Edited January 3, 2019 by Ali1977

[ArHu3 1,016]

22 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

The GEFS are really having a good go at setting up an easterly/ NE’LY at day 8, interesting.

 

Day 10s

 

 

 

 

 

 

Much bigger uncertainty (it starts earlier in the run but I was too late to catch it) 

 

 

(edit:images don't work, well you just have to take my word for it) 

Edited January 3, 2019 by ArHu3

[brmbrmcar 21]

The FV3 is going for a different sort of Easterly to last run, it looks like.

[Seasonality 5,014]

14 minutes ago, brmbrmcar said:

The FV3 is going for a different sort of Easterly to last run, it looks like.

Lovely chart that. Vortex spilling all over like runny egg yolk. 

[Polar Maritime 16,557]

The GFS-P is certainly showing a Wintry flavour into next week as winds turn Northerly then N/Ely. Widespread snow possible and uppers touching -9c..

[Polar Maritime 16,557]

The GFS-P is a Wintry run throughout.. And not just for the North, Classic battleground chart.

Edited January 3, 2019 by Polar Maritime

[Ali1977 9,809]

P16, now that’s a good channel low.

[Ali1977 9,809]

Why no comments on the ECM - it’s a good one ? 144-168-192 below

Edited January 3, 2019 by Ali1977

[Polar Maritime 16,557]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Why no comments on the ECM - it’s a good one ?

I don't think it has updated yet? Certainly not on Net-Extra anyway.

[ArHu3 1,016]

5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Why no comments on the ECM - it’s a good one ? 144-168-192 below

I can't tell what it is leading to... Seems seasonal but not exceptional to me atm

Edited January 3, 2019 by ArHu3

[Ali1977 9,809]

216 good be good

Northerly and Greeny block inbound at 216

Edited January 3, 2019 by Ali1977

[Roger J Smith 7,449]

I am seeing the ECM updating on meteociel, not outstanding but gets some cold air to southern England days 6-8, high is pushed back some distance southwest by day 6. Not as juicy as those GFS-P maps though. 

[Ali1977 9,809]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

216 good be good

Northerly and Greeny block inbound at 216

Depends how those 2 lows pan out around Greenland, and the shot of WAA between them. It’s all for fun really as way out in LA LA Land.

[mountain shadow 9,824]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Depends how those 2 lows pan out around Greenland, and the shot of WAA between them. It’s all for fun really as way out in LA LA Land.

I think this will be close to what occurs. First ridge will be another failed Easterly attempt but better chance with the second wave/ridge in 10-14 days time.

 

[Roger J Smith 7,449]

Day ten on ECM looks very encouraging, everything starts to line up for a severe cold plunge. We take as they say over here. 

[carinthian 13,976]

Morning all in the UK. Not sure if this chart from ICON at 180t comes to fruition but all cold lovers would aspire this to be the case. Everything perfect, high orientation right to the North of British Isles, Polar vortex over White Sea, Mid Atlantic trough digging SE and 300mb jet looping well north in almost omega formation and most importantly lower heights established over Europe.  Its just one scenario but looks the best of this mornings models. Maybe ECM to follow with a different colder route<

C

Edited January 3, 2019 by carinthian

[KTtom 1,714]

When viewing gfs i was ready to throw in the towel, however once again ICON and ECM looking pretty good as far as trends go...ECM day 10, sub -10 uppers primed to flood south behind the trough passing thru. Core of vortex to the north east slowly edging south and an Atlantic ridge, with a tiny tweak westwards would be perfect..

 

[markw2680 2,758]

If you ask me it’s slowly gathering momentum for a good cold spell, there seems to be more and more good charts appearing now as opposed to poo charts so I’d say that’s definitely a step in the right direction. You never no if we wait a few more days we may actually have a better idea for next week.

my sledge is sat waiting patiently in the shed desperate to get out

[carinthian 13,976]

28 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all in the UK. Not sure if this chart from ICON at 180t comes to fruition but all cold lovers would aspire this to be the case. Everything perfect, high orientation right to the North of British Isles, Polar vortex over White Sea, Mid Atlantic trough digging SE and 300mb jet looping well north in almost omega formation and most importantly lower heights established over Europe.  Its just one scenario but looks the best of this mornings models. Maybe ECM to follow with a different colder route<

C

This picture below to wet your appetites in anticipation. Raging blizzard in parts of Salzburgerland at the moment. The resort is Zauchensee at 1400m and temp -13c.

C