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Roger J Smith

January 2019 C.E.T. forecast and EWP contests

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I'm expecting a marked downward correction this month, possibly even up to 0.5 degrees. We saw this happen I think in September.. but we will now end up slightly above the average 61-90 figure, a very near average month - but a month of two contrasts.

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4.7c to the 29th

0.9c above the 61 to 90 average
0.3c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

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Sunny Sheffield down to 4.7C +0.4C above average. Rainfall 28.3mm 34.9% of the monthly average.

Probably finish at 4.5C +0.3C so my predication of not having a cold winter still holding true.

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4.6c to the 30th

0.8c above the 61 to 90 average
0.2c above the 81 to 10 average

_________________________________________

Current high this month 8.0c to the 1st

Current low this month 3.3c to the 4th & 5th

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On 28/12/2018 at 21:28, CheesepuffScott said:

4.0C on the dot and 40mm please

 

On 30/12/2018 at 19:29, Walsall Wood Snow said:

4.0c please

 

On 31/12/2018 at 13:17, Norrance said:

4C and 30mms please.

3 members got Jan spot on from what I can see

Apologies if I missed anyone off

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

 

 

3 members got Jan spot on from what I can see

Apologies if I missed anyone off

0.3C out, some better than recent months.  Shame it couldn't have crept under 4.

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On ‎22‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 12:13, JeffC said:

0.5 C and 95 mm please

Guess I am a bus ride away from getting a cigar, good job I don't smoke!

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3.2c here for January, 0.3c below the 1981-2010 average.

Rainfall came in at 27.0mm

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Sunny Sheffield finished on 4.4C +0.2C above average so basically average. Rainfall 28.3mm 34.9% of average.

Daytime temperatures was 0.6C below average while night-time 0.9C above normal.

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No outstandingly mild Januarys during the 2010s, the mildest being 2014 with 5.7  You have to go back to the 1960s to find a decade with its mildest January having a lower CET than this (1969: 5.5)

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We finished on 4.2C, so 0.2C below the 1981-2010 average. Very dry and sunny though. Rainfall was 23.6mm (42%) and sunshine was 76hrs (133%).

What is notable is that only 4 days had more than 1mm of rain, very unusual in a winter month.

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1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

No outstandingly mild Januarys during the 2010s, the mildest being 2014 with 5.7  You have to go back to the 1960s to find a decade with its mildest January having a lower CET than this (1969: 5.5)

Its a strange stat. Here only four out of 10 have been above average, yet 6 out of 10 have had no lying snow at 0900.

The 2000s on the other had 7 Januarys above average but 5 seeing no lying snow.

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The EWP tracker was at 43 mm after 30th, would expect it to finish close to 50 mm counting in yesterday's (mostly southern) additions. When I have a provisional value I will give the interim results for the EWP contest, then confirm on the 5th or 6th when Hadley publishes their final number. 

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/charts/charts.html

 

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1 hour ago, Weather-history said:

No outstandingly mild Januarys during the 2010s, the mildest being 2014 with 5.7  You have to go back to the 1960s to find a decade with its mildest January having a lower CET than this (1969: 5.5)

On the flip side other than January 2010 no outstandingly cold ones either...I think you can put 2014/16 and 18 all in the 'mild' bracket though.

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At 4.0c January 2019 shares the same mean CET with January's: 2017, 1843, 1773, 1751, 1750, 1739, 1722, 1721, 1715, 1714, 1690, 1671, 1666 and 1664.

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At -1.8, that was the coldest 31st of Jan since 1987 (-1.9). 

The top scores for CET according to table of entries, subject to scoring confirmation by J10 ...

 1. CheesepuffScott (31) _____ 4.0 ___ 0.0

 2. WalsallWoodSnow (41) ____4.0 ___ 0.0

 3. Norrance (53) ___________ 4.0 ___ 0.0

 4. Jonathan F. (9) __________ 3.9 ___--0.1

 5. Damianslaw (37) _________3.9 ___--0.1

 6. vizzy2004 (39) ___________4.1 ___+0.1

 7. Man with Beard (63) ______ 4.1 ___+0.1

 8. SteveB (28) _____________4.2 ___+0.2

 9. virtualsphere (36) ________ 3.8 ___--0.2

10. ThunderyWintryShwrs (50)_4.2 ___ +0.2

11. BornFromTheVoid (52) ____3.8 ___--0.2

12. Froze were the days (62)___4.2 ___+0.2

(numbers in brackets are order of entry, and this separates equal errors)

=================================================

Updated scoring report for Normals and consensus

 

Dec 2018 _________________________________ Jan 2019 _______

____FORECAST _ error __ rank __ points ________ FCST __ error __ rank __ points

Consensus_ 5.0 ___ -1.9 _ 32 to 32 _ 52.3 _________3.5 ___ -0.5 ___16 to 18 _ 75.7 to 78.6

1989-2018*_4.9 ___ -2.0 _ 33 to 33 _ 50.8 _________4.7 ___ +0.7 ___21 to 23 _ 68.6 to 71.4

1981-2010__4.6 ___ -2.3 _ 42 to 44 _ 33.8 to 36.9 ___4.4 ___ +0.4 ___14 to 15 _ 80.0 to 81.4

______________________________

Averages _______ abs err ___ rank range __ points range __

Consensus ______ 1.20 _____ 24 to 25 ____ 64.0 to 65.5

1989-2018 _______1.35 _____ 27 to 28 ____ 59.7 to 61.1

1981-2010 _______1.35 _____ 28 to 30 ____ 56.9 to 59.2

__________________________________________________________________

*1989-2018 was 1988-2017 for December. 

