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Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Not a fan of heatstroke.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
    Just now, Rambo said:

    After that comment, I'll change my comment.....you'd be penniless instead lol

    Just as well I'm not a meteorologist!  I'm well aware that the Law of Averages is rubbish, but what is accurate is that our winters tend to be mild, so, in any one winter, it's more likely to be snowless away from NW Scotland and high ground.

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    "BOOM! Could be before Christmas...." "Look at that, it will be after Christmas...." "Ah no, it will be after New Years...." "Plenty of potential for mid-January...."    

    Perhaps we should ban all model charts beyond T+120 hours. We could then go back to the 70-80's and actually watch weather forecasts from professionals. Probably not believing them anyway and happy to

    Unusually for me, I'm not even longing for snow and I LOVE snow. Just want heat and the sun back. Maybe I'm still traumatised from being a hermit for a week during Beast from the East!

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    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Not a fan of heatstroke.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.

    Controversial thought - is study of the stratosphere simply an interesting area of research but without any application to the actual weather?  In other words, does it actually do anything?

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    8 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

    Just as well I'm not a meteorologist!  I'm well aware that the Law of Averages is rubbish, but what is accurate is that our winters tend to be mild, so, in any one winter, it's more likely to be snowless away from NW Scotland and high ground.

    Define snowless because I have never seen a snowless winter.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Not a fan of heatstroke.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
    2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    Define snowless because I have never seen a snowless winter.

    OK, nothing remaining on grass/natural ground cover for more than a minute or so.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lake District, Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather of all kinds, natural disasters and catastrophes.
  • Location: Lake District, Cumbria

    I haven't made too many friends on the north west regional thread having predicted a downgrade in Tuesdays event which was set to hit the region and the cold period that was speculated to follow. 

    BBC seem to be going with the Tuesday band not being anything significant which was our regions best hope.

    Disappointing but not surprised, it has happened so many times over the years!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
    2 hours ago, Barmada Casten said:

    I haven't made too many friends on the north west regional thread having predicted a downgrade in Tuesdays event which was set to hit the region and the cold period that was speculated to follow. 

    BBC seem to be going with the Tuesday band not being anything significant which was our regions best hope.

    Disappointing but not surprised, it has happened so many times over the years!!

    You mean the 0z ECM didnt make much of tuesday lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    On 26 December 2018 at 18:38, Barmada Casten said:

    In my 15th year on this forum, this is the worst winter by a LONG way.

    I only spotted this post and I'm suprised you say this at the time because what about December 2015? I assume you were in Cumbria during that month? Surely that was the worst with all the rain, flooding and the mildness? 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Snow and more Snow, Blizzards,Thunder Snow, Hoarfrost, Frost
  • Location: Ermington, Ivybridge, 20m (66ft) ASL 🙈
    8 hours ago, Barmada Casten said:

    I haven't made too many friends on the north west regional thread having predicted a downgrade in Tuesdays event which was set to hit the region and the cold period that was speculated to follow. 

    BBC seem to be going with the Tuesday band not being anything significant which was our regions best hope.

    Disappointing but not surprised, it has happened so many times over the years!!

    Yep, looking like a none starter for most, This winter is proving especially hard, models etc. promising so much, but delivering so little...

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    Models promise nothing ,especially beyond 5 days ,until we get a model that is more than 80% accurate beyond 7 days then we will be able to feel we've been lied to ,these models all of them change from run to run ,I gave up believing them years ago and this year they haven't improved at all if anything they have got worse , which proves that no one or no computer  model still can't understand or predict the weather and what's going on in our atmospere 

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    Posted
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs
  • Location: spalding, sth lincs

    well i have to say last night was colder than forecast, here we are at 8.30am and the temp is -4.8c, very frosty, a cracking sun rise and looks to be a beautiful winters day, as we are not getting any snow this winter then this will do, also its that cold my half marathon training run will be a bit quicker to keep warm, lol

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    Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m
    5 hours ago, Weather-history said:

    I only spotted this post and I'm suprised you say this at the time because what about December 2015? I assume you were in Cumbria during that month? Surely that was the worst with all the rain, flooding and the mildness? 

     

    Even in these pennine hills I only recall one other year that we had to wait until the 3rd week of January to get our first snowcover (although we did get a brief dusting on ground above 400m last month)

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    Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire

    Does that extend back to the 70s? We had a few brutal winters then and I don't remember any snow before New Year. Snow was considered a January to April thing, with a few older hands remembering snow in June once.

    At football yesterday, I was told there was still lying snow at Queensbury and Malham. I might add it was piggin cold - the car said 1C when I parked up and 2C when I left.

