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The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19


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Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    45 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

    Close but no cigar on the GFS. UKMO pretty woeful. ICON excellent.

    But why is the ukmo woeful. Looks OK for the UK at 144h to me. 

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    You have been repeating this for as long as I can remember. And yet again I feel that a response is required.  If we go back 10 years to when I first started the strat threads, you weren’t alone

    I don't think there has really been a signal for snow pre-SSW or immediately after, looking in depth at the drivers, I admire your enthusiasm to put a dampener on the outlook despite the overwhelming

    My goodness, just reading pages back some post mortems of the death of this winter for cold and snow already and are not yet half way through. I can understand the building frustrations in here,

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    No joy from either the ECM or GFS. UKMO doesn't go out far enough but overall not bad agreement between the three. Even in lala land ECM and GFS pretty close. CFS shows some cold in feb though so junk the rest of the models they are all wrong. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    4 minutes ago, The PIT said:

    No joy from either the ECM or GFS. UKMO doesn't go out far enough but overall not bad agreement between the three. Even in lala land ECM and GFS pretty close. CFS shows some cold in feb though so junk the rest of the models they are all wrong. ?

    But on the positive side, this mornings ecm still isn't out. Maybe it'll be on to something. With the strat splitting as we speak the data being input into the models is likely causing wild swings in output. 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Happy with the overnight runs thus far-

    The ever plucky ICON leads the way in excitement , however FV3 looks close at 168-UKMO slightly less amplified but still cold-

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Note again based on the feedback of the GFS performance the 'overprojection East' is now correcting NW in the mean at 144

    18z first 00z second

    Indicates a VERY good suite.

    C3B334E2-0C3B-4956-94D0-75F6A037A3E4.thumb.png.c0b459495228756a1fa5b1bdec16f277.pngAC8BC3C0-9487-46CE-A0E7-57E5759BFCD0.thumb.png.17645a7b744c0ddca3facce33ab30a37.png

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    The GEFS are really having a good go at setting up an easterly/ NE’LY at day 8, interesting.

    4E18F719-3F51-4617-B9E7-D57961842A6B.png

    Day 10s

    8D2B2810-CB6C-4690-AE13-D7A75FA6145D.png

    D0703A5A-DB42-4E66-87ED-CD3D2B32C1E9.png

    CF5B7EF8-EEF2-4F66-A9F1-5ACCD667B293.png

    A6181DA2-F462-4021-857F-C103D7FEFD9F.png

    AC175BFE-1418-4CCD-953C-9F007ACB93F7.png

    22193C57-3DB5-4320-861E-6D3B43B48D34.png

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    22 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    The GEFS are really having a good go at setting up an easterly/ NE’LY at day 8, interesting.

     

    Day 10s

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Much bigger uncertainty (it starts earlier in the run but I was too late to catch it) 

    gensnh-22-1-288.png?18

     

    gensnh-22-1-300.png?18

     

    (edit:images don't work, well you just have to take my word for it) 

    Edited by ArHu3
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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
    14 minutes ago, brmbrmcar said:

    The FV3 is going for a different sort of Easterly to last run, it looks like.

    image.thumb.png.6ddde4e4334341c6bcca08dfa39aeff7.png

    Lovely chart that. Vortex spilling all over like runny egg yolk. 

    gfs-1-360.png

    gfsnh-0-360.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    P16, now that’s a good channel low.

    66807DDA-DDFB-4125-9EA2-2A009B73421B.png

    022C53C1-7C4F-454F-8DE0-A1AA084AF676.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Why no comments on the ECM - it’s a good one ? 144-168-192 below

    069D92ED-05F4-4BE2-8AAD-372F8AA0CE29.png

    537ACAF4-7EF3-41A0-BD78-7C4719877D68.png

    BE4EF154-B26E-4D1C-A5B6-9B369610D82C.png

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
    1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

    Why no comments on the ECM - it’s a good one ?

    I don't think it has updated yet? Certainly not on Net-Extra anyway.

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    Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
    5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    Why no comments on the ECM - it’s a good one ? 144-168-192 below

    I can't tell what it is leading to... Seems seasonal but not exceptional to me atm

    Edited by ArHu3
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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    216 good be good

    24133CA5-21D5-40AE-9942-EC6664CB43CC.png

    Northerly and Greeny block inbound at 216

    86A9E484-59A0-45F3-B7AF-6E6449C272C9.png

    Edited by Ali1977
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    Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

    I am seeing the ECM updating on meteociel, not outstanding but gets some cold air to southern England days 6-8, high is pushed back some distance southwest by day 6. Not as juicy as those GFS-P maps though. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
    3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

    216 good be good

    24133CA5-21D5-40AE-9942-EC6664CB43CC.png

    Northerly and Greeny block inbound at 216

    86A9E484-59A0-45F3-B7AF-6E6449C272C9.png

    Depends how those 2 lows pan out around Greenland, and the shot of WAA between them. It’s all for fun really as way out in LA LA Land.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

    Depends how those 2 lows pan out around Greenland, and the shot of WAA between them. It’s all for fun really as way out in LA LA Land.

    I think this will be close to what occurs. First ridge will be another failed Easterly attempt but better chance with the second wave/ridge in 10-14 days time.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK
  • Weather Preferences: Northeasterly Blizzard and sub zero temperatures.
  • Location: Salzburger Sportwelt Lungau/ Pongau Region. Somtimes Skipton UK

    Morning all in the UK. Not sure if this chart from ICON at 180t comes to fruition but all cold lovers would aspire this to be the case. Everything perfect, high orientation right to the North of British Isles, Polar vortex over White Sea, Mid Atlantic trough digging SE and 300mb jet looping well north in almost omega formation and most importantly lower heights established over Europe.  Its just one scenario but looks the best of this mornings models. Maybe ECM to follow with a different colder route<

    C

    ICOOPNH00_180_1.png

    Edited by carinthian
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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    When viewing gfs i was ready to throw in the towel, however once again ICON and ECM looking pretty good as far as trends go...ECM day 10, sub -10 uppers primed to flood south behind the trough passing thru. Core of vortex to the north east slowly edging south and an Atlantic ridge, with a tiny tweak westwards would be perfect..

     

    ECMOPEU00_240_1-6.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    If you ask me it’s slowly gathering momentum for a good cold spell, there seems to be more and more good charts appearing now as opposed to poo charts so I’d say that’s definitely a step in the right direction. You never no if we wait a few more days we may actually have a better idea for next week.

    my sledge is sat waiting patiently in the shed desperate to get out

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    Message added by phil nw.

     

    If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

    This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

    Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine

    Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.

    Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.

    Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

    Message added by Paul

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