Winter weather chat, moans, banter and ramps

[Mapantz]

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

That's a pretty big contrast to here in the east, December was a bit drier then average but a large part of the rainfall total was due to a heavy rain event earlier in the month. January and February however have been really dry with the only decent bit of rain I can remember falling being towards the start of the month.

Given Autumn was only average for rainfall here another dry summer could be very problematic.

Here's a couple of bar charts to illustrate my rainfall:

 

[Derecho]

5 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Here's a couple of bar charts to illustrate my rainfall:

 

Likely to be a consequence of the persistent SW winds, here in Hull the last notably wetter then average month was April 2018 (December was actually slightly wetter then normal but as I say, this came in a small number of heavy rain events).

Edited February 23, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[Weather-history]

Snow in parts of Los Angeles

 

[North-Easterly Blast]

9 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Highly unlikely.

Sustained Easterlies/North Easterlies (3-4 days plus in duration) in Winter across the UK are rare. Once every 5/6 years maybe (on average)?

Many on here need to grasp some basic UK weather realities ahead of next Winter (and future Winters), instead of being sucked in by a few internet 'heroes' saying "It's coming" or "the models are wrong".

1947 saw sustained easterlies for around six to seven weeks across the UK.  1962-63 saw an alternating pattern of easterlies and northerlies for over two months.  1978-79 more or less also saw this pattern for around seven weeks.  So in these examples this pattern has occurred for lengthy spells.  I would put it that sustained easterly spells lasting beyond three to four days across the UK have been an absolute rarity since the late 1980s, but before then they did occur more often, lasting for around one to two weeks when they developed.

Edited February 24, 2019 by North-Easterly Blast

[frosty ground]

9 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

Highly unlikely.

Sustained Easterlies/North Easterlies (3-4 days plus in duration) in Winter across the UK are rare. Once every 5/6 years maybe (on average)?

Many on here need to grasp some basic UK weather realities ahead of next Winter (and future Winters), instead of being sucked in by a few internet 'heroes' saying "It's coming" or "the models are wrong".

So are you asking if that’s the average or telling us? 

[Sunny76]

It’s still not warm enough for the beach. London has been pleasant, but I’ve made the mistake in the past by heading to the beach in mid March, when temps have hit 19 degrees only to be met with cloudy skies and a cold 10-12c with a chilly wind. 

I always wait until at least late March or early April to head to the coast, when temps can be north of 20 degrees and the clocks have gone forward. More chance of warmer temps.

[Sunny76]

On 19/02/2019 at 13:45, James1979 said:

The 1998 record was incredible to experience, especially as it was earlyish in the month too. I was at Reading University studying Meteorology at the time (sadly had to bail on that) and we were out picknicking dressed in shorts and T-shirts, truly remarkable stuff. Time flies!

I don’t wear shorts until at least May or late April. It has to exceed 23 degrees for me to wear shorts. Anything below 21 isn’t warm enough. Think I can handle warmer temps compared for many people. 

[Summer Sun]

What a glorious day it is today very pleasant indeed with the strengthening sunshine very noticeable now

[Bristawl Si]

3 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

1947 saw sustained easterlies for around six to seven weeks across the UK.  1962-63 saw an alternating pattern of easterlies and northerlies for over two months.  1978-79 more or less also saw this pattern for around seven weeks.  So in these examples this pattern has occurred for lengthy spells.  I would put it that sustained easterly spells lasting beyond three to four days across the UK have been an absolute rarity since the late 1980s, but before then they did occur more often, lasting for around one to two weeks when they developed.

Yes, those 3 Winters are probably the most extreme since WW2. V rare, extremely rare. In between the war and today i reck every 5/6 years we have seen easterlies beyond a few days in Winters past.

[Bristawl Si]

3 hours ago, frosty ground said:

So are you asking if that’s the average or telling us? 

It's my 'bag of fag packet' guesstimate (well based on 50+ years of being on this earth); hence i added the ?

Edited February 24, 2019 by Bristle boy

[SLEETY]

3 hours ago, frosty ground said:

So are you asking if that’s the average or telling us? 