This shows that our consensus forecast is slightly improved over the random efforts of recent 30-year averages.

It has been surpassed by almost half the field, where the normals are playing about even with the halfway point of the field.  

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Oh I hadn't realised I was only 0.1 degree out! As expected a very marked downward correction of 0.5 degrees. A very average month masking the fact the first half was very mild and the second half preety cold.

Would like to know what the finishing mean for first 15 days was compared to last 15 days.

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47 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

I just put the new data into my file, so I get 5.3 for 1-16 and 2.5 for 17-31. 

Thanks for these stats, not quite as mild a first half as I thought - had the cold arrived a little earlier given the first 3-4 days of Feb are forecast significantly below average then a finish in the mid 3s might have happened.

Edited by damianslaw

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6 hours ago, Weather-history said:

No outstandingly mild Januarys during the 2010s, the mildest being 2014 with 5.7  You have to go back to the 1960s to find a decade with its mildest January having a lower CET than this (1969: 5.5)

In actual fact there were no outstandingly mild Januarys (CET 6*C and above) between 1932 and 1975.  The mildest January of the 1950s was also 5.5 as well (1957).  The 1940s was not that much different to the 2010s, with the mildest January that decade being 5.8 (1944).

In actual fact apart from 2010, there have not been any other significantly below average Januarys during the 2010s, with the second coldest January of the 2010s still being 3.5 (2013), which is only just below average.

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On 19/01/2019 at 08:42, Weather-history said:

 

This could be one of those odd winter months where the calmer, drier period is  milder than the wetter more unsettled  part.

 

That's what happened. 

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Hadley EWP tracker finished the month now at 46 mm. The official contest validation awaits the table entry on the fifth or sixth of February (last year it was later, perhaps holiday time for whoever attends this task, so we may find ourselves waiting again). In any case, it won't be far from this tracker estimate, so here are the closest forecasts in current order of merit. This could change slightly in the final version. 

Update (5th 8 p.m.) _ Hadley EWP daily numbers add up to 46.9 mm. No total has been posted yet but I expect it will be very close to this total. Using 46.9 mm, this would be the outcome ... check back tomorrow as this table may be confirmed or edited slightly again, and the excel file of all scoring will be added on so you can see all the results. 

January 2019 EWP provisional scoring (top 15) _ based on 46.9 mm

rank _ Forecaster ______________ fcst _ error __ Points

 1. Thundery Wintry Showers ____ 48.0 (+1.1) ___ 10.0

 2. daniel* ___________________ 45.0 (-1.9) _____ 9.8

 3. Mulzy (2nd entry at 45) ______ 45.0 (-1.9) ______9.7

 4. pegg24 ___________________ 50.0 (+3.1) _____ 9.4

 5. Born from the Void (2nd entry) _ 50.0 (+3.1) _____ 9.3

T6. seaside 60 (1 day late) _______ 42.0 (-4.9) _____ 8.8

T6. Ultima Thule _______________ 53.0 (+6.1) _____ 8.8

 8. CheesepuffScott _____________40.0 (-6.9) _____ 8.6

 9. Blast from the Past (2nd entry) _ 40.0 (-6.9) ______8.5

10. Leo97t ____________________ 55.0 (+8.9) _____ 8.2

11. Don __ (2nd entry at 55) ______ 55.0 (+8.9) _____ 8.1

12. Radiating Dendrite ___________56.0 (+9.1) _____ 7.8

13. weather26 __ (2nd entry) ______56.0 (+9.1) _____ 7.7

14. weather-history ______________37.0 (-9.9) ______7.4

15. Roger J Smith _______________58.5 (+11.6) ____ 7.2

(16. Bobd29____________________35.0 (-11.9) _____ 7.0

17. vizzy2004 __ (2nd entry) ______ 35.0 (-11.9) _____ 6.9)

__________________________________________________________

top 12 annual standings after two months (provisional)

1. Blast from the Past _____________ 18.7

2. Thundery wintry showers ________ 17.0

3. seaside60 ____________________ 16.4

t4 Roger J Smith _________________16.1

t4 weather-history ________________ 16.1

6. Born from the Void _____________ 16.0

7. Mulzy ________________________15.9

8. Don _________________________ 15.5

t9 vizzy2004 ____________________ 15.0

t9 Reef ________________________ 15.0

11. Feb91Blizzard ________________14.8

12. daniel* ______________________14.1

(then a drop down to 11.7 for 13th place overall). 

Edited by Roger J Smith
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21 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

Hadley EWP tracker finished the month now at 46 mm. 

Looks like the driest January since 2006

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Monthly

As mentioned above, 3 correct entries this month.

CheesepuffScott, Walsall Wood Snow and Norrance

image.thumb.png.c49a07749965ccc90a42378c21d2ea14.png

Seasonal and Overall

A new Top 3 Froze were the Days, CheesepuffScott and SteveB 

image.thumb.png.2eafef2a14280cb53d918a6f8260a3be.pngimage.thumb.png.95dcf6e41f775769cdf9d67093f35a89.png

Excel Spreadsheet

Jan 19 CET.xlsx

Edited by J10
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