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Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas


Message added by Paul

If you're hunting for cold potential in the model output, this thread is for you. But if you'd like to look more widely at the models, please head over to the general model discussion thread.

This is a model related thread, so a general, frequent theme of the model output is a given, but it will not be strictly enforced:

  • Some topic drift, humorous responses etc are fine
  • Posts likely to lead the thread off on an entirely off topic tangent are not ok. For example (but not solely limited to): Posts entirely or mainly about Met Office, BBC or media forecasts with little or no model context, and posts solely asking for a weather forecast in a specific location.
  • Posts which start with something like 'I know this is off topic but ...' are not ok.
  • Posts which break the forum guidelines are not ok (eg trolling, troll-hunting, weather guilt tripping, overly defensive/aggressive, abusive, disrespectful to others)

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9 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

It's still the model output thread, should we move all SSW related posts into the SSW threads as well?  

No, because its still model output and its in relation to a potential cold spell so it belongs in here.

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4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

But SSW can 70% of the time bring cold weather to NW Europe. So I think it’s ok in the hunt for cold . I think what Nicks trying to say is if it’s normal weather output rain/mild then just go to the other thread . I thought that was the whole idea . ?

Shouldn't people be allowed to post what they like provided they have backing? If not then perhaps the thread should be renamed 'post cold charts and speculate thread'. I presume the majority of people are hunting for cold on here and are simply posting a chart to say what's going on.

I don't believe there is anything wrong with that and many people viewing this thread will be looking to find out what the models are showing as well as looking for signs of cold.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

No, because its still model output and its in relation to a potential cold spell so it belongs in here.

But surely interpretation of model output is also important in relation to a potential cold spell?

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This is what we need to see before we can pop the corks.

post-4523-1232614323.gif

For such an impressive stratospheric chart, it didn't produce that spectacular blocking at the 500hpa level, it has to be said. Enough to deliver the goods but predictions of a frigid February at the time failed in the end.

 

 

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16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC noticeable different to GFS 168-

HP much further N ..

Looks a lot better NWS. 

22B01898-8CE0-44F7-AAC9-DA00950E7401.png

@Quicksilver1989 I do see your point buts it’s like me going in knocks thread lol and posting winter heaven charts . Some people just do it in here to start a forum riot lol 

Edited by ICE COLD
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1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

For such an impressive stratospheric chart, it didn't produce that spectacular blocking at the 500hpa level, it has to be said. Enough to deliver the goods but predictions of a frigid February at the time failed in the end.

 

 

Correct, following a cold start with lots of snow for London and the south east, the 2nd half of the month was exceptionally mild.  February 2009 had a CET of 4.1C, very close to the 71-00 average.

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27 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

It's still the model output thread, should we move all SSW related posts into the SSW threads as well?  

Aye QS: all strat-related stuff should go into the Strat thread; all SSW stuff, into the SSW thread; any anything remotely realistic should got anywhere but here...In addition, no-one's allowed to post any charts that precede the first 'expert-verified' bona fide snow event...?

Disnae leave much, does it!:help:

Edit: The GFS Para comes to the rescue!?

Netweather GFS Image

Edited by Ed Stone
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11 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

But surely interpretation of model output is also important in relation to a potential cold spell?

Yes, i agree, and there is nothing wrong with commenting on each suite as it comes out but there is no point in just saying 'oh well no snow for another week' and just posting a nailed on D7 chart as we know that anyway, there is actually some snowy signal at the back end of GEFS FI, so its untrue to say there is not any sign, regardless of it being strat influenced or not.

10 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

For such an impressive stratospheric chart, it didn't produce that spectacular blocking at the 500hpa level, it has to be said. Enough to deliver the goods but predictions of a frigid February at the time failed in the end.

 

 

It disn't deliver in mine (salford then) or your location but vertually the whole Eastern half of the British isles got battered.

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12_192_mslp500arc.png?cb=899 192_mslp500_arc.png?cb=899 

Points of note comparing GFS (left) with ECM (right):

Pacific pattern more like expected with increasingly amplified trough-ridge combination (PNA looking much more as anticipated).
Atlantic sector also more amplified, perhaps still a little short of what's feasible but a pretty decent effort at this range.
Tropospheric polar vortex pattern more 'mangled' and free if crazily intense LP systems. None of the 'two giant lobes resisting the split' business that GFS depicts.


ECM, please genuinely prove to be king...!

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Is EC going to get that high north enough at 240?

Its still an improvement anyway, look at the evolution from 192 to 216, because of what Nick Sussex is saying, look at how slow moving that trough to the South of Greenland becomes, the Atlantic would be much more slow and held back if it went out further than 240.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, i agree, and there is nothing wrong with commenting on each suite as it comes out but there is no point in just saying 'oh well no snow for another week' and just posting a nailed on D7 chart as we know that anyway, there is actually some snowy signal at the back end of GEFS FI, so its untrue to say there is not any sign, regardless of it being strat influenced or not.

It disn't deliver in mine (salford then) or your location but vertually the whole Eastern half of the British isles got battered.

Yes some cold charts have been appearing later on, mostly in the form of NW'lies which are dragging cold uppers from Greenland and giving a little sharp cold blast. I think we will have to be patient if the high over Europe struggles to shift as it can take a while for the SSW to take hold (if things materialise).

I'm particularly optimistic about the second half of this winter if the SSW really falls our way. El Nino winters generally have lower SLP over the Azores during their second half and that may serve to increase our cold chances too. We may just have to endure some boring winter weather for a little bit.  

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Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yes some cold charts have been appearing later on, mostly in the form of NW'lies which are dragging cold uppers from Greenland and giving a little sharp cold blast. I think we will have to be patient if the high over Europe struggles to shift as it can take a while for the SSW to take hold (if things materialise).

I'm particularly optimistic about the second half of this winter if the SSW really falls our way. El Nino winters generally have lower SLP over the Azores during their second half and that may serve to increase our cold chances too. We may just have to endure some boring winter weather for a little bit.  

Yes, and don't forget the NW flow can easily become a proper N'ly as well.

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Quite a lot of differences upstream between the ECM and GFS .

Early on we saw another irritation pop up on the former , if you look at the low sw of Greenland , the small shortwave to its east stops the high from edging further nw and flattens the pattern out . Essentially we need a bit more amplitude and a cleaner trough set up to the west .

Without that the high would have been further north at day 6.

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24 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

For such an impressive stratospheric chart, it didn't produce that spectacular blocking at the 500hpa level, it has to be said. Enough to deliver the goods but predictions of a frigid February at the time failed in the end.

 

 

Yes, disappointing, altough it was a split and a dSSW (downward SSW).

lijst avn ssws.PNG

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12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Is EC going to get that high north enough at 240?

I'll tell you one thing NWS when it does move it can be very quick. Some of our classic spells have seen euro slugs morph into Greeny or Scandi highs in two/three days and at short notice too.

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6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Call it weather enthusiast intuition, but I don’t think the GFS has a scooby doo!

I doubt it'll surprise anyone, if I say that I prefer the FV3's evolution to that of the old version...a twelve-hour-long winter is better than no winter at all?:santa-emoji:

IMO, the models are not alone in their all being pretty clueless just now...?:help:

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12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Got a feeling that the ECM 240 might show a bigger split PV at 10mb

It’s much of a muchness - no bigger .... lower down there are some changes as the vortex splits and bends around towards the East Asian vortice ..... less energy pushing into e Europe .... I wonder if the extended eps are going to show a relaxation of the low heights to our ne later on 

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