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Roger J Smith

January 2019 C.E.T. forecast and EWP contests

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(a) January CET forecast contest

__ __ averages and extremes __ __

(including all CET values since 1981) 

 

11.6 .. warmest daily CET mean (3rd, 1932 and 23rd, 1834 and 25th, 2016)

 8.0 ..
 7.9
 7.8
 7.7
 7.6
 7.5 ... warmest January (1916)
 7.4
 7.3 ... second warmest (1796 & 1921)
 7.2
 7.1 ... fourth warmest (1834)

 7.0 ... fifth warmest, and warmest since 1921 (2007)
 6.9 ... sixth warmest (1733)
 6.8 ... seventh warmest (1975 CET, followed joint warmest Dec)
 6.7 ... eighth warmest (1983)
 6.6 ... tied ninth warmest (1898, 2008)
 6.5 ... tied eleventh warmest (1686, 1884, 1990)
 6.4 ... tied fourteenth warmest (1736, 1875)
 6.3 ... tied sixteenth warmest (1846, 1932)
 6.2 ... eighteenth warmest (1737)
 6.1 ... nineteenth warmest (1989)
 
 6.0 ... three tied for 20th warmest (1682, 1708, 2005)
 5.9 ... four tied for 23rd warmest (1759, 1974, 1976, 1993)
 5.8 ... three tied for 27th warmest (1804, 1866, 1944)
 5.7 .. 2014 (tied with 1890, 1938 as 30th warmest)
 5.6 ..
 5.5 .. 1999, 2002
 5.4 .. 2012, 2016
 5.3 .. 1988, 1994, 2018

 5.2 .. 1998, 2004
 5.1 ..

 5.0 ..
 4.9 .. 1981, 2000
 4.8 .. 1995

 4.7 .. --- average 1989-2018 --- ... also --- average 2001-2018 ---

 4.6 .. --- average 1991-2018 ---

 4.5 .. 2003
 4.4 .. --- average 1981-2010 ----- and also 2015

 ... ... ... -- also average 1898-1927 and 1910-1939 -- (warmth not reached again until 1979 to 2008)
 4.3 .. 1996, 2006
 4.2 .. --- average 1971-2000 -----
 4.1 ..

 4.0 .. 2017
 3.9 .. --- average 1901-2000 ----
 3.8 .. --- average 1961-1990 ----- and also 1984
 3.7 .. 1992, 2011
 3.6 ...
 3.5 .. 1986, 2013
 3.4 ..
 3.3 .. --- average 1659-2018 ----- and also 1991
 3.2 .. 2001

 3.1 .. --- average 1939-1968 --- (lowest 30-year average since 1881-1910)

 3.0 ... --- average 1801-1900 ---- and also 2009
 2.9 .. --- average 1701-1800 ----
 2.8 ..
 2.7
 2.6 ... --- average 1659-1700 ---- and also 1982
 2.5 .. 1997
 2.4 .. --- average 1760-1839 --- (the longest interval for which this was maintained)
 2.3 ..

 2.2 ..
 2.1 ...

 2.0 ... --- average 1766 to 1795 --- coldest 30-year average
 1.9 ..
 1.8 ..
 1.7 ...
 1.6 ...
 1.5 ...
 1.4 ... coldest past 28 yrs (2010) -- tied 64th coldest with 1744
 1.3 ...
 1.2 ...
 1.1 ..
 
 1.0 ...
 0.9 ...
 0.8 ... coldest past 31 yrs (1985, 1987) -- tied joint 41st coldest with 1768.
 0.7 ...
 0.6 ...
 0.5 ...
 0.4 ...
 0.3 ...
 0.2 ...
 0.1 ...

 0.0 ... four tied at 21st coldest (1660, 1667,1694,1698)
-0.1 ... twentieth coldest (1823)
-0.2 ... nineteenth coldest (1830)
-0.3 ... eighteenth coldest (1820)
-0.4 ... seventeenth coldest, and last subzero January (1979)
-0.5
-0.6 ... sixteenth coldest (1784)
-0.7 ... fifteenth coldest (1879)
-0.8 ... fourteenth coldest (1763)
-0.9 ... thirteenth coldest (1780)

-1.0 ... twelfth coldest (1695)
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4 ... eleventh coldest (1940)
-1.5 ... tied for eighth coldest (1709, 1838, 1881)
-1.6 ... seventh coldest (1776) ... six days end of this month were all record low CET values
-1.7
-1.8
-1.9

