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Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Location: Lincolnshire
    17 hours ago, Rambo said:

    Thats wrong though. Jan is 0.4 below the 81-10 average, and only 0.2 above the 61-90 average, so by modern standards its on the cusp of being below, and more or less average for older standards. So not sure where you're getting the above average from?

    As for the rest, exactly, even these days, there's many aspects that are difficult to predict. So why do you feel the need to blame anyone or everyone? This winter has been very difficult to predict by nearly every model or forecasting service. I dont think there's any single forecast that has been anywhere near 100% correct, even at shorter ranges.

    If you can do a better job, then go for it lol, although I'd wager you'd be happier if every month was above average.

    I'm sure you don't need me to tell you it's the 61/90 stats that count as far as the WMO is concerned, so yes, 2 out of 2 so far re above average CETs.

    I just think the Meto need to be held to account for their very poor 30 dayers. They seem to get worse each year and the wording is appalling, eg; "high chance of a cold spell in Mid February, but confidence is low..." I mean, that is just farcical! I really do wonder about the mythical "secret data" that they allegedly have access to, that the great unwashed don't. 

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    "BOOM! Could be before Christmas...." "Look at that, it will be after Christmas...." "Ah no, it will be after New Years...." "Plenty of potential for mid-January...."    

    Perhaps we should ban all model charts beyond T+120 hours. We could then go back to the 70-80's and actually watch weather forecasts from professionals. Probably not believing them anyway and happy to

    Unusually for me, I'm not even longing for snow and I LOVE snow. Just want heat and the sun back. Maybe I'm still traumatised from being a hermit for a week during Beast from the East!

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    Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

    Well, the thaw set in yesterday afternoon and we had issues overnight that has led to me discovering a burst pipe in the garage this morning. I've manage to isolate our supply and a plumber is coming soon. Damage is unassessed but I'm keeping my fingers crossed it's not much more than a wet floor.  However, anybody telling me it's been quite mild will get the same as the garage - a new length of copper pipe inserting!

    Edited by Aleman
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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    17 hours ago, Mr TOAD said:

     I hope you're right, especially about this summer.  The thought of anything as warm as last year fills me with dread.

    Lol I actually say that in a negative sense. 

    I just have a feeling people will be getting their hopes up for a repeat of last year, and wave goodbye to winter 18/19 too soon. 

    What I hate about this country sometimes is, we end up with a boring winter, followed by a poor or mediocre summer, despite warmer than average temps, many days of cloudy weather or rainy periods occur. Much like 2015 and 16 summers. I really don’t want those back.

    Its pure guesswork, but after the glorious summer of 2018, which I will agree was a little too hot at times, (especially for people living in the big cities like London and Birmingham), plus the half decent early summer of 2017 which produced a warm and sunny June and first half of July. I just can’t see 2019 following this pattern.

    I predict a good second half to April and a fairly sunny and warmish May, possibly a hot spell in early June.

    Mid June until mid August will be the worst we’ve seen in years, with many cloudy days. The odd few days of warm to hot sunny weather mixed in. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds
    2 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

    Lol I actually say that in a negative sense. 

    I just have a feeling people will be getting their hopes up for a repeat of last year, and wave goodbye to winter 18/19 too soon. 

    What I hate about this country sometimes is, we end up with a boring winter, followed by a poor or mediocre summer, despite warmer than average temps, many days of cloudy weather or rainy periods occur. Much like 2015 and 16 summers. I really don’t want those back.

    Its pure guesswork, but after the glorious summer of 2018, which I will agree was a little too hot at times, (especially for people living in the big cities like London and Birmingham), plus the half decent early summer of 2017 which produced a warm and sunny June and first half of July. I just can’t see 2019 following this pattern.

    I predict a good second half to April and a fairly sunny and warmish May, possibly a hot spell in early June.

    Mid June until mid August will be the worst we’ve seen in years, with many cloudy days. The odd few days of warm to hot sunny weather mixed in. 

    Even if this summer is cool and rainy, I’ll happily take that over a miserable winter. Even 2007 had warm periods. August 2007 was also a fairly good month here with plenty of dry, sunny weather. Plus you can never change the longer days.

    There is no quota on good summer weather though. We saw back to back good summers in the 90s. 1994-1997 were all decent summers. Most summers from 1989 to 2006 were decent, with a few horrors thrown in.

    Edited by cheese
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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
    7 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

    Lol I actually say that in a negative sense. 

    I just have a feeling people will be getting their hopes up for a repeat of last year, and wave goodbye to winter 18/19 too soon. 

    What I hate about this country sometimes is, we end up with a boring winter, followed by a poor or mediocre summer, despite warmer than average temps, many days of cloudy weather or rainy periods occur. Much like 2015 and 16 summers. I really don’t want those back.

