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Winter weather chat, moans, banter and ramps


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"BOOM! Could be before Christmas...." "Look at that, it will be after Christmas...." "Ah no, it will be after New Years...." "Plenty of potential for mid-January...."    

Perhaps we should ban all model charts beyond T+120 hours. We could then go back to the 70-80's and actually watch weather forecasts from professionals. Probably not believing them anyway and happy to

Unusually for me, I'm not even longing for snow and I LOVE snow. Just want heat and the sun back. Maybe I'm still traumatised from being a hermit for a week during Beast from the East!

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13 hours ago, cold snap said:

Mods. 

Can we start a new thread please.

Heading into Christmas? I'm done with it. Thank you 

Would that be (Heading into Christmas 2019) he he 

It’ll soon change from moans to ramps r us ?

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3 hours ago, Evening Star said:

I'd happily have this winter be rubbish if it means we get a repeat of last summer next year.

Unfortunately though it doesn't mean that. Although I'm at least partially optimistic that it might be a good one, simply based on the fact that last Summer was a good one and there are plenty of analogues of good Summer's coming in pairs. Not always mind, but it's a small straw to clutch at for now. 

Getting back to this current Winter, I was kind of hopeful, been as last Winter was quite productive for cold and snowy spells and been as we're fast approaching solar minimum I thought this Winter might pick up where last one dropped off. It still might mind and it's worth reminding ourselves that the period most conducive for cold and snow in this part of the world is still actually before us, despite it been Winter for just over 4 weeks. If it is to come around mid January, then so be it. I doubt any of us would complain by the time as long as it happened and been as we've got over another 2 months until the point when it'll be a year since last Winters last cold spell, in that context at least we should really afford to be patient. Anyway from what I can gather based on the mood of the MOD thread, things are looking slightly better than the last couple of days. Baby steps and all that. Hopefully anyway.

 

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Just now, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Unfortunately though it doesn't mean that. Although I'm at least partially optimistic that it might be a good one, simply based on the fact that last Summer was a good one and there are plenty of analogues of good Summer's coming in pairs. Not always mind, but it's a small straw to clutch at for now. 

Getting back to this current Winter, I was kind of hopeful, been as last Winter was quite productive for cold and snowy spells and been as we're fast approaching solar minimum I thought this Winter might pick up where last one dropped off. It still might mind and it's worth reminding ourselves that the period most conducive for cold and snow in this part of the world is still actually before us, despite it been Winter for just over 4 weeks. If it is to come around mid January, then so be it. I doubt any of us would complain by the time as long as it happened and been as we've got over another 2 months until the point when it'll be a year since last Winters last cold spell, in that context at least we should really afford to be patient. Anyway from what I can gather based on the mood of the MOD thread, things are looking slightly better than the last couple of days. Baby steps and all that. Hopefully anyway.

 

Yep plenty of time for cold!  Just had a stronger than expected SSW too which is gonna throw a spanner into the (weather model) works.

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22 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It all goes pear shaped quickly upstream . Not enough phasing with the two jets and flatter than last night . The ECM is atrocious .

The rest are hardly inspiring . We’ve hit the wall this morning !

The wait continues .......

Yes.

I think what is most annoying is that not just is the trop modelling not indicating any change to the long promised cold, it's actually moving in the opposite direction to high level blocking. 

There is I think a certain over-confidence among some, including the Met O, about their knowledge of atmospheric modelling and the eventual impact on surface weather. 

If this long promised cold spell fails to materialise, then I hope it will prompt a re-consideration of what we do (and do not) understand about the atmosphere. Because this will amount to another of the MetO's disastrous but seminal 'barbecue summer' longer range forecasts ....... an embarrassing bust.

Now of course it might still be that eventually something happens. But we're getting to the stage where we're in broken clock territory, and if we do ever get a meaningful cold spell we will have no idea whether it's due to SSW or not (although no doubt self- appointed teleconnections experts will claim it as due to SSW no matter what). 

 

 

 

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Very disappointing output this morning combined with negative comments regarding cold for UK from some BBC weather Presenters!

It's looking increasingly unlikely that UK will benefit (in terms of severe cold) from the current SSW.

I now think we need to lower our expectations for January and hope that we see improvements as we approach February.

It looks like it will be late season excitement again this season or possibly no excitement at all!   ?

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Meanwhile, cold (in the true meaning of the word) starts as early as Tuesday night for some and midweek for all. Don't know about others, but the outlook regardless of a severe cold spell or not looks way way better than anything we had in December. Dry, frosty, sunny, foggy, maybe dull, cold or very cold looks likely in the next week. And most importantly, no rain after today's in the north.

Ill take that for now.

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I'm beginning to think this could be a snow free winter for us. Little in the way of any notable cold in the GFS for us once you take Wednesday and Thursday out of things. Going to be difficult to pin the down the weather finer detail due to the high jigging around which will effect how much mild and cold air gets brought into the mix.

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9 minutes ago, The PIT said:

I'm beginning to think this could be a snow free winter for us. Little in the way of any notable cold in the GFS for us once you take Wednesday and Thursday out of things. Going to be difficult to pin the down the weather finer detail due to the high jigging around which will effect how much mild and cold air gets brought into the mix.

I agree with you. 

If we cant have snow.

Then lets have enough rain to top up our water tables. Because if we have a dry winter. Mild dry spring and another hot summer.

We are all in trouble. 

With stand pipes and  a massive increase in water rates.

Increased pressure on farmers to feed and water livestock 

The list goes on.

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Strange New Years Eve,folk walking about in woolly hats,scarfs thick jackets gloves you name it...very strange at 12c! It's as though they need to wear everything they got for xmas at the same time,very weird.

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23 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

if you want no where the snow is it's in  Turkey  remember  a few weeks ago the meto said we could see very cold weather around end of December this is what I think they where seeing but it all moved south and east  ..

Glad i never went there for sunny warm weather .more chance of a sun tan in Glasgow. 

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makes me  sick watching all that snow falling in Turkey and here we have all that mild crap  anyway may i wish all nw  members and staff are very happy prosperous and a piece for new year.  I hope 2019 is a good one for every one 

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On 31/12/2018 at 11:09, Neiller22 said:

Yep. Very little snow i reckon this winter. SSW is utter tosh if u ask me 

No offence, but fortunately no one is asking you lol. There's experts to ask if you want to know about SSW's.

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On 30/12/2018 at 01:23, Frost HoIIow said:

Unfortunately that is true  - In my lifetime there has been more mild than cold Winters in the UK. We do not have a Continental climate. Whilst years ago we did have slightly more frequent colder spells that was it..... slightly. We had the odd big one 46/47...62/63 etc. You could easily add 2009/2010 into that as well as Nov/Dec 2010. But severe spells of Winter weather have always been hard to come by here in the UK - milder has dominated ....you can blame that big body of water to our west. But when we do get proper cold and snow it's all the more satisfying. We will get another big freeze.

Well our Summers are definitely turning more continental like, when was the last truly cool UK summer? Think you have to go back all the way to 1987. The 80's were alot cooler than now and Winters alot more interesting. Even getting cold setups doesn't guarantee you proper cold anymore, the cold pooling just isn't as deep as it once was. All our seasons are getting warmer than normal now, we haven't had a cold Spring in along time either. This winter has been absolutely dreadful, seen many people out in t-shirts it's been that mild. At least things are cooling down now with colder air entering our slug high, only to what you should be getting though, nothing out of the ordinary and the form horse is a slow sinker.

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