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Winter weather chat, moans, banter and ramps

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19 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

UK winters have always been a bug joke  for sustained cold and are even worse now due to lack of Arctic sea ice and warmer waters, you.be better of expecting no cold weather during the winter then you won't be disappointed when it fails to happen. 

Even at 4000 ft the snow has been nearly all wiped out and no decent skiing now, then in springtime we see perfect northern blocking, seen that countless times over the past decades when it's too late for decent snow but you get the perfect winter set up  but too late in the springtime away from high ground so just maybe the Scottish ski season can be saved but for everyone else rip winter 18/19

That's my expectation starting point every Winter -  Gulf Stream and large modifying (temps) body of water to our West usually influence in some form or other. It really is that simple.

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5 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

the amount of sea ice in the arctic has remained relatively constant over the last 10 years or so..according to some 10 years ago the summer ice was supposed to be gone by now

Yes I'm aware of that, but the overall long term trend ain't great. 

Figure-3-1024x791.png

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6 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes I'm aware of that, but the overall long term trend ain't great. 

Figure-3-1024x791.png

Thats only a 40 year trend..which is very short snap shot in time..the 100 year trend would look somewhat different or even a 1000 year trend

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Parts of Ireland the warmest places in most of Europe and North Africa just now. Bonkers! 

Screenshot_20190220-224426.png

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Sunny already today despite being forecast to be cloudy for most of the morning. Already up to 10.8C after a min of 8.4C so could be close to our record of 16.9C set in February 1998 on the first day of this spell.

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I know many inland areas are very mild during this spell, but here right on the south coast I’ve barely been scraping 10c maxes... down here this time of year usually gets higher maxes during westerly spells...

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11 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Thats only a 40 year trend..which is very short snap shot in time..the 100 year trend would look somewhat different or even a 1000 year trend

It's not just extent though.  The average thickness of sea ice has also dramatically decreased.

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22 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

Thats only a 40 year trend..which is very short snap shot in time..the 100 year trend would look somewhat different or even a 1000 year trend

Does this not concern you?

image.thumb.png.70e0864ff6d9c0d6b3b31203932707b4.png

 

 

Where on this chart might it suggest that Arctic Sea Ice extent might be just as low as it is now, maybe 100 years ago?

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59 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

Does this not concern you?

image.thumb.png.70e0864ff6d9c0d6b3b31203932707b4.png

 

 

Where on this chart might it suggest that Arctic Sea Ice extent might be just as low as it is now, maybe 100 years ago?

Indeed.... and the warming over the last 10 years has been exceptional. Individual months may see some cold over certain regions but this has little impact on global temperature overall. Can't deny the world is warming. This global temperature anomaly plot shows how foolish it can be to take regions of cold in isolation in the context of global temperature variability.

image.thumb.png.94684aa438eb389bb32ab68578d2e3e1.png

Back before 2007 the models thought summer sea ice wouldn't vanish until the 2070s, however what has happened in the 10 years since has caused a huge revision of those forecasts. Now the consensus is the 2030s with only the most aggressive ensembles picked the late 2010s (like a cold outlier in an ensemble pack).

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16 hours ago, parrotingfantasist said:

Does this not concern you?

image.thumb.png.70e0864ff6d9c0d6b3b31203932707b4.png

 

 

Where on this chart might it suggest that Arctic Sea Ice extent might be just as low as it is now, maybe 100 years ago?

That graph doesn't show that Antarctic Sea Ice extent ice was slowly increasing for 35 years until a couple of years ago so it's fair to say it might not be great help with ice interpetation.

