Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

[Singularity]

Based on the strat evolutions and widespread expectation that ECM should have this right with the sufficient split about a week sooner than GFS, there’s little value in looking at GFS output past D5 at the mo. D14+ should see signs of any quick split vortex response in that model but it’s so far out... need I say more?

So ECM’s the best guidance I believe. Of great interest to see signs of trop response to the split D9-D10 of the 00z.

[Methuselah]

So that's why...Nowt but a bit of scatter, after January 3rd!

[karlos1983]

The GFS 10hpa charts this morning certainly have that look of a dog coming back with it’s  tail between it’s  legs. A welcomed relief! It’s got some catching up to do over the next few runs.. The walk of shame in modelling terms  

Edited December 23, 2018 by karlos1983

[Stuie]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’m cautious - looking back at the feb charts, we saw a response in the modelling around five days before the reversal for the period 18/22 feb. This turned out to be progressive..... so although the models may well begin to show some impressive fi coldie output by Tuesday, the dates of this shouldn’t be taken too seriously at that stage ....

Hi Blue, was this the catalyst for our exceptional summer? If so could we get into that position with this SSW, i.e. so blocked out that we end up high and dry?

[Johnp]

15 minutes ago, Shunter said:

I think today is going to see the start of some mouthwatering charts. The zonal mean zonal wind at 10 hPa 60N at midnight is (GFS analysis): 27.3 m/s . Its going to drop like a stone for the next few days , we await the Trop response.

And we have the Xmas data issues to look forward to (I'll get my coat).

[January Snowstorm]

How is this possible event looking compared to the warming back in February??

I remember back then a lot of talk beforehand about it being a biggy which of course it was.....

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

And we have the Xmas data issues to look forward to (I'll get my coat).

How could I have forgotten those, JP...Will it be aircraft or balloons, this time...Drones even?

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Hi Blue, was this the catalyst for our exceptional summer? If so could we get into that position with this SSW, i.e. so blocked out that we end up high and dry?

Certainly contributed but a+ b never equals c

7 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Based on the strat evolutions and widespread expectation that ECM should have this right with the sufficient split about a week sooner than GFS, there’s little value in looking at GFS output past D5 at the mo. D14+ should see signs of any quick split vortex response in that model but it’s so far out... need I say more?

So ECM’s the best guidance I believe. Of great interest to see signs of trop response to the split D9-D10 of the 00z.

Unless you have the time to trawl through 50 eps members on the NH view, trying to see a QTR on the ecm suite is pretty painful - imo, the best (and easiest) illustration will come from the day 10 spreads - given that the reversal is progged day 7, we are just about in range so next few runs may reveal something 

[Stuie]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Certainly contributed but a+ b never equals c

 

I know and very politically put 

[MattStoke]

The winter of waiting. It’s a shame I have no patience!

Feels like I’ve been waiting a lifetime for the models to agree on strat developments. Never mind the trop response.

[feb1991blizzard]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Certainly contributed but a+ b never equals c

Unless you have the time to trawl through 50 eps members on the NH view, trying to see a QTR on the ecm suite is pretty painful - imo, the best (and easiest) illustration will come from the day 10 spreads - given that the reversal is progged day 7, we are just about in range so next few runs may reveal something 

Any QTR in my opinion that you will see on the ens will only be wedge like ridging or transient until we see a proper definitive seperation of the lobes in the strat, of course that may already be modelled on some individual members but until the means show this, you wont see anything glaring that screams SSW response, then and only then will you also see huge amounts of them falling off the cliff on the graph and flatlining.

[markw2680]

23 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So that's why...Nowt but a bit of scatter, after January 3rd!

If only we could get a few more down towards that -10 line

[Ali1977]

4 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

If only we could get a few more down towards that -10 line

Need to the mean to get below -5c , that in FI would be an impressive signal. 

Sone wild swings are possible any day now.