    Its pure guesswork, but after the glorious summer of 2018, which I will agree was a little too hot at times, (especially for people living in the big cities like London and Birmingham), plus the half decent early summer of 2017 which produced a warm and sunny June and first half of July. I just can’t see 2019 following this pattern.

    I predict a good second half to April and a fairly sunny and warmish May, possibly a hot spell in early June.

    Mid June until mid August will be the worst we’ve seen in years, with many cloudy days. The odd few days of warm to hot sunny weather mixed in. 

    what was wrong with Summers 2015 and 16?..apart from the poor second half of Aug 2015 and the poor June of 2016 they were pretty decent in my book..plenty of 25c+ days in London both years

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    On 03/02/2019 at 10:37, Easton Luna Boys said:

    But if Feb does come into the milder category, then it will mean that ALL 3 winter months will have had a higher than average CET. Tell me; where did any of the forecast organisations predict that ?

    Personally, I think the Meto Long range has been shocking. Did they just keep throwing the dice on the hopeful effects of the SSW? 

    One thing we can learn from this winter, is that despite all the talk about background signals and SSWs our understanding is still very limited in these areas. 

     

    Something else we can learn is that you rarely get a cold winter with decent snow events if the preceding Nov and December cet have been above average, like they both were, and I'm never bothering looking at the METO extended forecasts or ec46 again, both useless 

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

    January was slightly below average.

    Well a few snow drifts survived,one may be still here tomorrow as we now have a ground frost 2c max of 8c.

    Edited by Snowyowl9
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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
    9 hours ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

    I'm sure you don't need me to tell you it's the 61/90 stats that count as far as the WMO is concerned, so yes, 2 out of 2 so far re above average CETs.

    So average then, even going by the older averages! lol

    The reality is, no matter how much you dont like it, by modern standards January was below average (or more or less average given slight deviation)

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    3 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

    what was wrong with Summers 2015 and 16?..apart from the poor second half of Aug 2015 and the poor June of 2016 they were pretty decent in my book..plenty of 25c+ days in London both years

    No, there were lots of cloudy days in both summers and too many days of dull dreary weather. Rainy days and disappointing temps. I know it was also warm to hot at times, but it wasn’t consistently so. I remember because I work outside for a living. One tends to remember getting soaked in the rain. I do recall long periods of days with dull cloudy weather, despite being 20c-22c. Without the sunshine, it just doesn’t qualify as a decent summer for me. 

    2017 was an improvement, and 2018 was even better. August 17 was disappointing though. 

    This is purely based on my experience of living in London. Others will have a different opinion, depending what part of the country they live in. 

    Edited by Sunny76
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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    8 hours ago, cheese said:

    Even if this summer is cool and rainy, I’ll happily take that over a miserable winter. Even 2007 had warm periods. August 2007 was also a fairly good month here with plenty of dry, sunny weather. Plus you can never change the longer days.

    There is no quota on good summer weather though. We saw back to back good summers in the 90s. 1994-1997 were all decent summers. Most summers from 1989 to 2006 were decent, with a few horrors thrown in.

    Don’t remind me about 2007. That was a horrible summer, and one I would rather forget. It was one of the wettest, and the drier August doesn’t make up for what was an appalling summer. 

    Some people on here try to play down just how bad our summers have been in some years during the 2000s and 2010s. Warmer than average temps, will not always guarantee good sunny weather. I would also argue 2007-2012 was dreadful, and easily the worst string of summers since the mid 1980s, and 2015/2016 summers weren’t far behind. They were warm at times, but too many cloudy days and not enough long spells of sunshine, when required.

    I prefer the continental climate, where a proper winter and hot summer are almost guaranteed. 

    We have such a rubbish climate.

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
    1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

    No, there were lots of cloudy days in both summers and too many days of dull dreary weather. Rainy days and disappointing temps. I know it was also warm to hot at times, but it wasn’t consistently so. I remember because I work outside for a living. One tends to remember getting soaked in the rain. I do recall long periods of days with dull cloudy weather, despite being 20c-22c. Without the sunshine, it just doesn’t qualify as a decent summer for me. 

    2017 was an improvement, and 2018 was even better. August 17 was disappointing though. 

    This is purely based on my experience of living in London. Others will have a different opinion, depending what part of the country they live in. 

    i lived in London from 2014 to Dec 2016..wasn't my experience ..i work in Construction where we keep a daily record of weather temps rainfall etc

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    10 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

    i lived in London from 2014 to Dec 2016..wasn't my experience ..i work in Construction where we keep a daily record of weather temps rainfall etc

    you should live here if you hate snow, this has been one of worst winters ever, only the odd smattering and odd flurry, bad even for the large teapot

    still time yet I know, late Feb to mid Apr is more likely to see snow, than Dec to mid Feb

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    Posted
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.
  • Location: Powys Mid Wales borders.