Then consider how they measured the temperature of the Southern Hemisphere (and other seas and frozen areas of the planet) before satellites to get that graph. It's all sea and ice that nobody bothered with much as there was and is nowhere much to visit or reside. How did they measure southern oceans and Arctic/Antarctic temperatures in 1850,1900, and even 1950, if there was no equipment and hardly any people there, and proxies don't produce enough data points or precision needed? How do you get global averages going back 170 years when more than half the planet has next to no data for 130 of them? On one of the few bits of land in the SH from which they draw assumptions to fill in the gaps, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology don't use the heatwave data of the 1880s and 90s as they are considered to be inconsistent with modern techniques so the offical land data record is only considered fit to start around 1910 - just after what some consider Australia's hottest period in recorded history had finished. Then there are adjustments for a host of discontinuities (like the change to electronic sensors from alcohol and mercury) which cloud the issue and are hotly disputed. In that temperature graph, you are actually only being presented with one of a range of possible assumptions from many potential ones. Change the assumptions and you change the graph.

 I question any data before the 1970s as being highly suspect for global averages. I wonder how they dare to use it - although a few limited regions might have enough data with sufficiently few discontinuities to be okay for some local trends. Since the 1970s, there does look to be warming in satellite global averages  - though with significant differences between different models so cautions still apply - but there are suggestions they might have started in a cold interlude (the 70s global cooling scare) ,and is that warming trend now moderating? The global average has been falling since the El Nino Feb 2016 peak and this month to date is less than +0.250C. The current weak  El Nino will probably push this back up again, or maybe not. But what will it mean, with only 40 years of more widespread global satellite data and models that produce results that still disagree with each other somewhat?

 

ncep_cfsr_t2m_anom.pngncep_cfsr_t2m_anom_012016.png

 

I think most people agree it got warmer between the 70s and the Noughties, with fairly good anecdotal evidence to match the satellite readings.  Data before that is just plain iffy and clashes with some anecdotes (e.g. old news reports on US dustbowl years). Further warming in the last decade is less obvious from ice and temperature readings but it looks like there has probably been a little more but not as quickly as the previous two decades. So, did those two decades start in a cold dip and were just a bounce back that is running out of steam? Quite possibly but that does not preclude longer term warming, either. We need to wait for more good data. Contested adjusting to old limited coverage data is just not good enough.

 

 

Edited by Aleman
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16 hours ago, parrotingfantasist said:

Does this not concern you?

image.thumb.png.70e0864ff6d9c0d6b3b31203932707b4.png

 

 

Where on this chart might it suggest that Arctic Sea Ice extent might be just as low as it is now, maybe 100 years ago?

It seems that CCDs will continue their 'work' right up until the very last crystal of sea-ice finally leaves the planet...Looks as if future generations'll continue to be subjected to their denialist 'evidence', for many a year?

Earth was warmer, back in the Jurassic Period, you know?🦕

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Even in Slovakia February is turning into a bust. There was a bit of snow in the first week but it's been like spring ever since then. A chilly weekend coming up but then back to the double-digit highs. What a bummer. I hope March makes up for this nothing February. 👎

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And back in Blighty  people are enjoying this early spring... warm/v warm/hot/heat wave.......

No its not lol. its a very mild spell nothing more!

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41 minutes ago, AderynCoch said:

Even in Slovakia February is turning into a bust. There was a bit of snow in the first week but it's been like spring ever since then. A chilly weekend coming up but then back to the double-digit highs. What a bummer. I hope March makes up for this nothing February. 👎

Great to hear it, 230m asl away from the Atlantic and no snow!

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March 1987,cold uppers didn`t make it was still very cold though.

Rrea00119870310.gifRrea00219870310.gif

Edited by Snowyowl9

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2 hours ago, mb018538 said:

On a serious note, I think a lot of areas may be welcoming the rain as we head into March. If we suffered a dry spring after a dry winter....and not forgetting last summer, we could have had a few issues heading into summer 2019. 

You might need it where you are, but we certainly don't down here. November and December were extremely wet here, putting last years rainfall above average. Also, this Winter has been the wettest since the infamous one of 2013/2014. 80mm of rain recorded in the first 10 days of February.

