The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Ukmo t168 will be interesting and we should be able to view the area of interest.

Ukmo day 7 not available whilst the wall isn’t being paid for !

week two currently settling into a dumbellimg mid Atlantic high with lows dropping into the sceuro trough and lee nor’easters at best for the uk ...... that fits with middle ground on recent days extended ens output .... whether we will actually reach this point with the Atlantic ridge unamplified remains the question - 

[feb1991blizzard]

Does anyone know of a website i can use for GFS stratospheric height forecasts right out to 384 at all levels please?, NOAA only goes out to 240 and looks not to be working properly anyway, Instantweathermaps is not updating properly.

[nick sussex]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Ukmo day 7 not available whilst the wall isn’t being paid for !

week two currently settling into a dumbellimg mid Atlantic high with lows dropping into the sceuro trough and lee nor’easters at best for the uk ...... that fits with middle ground on recent days extended ens output .... whether we will actually reach this point with the Atlantic ridge unamplified remains the question - 

BA isn’t the issue here whether the MJO forecasts are correct . Speeding through phase 7 . We’d prefer it stalling or slow moving at least once into that phase 7.

[Johnp]

14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Only ingredient missing is the precipitation ... Q the “get the cold in first and worry about the snow later” posts ... 

That's because it's true.

[Seasonality]

I know its gfs far FI, which speaks for itself. But I do think Europe will be in the freezer this January.

[Summer Sun]

11 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Ukmo t168 will be interesting and we should be able to view the area of interest.

Unfortunately, it's unavailable until further notice owing to the ongoing US Government shutdown whilst NOAA is still open it's only limited operations

[Tim Bland]

Just now, Johnp said:

That's because it's true.

Sometimes it is, but not if the cold is bought via a toppling ridge of high pressure. Looks like eastern most counties could see some wintry showers middle of nxt week but nothing indicating widespread snow yet as pressure is too high and there is no prospect of slider lows or convective weather

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Johnp said:

That's because it's true.

Depends what you call cold, it will not snow under the centre of a 1040mb high but could be max temps below freezing, even with very cold upper temps and an E'ly if the mid level lapse rates are not steep enough then PPN will be surpressed.

[Duane S.]

IMO, having the good stuff out of reach S and E with a HP over us in with a major SSW underway and the MJO heading into the Pacific is a blessing in disguise. The pattern isnt likely to edge further SE, the increasing propensity will be hold or retrogress. Therefore, let it get it nice and cold in the NE, with troughs galore, and bingo we are smack in the firing line as thing pull northwards.

Concerning that the METO changed their mid term forecast the other day, in what appears to have been a complete knee jerk reaction. I say ‘concerning’ as they appear to have done it based purely on the computer model output of the time. In light of the very well recognised fact that the models are going to struggle with this uncommon set up, they really should’ve left it way more open and with much wider caveats.

[karlos1983]

35 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Eh? Compare the charts from T+0 & T+216, it has quite clearly sunk South West and we're in Westerlies.

Sorry that’s the icon is it because that’s what we were talking about..... 

anyway whatever, bring on the cold ? 

Edited January 3, 2019 by karlos1983

[bluearmy]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

BA isn’t the issue here whether the MJO forecasts are correct . Speeding through phase 7 . We’d prefer it stalling or slow moving at least once into that phase 7.

I agree totally but I have a nag in the back of my mind that I read the SOI isn’t Nino reflective so are the Nino analogies reliable anyway ???

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Does anyone know of a website i can use for GFS stratospheric height forecasts right out to 384 at all levels please?, NOAA only goes out to 240 and looks not to be working properly anyway, Instantweathermaps is not updating properly.

Dont know if this will be any use but I sometimes use this http://www.frenchscotpilotweather.com/multivariables scroll down and you will see the GFS charts you can change between heights and temperature and it has from 1mb to 100mb 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

IMO, having the good stuff out of reach S and E with a HP over us in with a major SSW underway and the MJO heading into the Pacific is a blessing in disguise. The pattern isnt likely to edge further SE, the increasing propensity will be hold or retrogress. Therefore, let it get it nice and cold in the NE, with troughs galore, and bingo we are smack in the firing line as thing pull northwards.

