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January 2019 C.E.T. forecast and EWP contests


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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Hadley EWP posted their daily numbers earlier today but so far I don't see the total for January posted on their website. They have revised Nov-Dec 2018 in the table where that should appear. As explained earlier, this revision is a normal procedure of theirs but I am only going to count the first posted numbers for contest scoring. 

The daily numbers add up to 46.9 mm if you add rounded off one decimal values, and 46.8 mm if you add up the two decimals and round off the total. So having done that, I guess I will find out how they do it when they post a value. 

I have the excel file ready from 46.9 and there would be only a few minor changes if 46.8 turns out to be in use. The lists published above have changed slightly even with that small difference in the January amount, as the leaders in both monthly and annual scoring were tightly bunched. I will edit that list to 46.9 mm next. Then I will post the excel file link when I know for certain what the January value is. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

There is still no posting of an official EWP total, just the daily numbers which I discussed in the previous post. 

As I will be off-line now for most of the day, I will at least put up the excel file with 46.9 mm used to determine scoring. I don't see any scores that would be different using 46.8 mm. (edit Feb 14th _ scores adjusted to 46.8 mm).

Hoping to clear this up later, usually the official number appears on the 5th but whatever, we have the daily values and they add up to the value I use. This is a pretty busy little excel file but it's explained in the section above the large gold coloured divider, and basically all of your data are in the same row, including some things like last year's total score and rankings. 

Note, it seems to open up to a section off to the right of the main scoring summary, go to A1 in the file to find the orientation section and A21 for the scoring section.

If this becomes official I will just edit in that fact, but if necessary I will update the file and repost it (edit Feb 14th, this has now happened, excel link is in the next post).

Edited by Roger J Smith
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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Well, somebody just came back from holiday I think, the Hadley EWP number is finally confirmed in the tables as 46.8 mm.

The excel file has been adjusted (it was provisional on 46.9) and the only change to scoring is that two ranks are now tied that had been separated (in the T21 rank for average error). 

So it's now official, the monthly top five were Thundery Wintry Showers (48 mm) with 10.0 points, then Daniel (45 mm) with 9.8 and Mulzy (second in with 45 mm) at 9.7. Pegg24 was fourth at 50 mm (9.4 pts) and Born from the Void fifth (also 50 mm, second entry) with 9.3.

The current top 12 in the annual contest after two months are then

Blast from the Past _______ 18.5

Thundery Wintry Showers __ 17.1

seaside60 _______________16.8

weather-history ___________16.1

Roger J Smith ____________16.1

Born from the Void ________ 16.0

Mulzy __________________ 15.9

Don ____________________15.5

vizzy2004 _______________ 15.0

Reef ___________________ 15.0

Feb1991Blizzard __________14.8

Daniel*__________________14.1

________________________________________________________

Excel file with all scoring ...

 

EWP20182019b.xlsx

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