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13 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

You might need it where you are, but we certainly don't down here. November and December were extremely wet here, putting last years rainfall above average. Also, this Winter has been the wettest since the infamous one of 2013/2014. 80mm of rain recorded in the first 10 days of February.

Interesting differences. Up in NW England where I live it's been a bit drier than normal with a distinct lack of gales which normally buffet us from time to time. If we can't get snow then I do like a good Atlantic storm but even this has been lacking too.

Edited by Frost HoIIow

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8 hours ago, Mapantz said:

You might need it where you are, but we certainly don't down here. November and December were extremely wet here, putting last years rainfall above average. Also, this Winter has been the wettest since the infamous one of 2013/2014. 80mm of rain recorded in the first 10 days of February.

Yeah it’s very localised for sure. It was about 45 consecutive days without rain here last summer, plus a very dry autumn and winter.

Edited by mb018538

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The most frustrating period of winter for me was that period from Christmas into January. It was generally dry but far too cloudy and at times very mild. When it looked as though we would get rid of the mild anticylonic gloom around New Year's, the high became cloudy quickly again.

Christmas Eve 2018 to 11th January 2019 had a CET of 5.5C

Compare that to the same period, 10 years earlier, which was also heavily dominated by high pressure and the CET was about 0.9C.

All due to high pressue position, how clean the high was and infiltration of any cold airmasses into the high. 

 

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North sea misty low cloud burnt off very quickly today, never clears like that in May/June, can last all day, or at best 1-2pm clearance

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1 hour ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

North sea misty low cloud burnt off very quickly today, never clears like that in May/June, can last all day, or at best 1-2pm clearance

I thought that too....you’d think the strength of the sun in June would burn it off much quicker. I guess the cloud deck is that much thicker in early summer with the contrast between sea and land? Was gone by 10am here, had a few days in June last year that lasted til lunchtime 

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15 hours ago, DAVID SNOW said:

And back in Blighty  people are enjoying this early spring... warm/v warm/hot/heat wave.......

No its not lol. its a very mild spell nothing more!

I don’t get why people are trying to downplay the current spell of weather. It’s record breaking in some areas, and some 8-10c above average. I’d say 16-18c counts as warm. Seen plenty of people out in t shirts and eating outside etc.

Edited by mb018538
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5 hours ago, mb018538 said:

I thought that too....you’d think the strength of the sun in June would burn it off much quicker. I guess the cloud deck is that much thicker in early summer with the contrast between sea and land? Was gone by 10am here, had a few days in June last year that lasted til lunchtime 

The position of the high to the south east is helping with that. Last June it positioned more to the east north east thus making all the difference dragging in much larger amounts of cloud. We have perfect Synoptics at the moment pretty much.

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8 hours ago, mb018538 said:

I don’t get why people are trying to downplay the current spell of weather. It’s record breaking in some areas, and some 8-10c above average. I’d say 16-18c counts as warm. Seen plenty of people out in t shirts and eating outside etc.

Climate change deniers getting hot under the collar and trying to act as if its normal, if tempteratures were 2C below average they would be hyping it up...

For March, temperatures look like moving back towards the average. More unsettled and windier than normal however with some deep lows on the ens.

The parallel is rather cold as lows clear leaving northerlies in their wake. A reminder we are not quite out of winter yet... but so sign of any decent northern blocking either out till 10 days.

image.thumb.png.d78b6f49137805b88f8b5511ac4c6593.png

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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20 hours ago, Mapantz said:

You might need it where you are, but we certainly don't down here. November and December were extremely wet here, putting last years rainfall above average. Also, this Winter has been the wettest since the infamous one of 2013/2014. 80mm of rain recorded in the first 10 days of February.

That's a pretty big contrast to here in the east, December was a bit drier then average but a large part of the rainfall total was due to a heavy rain event earlier in the month. January and February however have been really dry with the only decent bit of rain I can remember falling being towards the start of the month.

Given Autumn was only average for rainfall here another dry summer could be very problematic.

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