You can’t be very old if your asking that or just being awkward,the U.k. rarely has easterly outbreaks lasting more than few days you, could even check that yourself  by looking back through the archives,they go back to 1870 so plenty of opportunity to see that is correct.

Edited February 24, 2019 by SLEETY

[Seasonal Trim]

34 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

It’s still not warm enough for the beach. London has been pleasant, but I’ve made the mistake in the past by heading to the beach in mid March, when temps have hit 19 degrees only to be met with cloudy skies and a cold 10-12c with a chilly wind. 

I always wait until at least late March or early April to head to the coast, when temps can be north of 20 degrees and the clocks have gone forward. More chance of warmer temps.

Was on the beach yesterday, and it was lovely.

[frosty ground]

3 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

It's my 'bag of fag packet' guesstimate (well based on 50+ years of being on this earth); hence i added the ?

So you guessed and then told people they need to accept your guess seems fair 

Edited February 24, 2019 by frosty ground

[Methuselah]

3 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

It's my 'bag of fag packet' guesstimate (well based on 50+ years of being on this earth); hence i added the ?

As one who's lived through even more winters than you have, Bris, all I can do is agree...And the second-best thing to having a photographic memory, is simply to be many years' older than the average youngster?

[Aleman]

The unusually warm weather here is great (max in my bit so far 15.0C but still getting odd bits of frost) but I would have thought the real talking points lie elsewhere. February to date is only running at +2C to +2.5C in the warmer bits of the UK. Western Russia is running at +6C. The Bering Straight is running at +11C - averaged over 23 days !  These are balanced by parts of southern Russia running at -9C and southern Canada/Montana area running at -14C. That would be bad enough for one day but the average of 23 days!? The Jet stream has meandered but in surprisingly stable sort of manner, creating some interesting recent extremes. Meanwhile, the global average for those 23 days of Feb shows only +0.259C, which is nothing worth commenting on of itself.

 

So, it's really hot and it's really cold and it's neither!

https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2019/02/why-americas-northernmost-city-is-having-a-weird-hot-winter/

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/saskatchewan-devastating-cold-80-years-weather-1.5019623

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 24, 2019 by Aleman

[Derecho]

45 minutes ago, Aleman said:

The unusually warm weather here is great (max in my bit so far 15.0C but still getting odd bits of frost) but I would have thought the real talking points lie elsewhere. February to date is only running at +2C to +2.5C in the warmer bits of the UK. Western Russia is running at +6C. The Bering Straight is running at +11C - averaged over 23 days !  These are balanced by parts of southern Russia running at -9C and southern Canada/Montana area running at -14C. That would be bad enough for one day but the average of 23 days!? The Jet stream has meandered but in surprisingly stable sort of manner, creating some interesting recent extremes. Meanwhile, the global average for those 23 days of Feb shows only +0.259C, which is nothing worth commenting on of itself.

 

So, it's really hot and it's really cold and it's neither!

https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2019/02/why-americas-northernmost-city-is-having-a-weird-hot-winter/

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/saskatchewan/saskatchewan-devastating-cold-80-years-weather-1.5019623

 

 

 

 

 

Still a warmer anomaly then February 1998 though which occurred during that huge El Nino. Last El Nino we had was at the start of 2016 and is out of the system now (which saw temps upto 0.5C higher then 1998). Winter global temperature anomalies are more sensitive to synoptic patterns as well as shown by earlier this month following the PV split.

In the context of global temperature variability it doesn't mean that much. This winter will still be in the top 5 globally and that shouldn't be played down, even if February isn't especially notable.

[Snowyowl9]

Colder nights in the south last night lower than GFS showed down to -3c.

First ground frost here this week at 2.6c colder tonight may get an air frost,see what today`s max is.

[Aleman]

12 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Still a warmer anomaly then February 1998 though which occurred during that huge El Nino. Last El Nino we had was at the start of 2016 and is out of the system now (which saw temps upto 0.5C higher then 1998). Winter global temperature anomalies are more sensitive to synoptic patterns as well as shown by earlier this month following the PV split.

In the context of global temperature variability it doesn't mean that much. This winter will still be in the top 5 globally and that shouldn't be played down, even if February isn't especially notable.