-2.0 ... sixth coldest (1716)
-2.1 ... fifth coldest, and coldest of 20th century (1963)
-2.2
-2.3
-2.4
-2.5
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8 ... fourth coldest (1740)
-2.9 ... third coldest (1814)

-3.0 ... second coldest (1684)
-3.1 ... coldest January or month (1795)

-7.7 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean past 30 yrs (12th, 1987)
-8.4 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean in past 149 yrs (23rd, 1963)

      -- this was the coldest day in any month and in any Jan since -9.3 on 4 Jan 1867)

-11.9 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean, 20th 1838

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Enter the temperature forecast contest by end of day Monday, 31 December (2018) or with increasing time penalties on the first three days of January 2019. 

 

(Optional) Precip forecast contest

-- Predict the January precipitation (snowfall liquid equivalent so for every 10 cm of snow, 10 mm precip on average), the standard we are using for this contest is the Hadley England and Wales Precip (EWP) and here are the averages and extremes (the period of record is 1766 to present) ...

184.6 .. wettest January (2014)

176.8 .. 2nd wettest Jan (1948)

 95.8 .. --- average 1989-2018 ---

 93.0 .. --- average 1981-2010 ---

 16.5 .. driest January in recent past (1997) -- 5th driest since these records started in 1766

 15.3 .. second driest January on record (1779)

 04.4 .. driest January (1766)

Notes: The recent past has seen several quite wet months besides 2014, 1988 (169.0 mm) was third wettest, 1995 (162.6 mm) was fourth wettest, and 2016 (149.5 mm) was 8th wettest. Last year was a slightly wetter than average 104.5 mm, while 2017 produced 79.6 mm and 2015 had 101.0 mm. Dry Januaries have been rare in recent decades. Aside from 1997, the only cases since 1981 to record 40 mm or less include 1987 with 33.9 mm, and 2006 with 31.9 mm. 

To enter the precip contest, forecast the England and Wales precip for Jan 2019, to nearest mm (and tenth if desired). You can add this to your temperature forecast or place it in a separate post. 

Scoring was updated last month, basically the closest forecast scores 10.0, then all the rest are scored off a sliding scale. Late penalties are 0.2 per day. Duplicate entries lose just 0.1 each time they occur ... that's similar to the CET scoring, but if you happen to tie another forecast by absolute error (different error signs) you'll receive the same score regardless of when you entered (if not late).

Good luck ... link to all of the Hadley precip data follows ...

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/data/ranked_monthly/HadEWP_ranked_mly.txt

(deadlines same as CET forecast contest, enter by end of 31st Dec 2018 without penalty, or during first three days of Jan 2019, when late penalties of 0.2 / 10 apply. )

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mild, dominated by the Atlantic, very wet at times, 5.9C

EWP 165 mm

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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9.5C  :oldsad:  Last sub -3.0C January in 1795.  Last sub -2.0C and sub -1.0C January in 1963.  Last sub 0C January in 1979.  Last sub 1C January in 1987.  Last sub 2C, last sub 3C and last sub 3.5C January in 2010.

200mm of Atlantic garbage

Edited by Lettucing Gutted

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Get the feeling the jigsaw pieces will fall into place at the end of Dec/Early Jan. The cold probably persisting for much of the month too.

-1.2°C but more than likely subject to changd

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Okay then - let's go for it - 0.4C and 47 mm...half a metre of snow for favoured parts of East Anglia!😁

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Surely this could be the big one? Last subzero one 1979 eh going for -0.3C first time I’ve gone subzero ever.

45mm

Edited by Daniel*
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Going for 5C so just a mild month. 95mm of rain.

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2.0C and 100.2mm for me please. 

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2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Okay then - let's go for it - 0.4C and 47 mm...half a metre of snow for favoured parts of East Anglia!😁

For the entries, can you confirm you want +0.4 C not --0.4 C (taking the - as punctuation)? Thanks. 

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Just now, Roger J Smith said:

For the entries, can you confirm you want +0.4 C not --0.4 C (taking the - as punctuation)? Thanks. 

Sorry Roger...+0.4!:santa-emoji:

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 3.1c 😞 23mm 😞

no snow. 

😞

 

Edited by Dami
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0.5 C and 95 mm please

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