Concerning that the METO changed their mid term forecast the other day, in what appears to have been a complete knee jerk reaction. I say ‘concerning’ as they appear to have done it based purely on the computer model output of the time. In light of the very well recognised fact that the models are going to struggle with this uncommon set up, they really should’ve left it way more open and with much wider caveats.

Not sure i agree with this, They have left caveats, i don't understand whats wrong with the wording, thats exactly how i would have worded it.

[nick sussex]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I agree totally but I have a nag in the back of my mind that I read the SOI isn’t Nino reflective so are the Nino analogies reliable anyway ???

Good point . Either way though our best bet is for the MJO to slow down once in phase 7.

On the last NCEP update the forecaster mentioned that we might see a Rossby wave during week 1 of the forecast . He talked about that because at the time the GEFS had the signal stalling in phase 7 , he said it looked dubious but threw in the Rossby wave as perhaps a reason why we might see that stalling .

The same thing happened during December , when the MJO got somewhat marooned in phase 5 . The forecaster put that down to Rossby wave activity .

Edited January 3, 2019 by nick sussex

[shaky]

More amplified gfs paara!!

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS even better already at 100 hours.

Stronger and further North ridging on the mean, may not be too significant at 100 hours wrt weather, but with a slight difference at 100 hours on a mean could be the difference between 5 or 6 members more or less than the previous run being properly cold in the 240-384 range.

Edited January 3, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Ali1977]

34 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Tuesday 8 Jan 2019 to Thursday 17 Jan 2019:

A cold north to northwesterly flow is likely to dominate early next week, with showers or perhaps more organised rain at times, mainly affecting northern and eastern areas, perhaps turning wintry over northern hills.

You need to read the outlook to comment on it.

And there it is! 

Interesting upgrades today

 

Country wide -6/-8c uppers in a NE’ly Does not equate to perhaps wintery showers in Northern hills.

[Mucka]

GFSp building the 2nd ridge into Greenland which the Op just flattened in an unlikely way

That could really help set up a cold pattern later if it happens

[Ali1977]

-6c mean down the east on the GEFS by next Wed.

Edited January 3, 2019 by Ali1977

[snowray]

Excellent para at T144, colder uppers, more PPN waiting to move in from the North Sea. 

 

[Weather-history]

5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

There is definitely more colder ensembles in the 06z run between 8th and 13th January

Average 850hpa for 10th January 

Yesterday's 12Z: 0.7C

Yesterday's 18z: -0.1C

Today's 0z: -0.4C

Today's 06z: -3.1C

 

12z ensembles for 10th January look even colder than the 06z ones, average is now -5.3C

[Weathizard]

Why people continually post about  the MO updates in this thread I will never know, they pretty much cover every basis they can fair play give it a look everyday but it’s realistically just a paragraph of hedged bets that’s about as likely to come to fruition as any of our forecasts.

GEFS are looking tasty on the panels, I’m sure they’ll be posted shortly, crucial ECM incoming need to continue the trend.

[Snow Dragon]

2 hours ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

I thought we were here to discuss the model runs not provide an impartial forecast for the public. There are plenty of other places for people to get that if they want it.

 

You seem to forget that you were new to the forum once and spent time looking for help, almost looking for an impartial forecast. Answers like yours do nothing to help those who, like yourself once was, are new the forum and looking for help trying to make sense of the ups and downs that we are seeing lately run to run in the models. People once had patience with you and all that is asked is that you pay back in kind.

 

Quote

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/41251-snowfall-this-winter/?tab=comments#comment-1086419

 

Edited January 3, 2019 by Snow Dragon

[ITSY]

Talk about shanon entropy. Just the 32c temperature variance over greenland...models don't have a clue 

Still though, i'd take this particular variant. Come home to papa 

Edited January 3, 2019 by ITSY

[wightwootton]

2 minutes ago, snowray said:

Excellent para at T144, colder uppers, more PPN waiting to move in from the North Sea. 

 

Thing of beauty GPS(P)