The second half of February does seem to be cranking up a bit (perhaps due to the current mild El Nino?). The last week shows +0.452C. Feb is going to finish close to +0.3C at this rate, with a hint of higher for March.

 

 

[Derecho]

26 minutes ago, Aleman said:

The second half of February does seem to be cranking up a bit (perhaps due to the current mild El Nino?). The last week shows +0.452C. Feb is going to finish close to +0.3C at this rate, with a hint of higher for March.

 

 

I don't think the El Nino is impacting global temperatures yet, the upturn in global temperatures through the month is related to northern hemisphere synoptics. If there is an increased amount of mild air advection over Eurasia, global temperatures go upwards because temperatures can be 5C-10C above normal. 

[Snowyowl9]

On ‎24‎/‎02‎/‎2019 at 12:26, SLEETY said:

You can’t be very old if your asking that or just being awkward,the U.k. rarely has easterly outbreaks lasting more than few days you, could even check that yourself  by looking back through the archives,they go back to 1870 so plenty of opportunity to see that is correct.

2009-2010-11 for the young ones pretty darn sustained looking at those charts,NElys mainly,the best sustained for severe cold got to be that E/SE from like February 1985 with a cold high formed just to the north of us,Late march 2013 did that amazingly well,but outside of winter.

1978/79 winds were all over the place what I can make scrolling through.

3 weeks sustained easterlies started further north,beginning to ended on a cold NNE

Longest is February 1986 that I`ve known longest bitter easterlies since 1962-63.

 

Edited February 25, 2019 by Snowyowl9

[SLEETY]

I think outside the winter months long fetch easterlies do seem to last longer than just a few days,same with Northerlies is anyone want to check the archives? sure I can remember persistent Northerly in August not so long ago,? but of course not in the winter month when we most want them. 

That's why is frustrating, that we get these persistent blocked setups with N or E winds but CANNOT In the winter months on a regular enough bases.

Reasons? 

[philglossop]

12 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

2009-2010-11 for the young ones pretty darn sustained looking at those charts,NElys mainly,the best sustained for severe cold got to be that E/SE from like February 1985 with a cold high formed just to the north of us,Late march 2013 did that amazingly well,but outside of winter.

1978/79 winds were all over the place what I can make scrolling through.

3 weeks sustained easterlies started further north,beginning to ended on a cold NNE

Longest is February 1986 that I`ve known longest bitter easterlies since 1962-63.

 

Agree February 1986 was bitterly cold from start- and I remember those Easterlies well walking to school (as a had a head wind most of the walk in!) . It led to a massive snowfall here in Plymouth, the last really big one we’ve had. 

[Weather-history]

Manchester Winter Index 

Formula:  10 x[(number of days with falling sleet/snow) +(number of days with lying snow at 9am) + (number of days with a minima at or below 0C)]  divided by the mean maximum 

2013-14: 7

1988-89: 20

2006-07: 21

1997-98: 25

1974-75: 26

1989-90: 26

2015-16: 28

1973-74: 30

1987-88: 37

2007-08: 37

2016-17: 37

1991-92: 40

1975-76: 41

1999-00: 42

1992-93: 43

2002-03: 44

1994-95: 45

2018-19: 45 (up to 25th Feb)

1998-99: 47

2004-05: 47

2011-12: 47

2001-02: 50

2003-04: 50

2005-06: 59

1979-80: 66

1996-97: 72

2000-01: 77

1993-94: 78

1983-84: 82

2014-15: 82

1982-83: 85

1977-78: 90

1980-81: 90

2017-18: 93

1986-87: 100

2012-13: 102

2008-09: 105

2010-11: 119

1990-91: 126

1995-96: 135

1984-85: 140

1976-77: 141

1981-82: 149

1985-86: 159

2009-10: 197

1978-79: 262

[Snowyowl9]

1973-76 were pretty rubbish winters by the looks.

Seems a bit cooler today yet,cooler air coming in from shawbury lol.

The pick of those years would have to be 1976.

Edited February 26, 2019 by Snowyowl9

[Derecho]

1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

perhaps the coldest April on record coming up..}

Yes and perhaps Huddersfield town will win the premiership....