Edited December 23, 2018 by Ali1977

[Weathizard]

The high is displaced further to the west at day 10 on the GFS, an interesting chart to start the new year..... monster high pressure system is that looks like it may have an opportunity to ridge northwards soon after

[nick sussex]

59 minutes ago, beerandkebab said:

ever thought about a house swap Nick?.....I fancy a week in the SW of France, especially with an easterly feed setting up there and cold T850's knocking on the door.....I'd even throw in some pickled onion monster munch and a dairylea dunkable as a tempter?  ho ho ho 

You should be here now , it’s almost barbecue weather ! I’m debating whether to ditch the turkey as it’s currently deck chair weather !

Its expected to turn a bit colder but nothing major at the moment . It’s a very poor start to the skiing season and that high needs to be nuked ASAP!

[ICE COLD]

10 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

The high is displaced further to the west at day 10 on the GFS, an interesting chart to start the new year..... monster high pressure system is that looks like it may have an opportunity to ridge northwards soon after

Yep gets there in the end . Variation of a theme in FI lately

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep gets there in the end . Variation of a theme in FI lately

Those uppers look a bit marginal...

[Methuselah]

Looking good...Models are starting to smell the coffee. No java just yet, though?

[Ali1977]

Different run coming here, high better oriented to allow a cold polar flow then hopefully something epic later on .

[Polar Maritime]

Ridge reaching for the Pole at the end of the 6z..

 

[swfc]

6z gfs, bit of a Steelers wheel job "high to the left of me high to the right,here I am stuck in the middle with you"!! Decent run tho

[MR EXTREMES]

did i say around the 7th of january give or take few days.

that segment of the polar vortex will undoubtedly send heights out to our west and northwest.

and some very extreme weather lurking.

ecm more complicated but if we were able to run on another 5 days then possibly different way to cold but plausible.

all i do know is there's gaps for northern blocking to our north even possibly into southern greenland iceland with lower heights running underneath.

at the moment there a little more consistency because the overall pattern is already a mid latitude block over the uk,

with a reversal and possible a split the odds on colder weather are growing.

although not yet 100% but id go 70/30 in favour of cold most likely i believe from the north.

but as i said i wouldn't discount the ecm model.

gfs also now looking at heights to our west perhaps north west deep segment of the polar vortex or lows into scandi area and much of eastern europe. once again some extreme weather lurking.

and also the developing low just north of the uk.

2009/2010 ring any bells.

next thing you know the whole country was eclipsed by wintry weather with jet stream being pushed ever further south.

by the 5th of january we are almost at the cusp of something truly wintry.

of coarse there could be a bitter northerly northeasterly there after.

then more northeasterly then of coarse this will only progress further into an easterly and sustained cold looks likely.

and last but not least cold maintained across the country.

of coarse i'm only reading what the models are showing,but broad scale of things could transpire this way or not.

yes out into fantasy land,

but because blocks like this in winter over the uk with background signals then id be very surprised if we get short changed this time.

[karlos1983]

Some decent GEFS members

Any initial cold outbreak certainly looks like it will come from the north at the moment. 

Edited December 23, 2018 by karlos1983

[Met4Cast]

I'm taking a break from all things weather until the 27th but i'll leave with this. The 6z run is almost a carbon copy in the later timeframes to the extended EPS

Overnight 00z GEFS trending colder in FI, I'd expect to see that continue on the 6z run. Everything is going along nicely, don't be surprised to see that Mid-Block become a High-Lat block on a few runs. Time to watch this next period of cold weather trickle down into the reliable.

Have a great Christmas everyone!

[MR EXTREMES]

4 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

I'm taking a break from all things weather until the 27th but i'll leave with this. The 6z run is almost a carbon copy in the later timeframes to the extended EPS

Overnight 00z GEFS trending colder in FI, I'd expect to see that continue on the 6z run. Everything is going along nicely, don't be surprised to see that Mid-Block become a High-Lat block on a few runs. Time to watch this next period of cold weather trickle down into the reliable.

Have a great Christmas everyone!

very much agreed.