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January 2019 C.E.T. forecast and EWP contests


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

1.7 and 58.5 mm -- obviously it will need to freeze hard after mid-month.

Just a heads up, I won't be able to post a summary at midnight or any time on 1st, will try for early 2nd but having read the entries to this point, I estimate 3.8 and 50 mm as consensus of very large ranges of forecasts. Happy new year to all.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
4 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

1.7 and 58.5 mm -- obviously it will need to freeze hard after mid-month.

Just a heads up, I won't be able to post a summary at midnight or any time on 1st, will try for early 2nd but having read the entries to this point, I estimate 3.8 and 50 mm as consensus of very large ranges of forecasts. Happy new year to all.

I won't complain with that CET, Roger!  As you say, if we get that low, we will have one heck of a cold spell during the month.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
15 minutes ago, Don said:

I won't complain with that CET, Roger!  As you say, if we get that low, we will have one heck of a cold spell during the month.

Certainly the potential is there, provided the effects of the SSW and forcing over the Pacific play ball in delivering a powerful pull of cold air from the Pole for a significant period of time. The start of the month will be preety chilly as well - there is no especially mild weather on the horizon compared to the last week.

Equally there is potential for another above average month if the above doesn't come to fruition, or the cold is delayed until the very latter part of the month, after an atlantic interlude.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire

Time for my January 2019 CET guess.  One of those extremely difficult months that could go either way.  However, I will go for 3.7C and 55mm, please.  Obviously, if we have some significant cold weather later in the month, the CET will likely be somewhat lower, but I'm going to remain conservative.

Happy New Year all!

Edited by Don
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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Difficult one to call...the signs are there with the global models and SSW, but for a month long/longish cool/cold/very cold spell would be pushing it. So I'm expecting some cold but how long it last's is the question - 4.2c for me

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

1.7 and 58.5 mm -- obviously it will need to freeze hard after mid-month.

Just a heads up, I won't be able to post a summary at midnight or any time on 1st, will try for early 2nd but having read the entries to this point, I estimate 3.8 and 50 mm as consensus of very large ranges of forecasts. Happy new year to all.

Happy New year Roger, thanks for all your hard work and input on here.

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)

Right it’s 3.1c for me...

A cold ? second half to Jan and a very cold end ❄️

Cheers..HNY?

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

On time forecasts received ...

... got a bit of time to compile this, format is a bit different, showing how EWP forecasts correlate with CET. 

... numbers in brackets show order of entry (for CET).