    What is wrong with this chart February 14th and its stuck on February 6th for the rest of the month,march is ok though.

    AVN_1_2014021400_1.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

    great innit.. Darren Bett on the beeb forecast - 50 to 70mph winds on Friday, but at least it'll be mild.

    Smile at the end... and then Fiona says 'thanks very much'

    Yeah, thanks very much.. probably going to have to get the roof repair guy out again

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
    2 minutes ago, stevofunnelcl said:

    great innit.. Darren Bett on the beeb forecast - 50 to 70mph winds on Friday, but at least it'll be mild.

    Smile at the end... and then Fiona says 'thanks very much'

    Yeah, thanks very much.. probably going to have to get the roof repair guy out again

    is Atlantic village still open..used to go there once in a while 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    5 minutes ago, stevofunnelcl said:

    great innit.. Darren Bett on the beeb forecast - 50 to 70mph winds on Friday, but at least it'll be mild.

    Smile at the end... and then Fiona says 'thanks very much'

    Yeah, thanks very much.. probably going to have to get the roof repair guy out again

    course it's going to be mild with 70mph gusts!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    30 minutes ago, stevofunnelcl said:

    great innit.. Darren Bett on the beeb forecast - 50 to 70mph winds on Friday, but at least it'll be mild.

    Smile at the end... and then Fiona says 'thanks very much'

    Yeah, thanks very much.. probably going to have to get the roof repair guy out again

    Yeh, happiest I've seen him for ages, he looked bloody furious when predicting the snow and cold the other week!  ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
    22 hours ago, cheeky_monkey said:

    is Atlantic village still open..used to go there once in a while 

    yeah, they decided to have a name change, and they haven't told the local buses, that still say 'atlantic village' - it's still there

    they are called Affinity Devon now... which i think is a rubbish name

    Edited by stevofunnelcl
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    Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

    so i flick on a local news bulletin, female reporter from Penzance.. massive thick coat on, and a massive scarf wrapped around her neck. So is Penzance -11c or +11c right now. Friggin 'ell, it's mild Penzance... not Siberia

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    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
    11 minutes ago, stevofunnelcl said:

    so i flick on a local news bulletin, female reporter from Penzance.. massive thick coat on, and a massive scarf wrapped around her neck. So is Penzance -11c or +11c right now. Friggin 'ell, it's mild Penzance... not Siberia

    The 'feels like' temperature is about 1°C down there. 

    I have been working outside today, and despite reaching 10.7°C, the 'feels like' temp was around 4°C - it felt cold in the wind.

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    3 hours ago, Mapantz said:

    The 'feels like' temperature is about 1°C down there. 

    I have been working outside today, and despite reaching 10.7°C, the 'feels like' temp was around 4°C - it felt cold in the wind.

    Yes, it was like this in London today. Nice in the sun, but still cold in the wind or during cloudy periods. The temp was 4-5 degrees with the windchill, despite reaching 9-10c. 

    Thats the reason I still wrap up until it reaches at least 14 degrees. 

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    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London
    On 04/02/2019 at 22:19, cheeky_monkey said:

    i lived in London from 2014 to Dec 2016..wasn't my experience ..i work in Construction where we keep a daily record of weather temps rainfall etc

    Well, I do remember lots of cloudy weather in June of 2016 and many miserable days in August 2015. For me, that’s enough to make the summer disappointing. 

    2014 was much better, even with the cooler August, but 2015 had more unsettled periods. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Location: Back in Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
    16 hours ago, Sunny76 said:

    Well, I do remember lots of cloudy weather in June of 2016 and many miserable days in August 2015. For me, that’s enough to make the summer disappointing. 

    2014 was much better, even with the cooler August, but 2015 had more unsettled periods. 

    2015 was decent..had the record breaking heat at the start of July.. from mid June to mid August there were lots of days that got above 25c..June 2016 was a washout..however mid July to the end of Sept were again good lots of days above 25c and 2 hot spells one in August and one mid September when it got close to the mid 30s both times

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    Posted
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.
  • Location: Ouse Valley, N. Bedfordshire. 48m asl.

    2015 was not a classic, yet it still had some crazy hot humid days that were more uncomfortable than anything summer 2018 had! I remember that summer well as I made a point of going out for a 4 mile walk every day of the summer and it was nice. June was a bit meh but the rest was fine. 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: Basically intresting weather,hot,cold,windy you name it
  • Location: sheffield

    Dreading the onset of the dark cloud that is Summer,leaving my favourite season of the year as Winter draws closer to the end fills me with a feeling of foreboding,for me Spring and Summer only bring misery,seriously will be making the most of what's left of this poor winter and will soon be counting the days to that welcome Autumn. It won't come quick enough.

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