    Edited by Aleman
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    Posted
  • Location: Leeds
  • Weather Preferences: snow, heat, thunderstorms
  • Location: Leeds

    Since we're not having much luck here, here's a cold Stockholm to admire. ❄️❄️

    q3KTwYB.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

    we have gone from snowmageddon charts three days ago, to people saying things like 'during Feb, something may pop up'

    As Mark Sudduth once said, hope is not a good planning tool. I'm looking for more

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    Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
    On 19/01/2019 at 16:06, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

    After February 2018 we were never going to get a cold one this year.

    That is not true, we have got half the winter left still!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
    8 minutes ago, stevofunnelcl said:

    we have gone from snowmageddon charts three days ago, to people saying things like 'during Feb, something may pop up'

    As Mark Sudduth once said, hope is not a good planning tool. I'm looking for more

    Forecast is correct in the sense that the predictions made a few days ago will happen, it is now looking like it will take longer for the blocking pattern to develop due to the us winter storm taking longer to move across the atlantic and down the North Sea into the mediterranean. This was supposed to happen at he middle of next week however it is now being taken to Scandinavia first, pushing the high pressure, that would have given us the cold easterly flow, into Russia. After that point, the same low will move down the North Sea (still uncertain though) and into France and then the Mediterranean by the start of the week beginning 28th of January allowing high pressure to re establish itself and build over Scandinavia and then there is the increasing chance of easterly winds so it still may happen, just a little delayed as the ssw event is causing very slow changes this time round as opposed to last year’s one which happened very quickly.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Not a fan of heatstroke.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
    43 minutes ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

    That is not true, we have got half the winter left still!

    Deliberately provocative post on my part, old chap.  There was a sense when I typed it that we were somehow "owed" cold weather as the first half of winter was so uninteresting; I was pointing out that we had an incredible end to winter last year and that to expect such a setup two years in succession was unrealistic*.

     

    *Of course, the probability of a particular outcome this winter is unaffected by the outcome last year, but the probability of those conditions in two consecutive winters is pretty low, at least for the southern half of the UK.

    Edited by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
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    Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
    3 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

    Deliberately provocatie post on my part, old chap.

    Oh ok, well this is a weather discussion with banter in the title after all, I forgot about that

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    Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
    6 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

    Deliberately provocative post on my part, old chap.  There was a sense when I typed it that we were somehow "owed" cold weather as the first half of winter was so uninteresting; I was pointing out that we had an incredible end to winter last year and that to expect such a setup two years in succession was unrealistic*.

     

    *Of course, the probability of a particular outcome this winter is unaffected by the outcome last year, but the probability of those conditions in two consecutive winters is pretty low, at least for the southern half of the UK.

    It happened consecutively in 2009/2010 though so you never know

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    Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Not a fan of heatstroke.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
    Just now, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

    It happened consecutively in 2009/2010 though so you never know

    Absolutely - it's just less likely.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, strong winds
  • Location: Beckenham, Kent, UK
    38 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

    Absolutely - it's just less likely.

    I think, judging by the latest ec, icon and gfs models, they appear to be converging on the idea of building pressure over Scandinavia by 28th/29th or at least by the turn of the month, obviously still extremely uncertain. And the low that comes out of the US this Monday (the winter storm) will race across the North Atlantic past Iceland and into Scandinavia, almost bumping the high pressure, that was supposed to have built by the middle of the week, into north west Russia, opening the door to westerly or northwesterly winds which would be less cold. The building pressure over Scandinavia is showing signs of returning by the end of this month if the low moves down the North Sea and into the Mediterranean like it says which would give us a strong easterly airflow and snow showers hitting eastern parts of the uk. Currently it all depends where the us storm moves. Hopefully this will all unfold but it is just impossible to ascertain at this stage. I’m watching the weather like a hawk at the moment!

    Edited by Oliver Wyndham-lewis
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    Posted
  • Location: halifax 125m
  • Weather Preferences: extremes the unusual and interesting facts
  • Location: halifax 125m
    9 hours ago, Aleman said:

    Does that extend back to the 70s? We had a few brutal winters then and I don't remember any snow before New Year. Snow was considered a January to April thing, with a few older hands remembering snow in June once.

    At football yesterday, I was told there was still lying snow at Queensbury and Malham. I might add it was piggin cold - the car said 1C when I parked up and 2C when I left.

    Certainly back to the early seventies.I lived at 340m and snow in December,November and even October was a more frequent event than these modern times.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Yorkshire
  • Location: Yorkshire
    10 hours ago, hillbilly said:

    Certainly back to the early seventies.I lived at 340m and snow in December,November and even October was a more frequent event than these modern times.

     

    Strange, I lived at just under 1000 feet and don't remember any early snow, though I don't quite recall the early 70s - just the snowier winters of the later 70s that started late, as I recall. It was said amongst farmers that snowier winters started later. I don't know if they still say the same, though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Moreton-in-Marsh area, 175m asl
  • Location: Moreton-in-Marsh area, 175m asl

    i see the ecm 46 has shifted away from the direction as shown for the last few weeks. another disappointment

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