Forecaster _____ CET __ EWP ____________ Forecaster ____ CET __ EWP

Lett Gutted __ (4) _ 9.5 __ 200  ____________ ladyofthestorm(25)_3.6

syed2878 __(24) _ 6.5 __ 90.5 _____________DR(S)NO ___ (14) _ 3.5 ___ 85

coldest w __ (40) _ 6.5 ___________________ wx-history __(44) _ 3.5 ___ 37 

Relativistic _ (34) _ 6.1 __ 140 _____________ Duncan McA (56)_ 3.5

Jason M ___ (22) _ 6.0 ___ --- _____________ Kentish Man (45) _ 3.4 

IRAtl 252 ___ (1) _ 5.9 __ 165 _____________ pegg24 ____ (16) _ 3.3 ___ 50

Timmytour __(29) _ 5.9 __ 145 _____________ doctor32 ___ (42) _ 3.3 ___ 30 

stewfox ____ (26) _ 5.5 __ 125 _____________ DAVID SNOW (61) _3.3 ___ 33

iapennell ___ (23) _ 5.2 __ 100 _____________ Let it Snow! _ (3) _ 3.2 ___ 27*

Eve Star ___ (30) _ 5.2 __ 122 _____________ nn2013 ____ (20) _ 3.2 

The PIT ____ (10) _ 5.0 ___ 95 _____________brmbrmcar __ (11) _ 3.1 __ 90.1

summer sun_(35) _ 5.0 ___ --- _____________ dami _______ (13) _ 3.1 __ 23 

BFTP _____ (38) _5.0 ___ 40 ______________ stat front ___ (43) _ 3.1 ___ 76

Ultima Thule (64)_ 5.0 ___ 53 ______________ Mulzy _____ (51) _ 3.1 ___ 45

stargazer __ (32) _ 4.9 ___ 89 _____________ dwithwings _ (66) _ 3.1 

Mark Bayley (60) _ 4.9 ___ --- _____________ Quicksilver _ (46) _3.0

weather26 _ (6) __ 4.8 ___ 56 _____________ Feb91blizz _ (58) _2.9 ___ 66

reef ______ (48) _ 4.6 ___ 62 ______________Bobd29 _____(7) _2.8 ___ 35

_ normals 4.7, 4.4 __ 95.8, 93.0 ____________ SLEETY ___ (21) _ 2.8 ___ 60

J10 _______(67)_ 4.5 __ 100 ______________sundog ____ (49) _2.8 

Ed Stone __ (27) _ 4.4 ___ 82 _____________ MidIceAge _ (65) _2.8 ___ 60 

SteveB ____ (28) _4.2 __ 136 _____________ Kirkcaldy wx (15) _ 2.5 __ 78.6

TWS ______ (50)_4.2 ___ 48 ______________ crewe cold _ (17) _ 2.4

Froze..days (62) _ 4.2 ___ ---- ______________ Godber.1 __ (54) _ 2.4 ___ 66

vizzy2004 _ (39) _ 4.1 ___ 35 _______________Leo97t ____ (55) _ 2.2 ___ 55

Man wBeard (63)_ 4.1___ --- _______________ snowray __ (47) _ 2.1

CheesepuffS (31)_4.0 ___ 40 ______________  jonboy ___ (33) _ 1.9 ___ 90

WalsallWS _ (41) _ 4.0 __ --- ________________Polar Gael (12) _ 2.0 __ 100.2

Norrance __ (53) _4.0 ___ 30 _______________ Roger J S (57) _ 1.7 ___ 58.5

Jonathan F. _ (9) _ 3.9 ___ --- ______________ Rad Dendrite (2)_1.5 ___ 56

Damianslaw (37) _ 3.9 ___ --- ______________ Jeff C _____ (19)_ 0.5 ___ 95

virtualsphere (36) _3.8 ___ 84 ______________ daniel* _____ (8) _--0.3 ___ 45

BFTVoid ___ (52) _3.8 ___ 50 ______________ prolonged s.l. (18) _--0.5

Don ______ (59) _ 3.7 ___ 55 ______________ Optimus Prime_(5)_--1.2

__________________________________________

* (let it snow precip 27mm added after 40th CET forecast)

Normals are listed in order of 1989-2018 then 1981-2010. 

Consensus of 67 CET forecasts is 3.7, and of 48 EWP forecasts, 60 mm. 

Edited by Roger J Smith
adding one missed EWP forecast (pegg24), changing one error (Reef 52 mm to 62 mm)
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Posted
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Cool clear sunny weather all year.
  • Location: Shoeburyness, SE Essex

Missed again so first of the late entries.

Bit of a gamble on present conditions.

2.7c

42mm

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet

A late forecast for me but i shall go for 2.8C, coldest month since Dec 10.

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Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol

5.6c and 72mm please

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
5 hours ago, Leo97t said:

Does anyone know what the largest gap between consecutive cet months is? 

1954/1955 fell from 6.8 to below 3.

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Posted
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
  • Location: Leeds/Bradford border, 185 metres above sea level, around 600 feet
5 hours ago, Leo97t said:

Does anyone know what the largest gap between consecutive cet months is? 

Having had a check, December 1828 saw a CET of 7.4C and January then saw a CET of 0.3C.

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Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
1 hour ago, summer blizzard said:

Having had a check, December 1828 saw a CET of 7.4C and January then saw a CET of 0.3C.

Funnily enough November 1828 also had a CET of 7.4c  and as I pointed out in the December CET thread, both November and December 1827 both had a CET of 6.9c. So there's an interesting little quirk that both Nov and Dec 1827 ended up with the same CET, as well as Nov and Dec 1828. The only other times that has happened were 1675 both at 4.5c, 1687 both at 6.0c, 1702 both at 4.4c and 1905 both at 4.9c. There were a fair few other years though where the difference in the two months was as little as 0.1c. 

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